M
Marble
Guest
In the event the meeting does go ahead and with Ascot being my favourite jumps track for finding winners I thought I'd have a go.
12:55 - De La Bech carries top weight after winning extremely comfortably on ground like this last time but over a shorter distance. However, the difficulty in backing him is that before this in his first two novice hurdle runs his form was pretty average. He seems to have found around 40 lengths+ improvement in his third run, and of course if that positive curve continues he will win tomorrow, but the chances are it was a one off freak performance and will not be repeated tomorrow. Another novice I'm happy to be against is Cheat the Cheater: A positive being his trainer is in cracking form and AP McCoy is a good booking, but on what the horse has actually done I can't fancy him for the win. Okafranca is the horse I think will win as his last two wins at the right handed track Taunton seem to show that the horse is a different animal this jumps season. He shows a turn of foot even of soft/heavy ground and an eight pound rise is nothing if this horse continues the progression.
1:30 - A straight shootout between Solix and Cedre Bleu, but I prefer the former because I reckon purely on chase form he holds the edge. Cedre Bleu still appears to me to be a better hurdler than chaser, and unless that picture changes tomorrow they should enter the fella in the Tote Gold Trophy or another big handicap hurdle and try their luck at that.
2:00 - I'm definately willing to be against Smad Place. The positives are his good form at this track, albeit over much shorter, but the ground is a big unknown, and I'd pass him over for the hugely impressive Haydock Fixed Brush Hurdle winner Trustan Times, who I knew was a horse to follow after his run at Aintree at the backend of last season. He looks tough, genuine and should take the beating. Reve De Sivola may be popular on the face of his decent second to Big Bucks last time, but this is going to be a different type of race and I suspect he's better on good going.
2:30 - Hold On Julio (NAP) has some good form with Balthazar King at Cheltenham where he was giving that horse a few pounds and could be an unbeleiveably good bet here just on the premise that he he's carrying a great racing weight for a horse who hammered the 2012 Grand National winner in Neptunes Collonges last season. This is of course the case as Roberto Goldback races off a seriously high mark 0f 161 and carries top weight. Until Roberto Goldback comes to a mark back in the 150's I think he'll struggle to keep tabs on classy horses like Hold On Julio. Hey Big Spender is passed over on the basis 12 months is a long time to come back from a lay off when you're meeting horses in peak condition. Acketrac appears to like this track but will struggle against this opposition, and the same goes for Wyck Hill.
3:10 - Balder Success and Cash And Go both look too high in the weights based on what they've actually done. Olofi has a nice future but my gut instinct tells me the horse will bounce from his last run, as opposed to him winning today and becoming 4th favourite for the Champion Hurdle etc. Cause Of Causes is interesting as he has soft ground form in Ireland .He'll need tactical speed to get involved tomorrow and I can't tell whether he'll be up with the pace or held up. Tactics could be everything here. For Rattan to win it would take a real Willie Mullins special but I can't see it myself. It's A Gimme and Ranjaan are passed over as they both have no form on soft or heavy ground, whilst Lyvius looks one of the best handicapper horses of all to me off 135 and should go close for his apprectice jockey. I'm actually a bit surprised the horse is not favourite. The one to be with though is Double Ross, who has indicated a right handed track might suit, has plenty of form in the book and will thoroughly enjoy a slog in a bog. I'm expecting a big run for my money, probably from the front at 3:10 tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
3:40 - Vino Griego ran a fine race here last time over a bit further. He obviously doesn't mind cut in the ground and a bit shorter distance on the worsening ground he encounters tomorrow should suit him. I think he has a better chance than odds of 8/1 suggest and there's plenty of form in the book that indicates a mark of 128 is a winnable one, (e.g. see 4th in handicap chase at the fesitval). I'm not at all sure about the favourite on this ground, and the biggest dangers look to be El Lobo because of its attractive mark and heavy ground form or Majala if the handicapper hasn't got him by the scruff of the neck yet.
Recap of Selections:
Okafranca
Solix
Trustan Times
Hold On Julio (NAP)
Double Ross
Vino Griego
Enjoy the action and lets hope it goes ahead.
12:55 - De La Bech carries top weight after winning extremely comfortably on ground like this last time but over a shorter distance. However, the difficulty in backing him is that before this in his first two novice hurdle runs his form was pretty average. He seems to have found around 40 lengths+ improvement in his third run, and of course if that positive curve continues he will win tomorrow, but the chances are it was a one off freak performance and will not be repeated tomorrow. Another novice I'm happy to be against is Cheat the Cheater: A positive being his trainer is in cracking form and AP McCoy is a good booking, but on what the horse has actually done I can't fancy him for the win. Okafranca is the horse I think will win as his last two wins at the right handed track Taunton seem to show that the horse is a different animal this jumps season. He shows a turn of foot even of soft/heavy ground and an eight pound rise is nothing if this horse continues the progression.
1:30 - A straight shootout between Solix and Cedre Bleu, but I prefer the former because I reckon purely on chase form he holds the edge. Cedre Bleu still appears to me to be a better hurdler than chaser, and unless that picture changes tomorrow they should enter the fella in the Tote Gold Trophy or another big handicap hurdle and try their luck at that.
2:00 - I'm definately willing to be against Smad Place. The positives are his good form at this track, albeit over much shorter, but the ground is a big unknown, and I'd pass him over for the hugely impressive Haydock Fixed Brush Hurdle winner Trustan Times, who I knew was a horse to follow after his run at Aintree at the backend of last season. He looks tough, genuine and should take the beating. Reve De Sivola may be popular on the face of his decent second to Big Bucks last time, but this is going to be a different type of race and I suspect he's better on good going.
2:30 - Hold On Julio (NAP) has some good form with Balthazar King at Cheltenham where he was giving that horse a few pounds and could be an unbeleiveably good bet here just on the premise that he he's carrying a great racing weight for a horse who hammered the 2012 Grand National winner in Neptunes Collonges last season. This is of course the case as Roberto Goldback races off a seriously high mark 0f 161 and carries top weight. Until Roberto Goldback comes to a mark back in the 150's I think he'll struggle to keep tabs on classy horses like Hold On Julio. Hey Big Spender is passed over on the basis 12 months is a long time to come back from a lay off when you're meeting horses in peak condition. Acketrac appears to like this track but will struggle against this opposition, and the same goes for Wyck Hill.
3:10 - Balder Success and Cash And Go both look too high in the weights based on what they've actually done. Olofi has a nice future but my gut instinct tells me the horse will bounce from his last run, as opposed to him winning today and becoming 4th favourite for the Champion Hurdle etc. Cause Of Causes is interesting as he has soft ground form in Ireland .He'll need tactical speed to get involved tomorrow and I can't tell whether he'll be up with the pace or held up. Tactics could be everything here. For Rattan to win it would take a real Willie Mullins special but I can't see it myself. It's A Gimme and Ranjaan are passed over as they both have no form on soft or heavy ground, whilst Lyvius looks one of the best handicapper horses of all to me off 135 and should go close for his apprectice jockey. I'm actually a bit surprised the horse is not favourite. The one to be with though is Double Ross, who has indicated a right handed track might suit, has plenty of form in the book and will thoroughly enjoy a slog in a bog. I'm expecting a big run for my money, probably from the front at 3:10 tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
3:40 - Vino Griego ran a fine race here last time over a bit further. He obviously doesn't mind cut in the ground and a bit shorter distance on the worsening ground he encounters tomorrow should suit him. I think he has a better chance than odds of 8/1 suggest and there's plenty of form in the book that indicates a mark of 128 is a winnable one, (e.g. see 4th in handicap chase at the fesitval). I'm not at all sure about the favourite on this ground, and the biggest dangers look to be El Lobo because of its attractive mark and heavy ground form or Majala if the handicapper hasn't got him by the scruff of the neck yet.
Recap of Selections:
Okafranca
Solix
Trustan Times
Hold On Julio (NAP)
Double Ross
Vino Griego
Enjoy the action and lets hope it goes ahead.
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