Analyze this!

krizon

krizon

At the Start
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Looking back at the HARBINGER thread, I see there's controversy over using sectional timings, etc. Just so as to perhaps kick off a thread where everyone can have a good old rootle round the subject, I'm wondering what you serious punting folks consider the most important analytical tools, and in what order? So far on forums, I've figured that pro or semi-pros are using:

Pedigrees

Form

Sectional timings

Ratings (the handicapper's, and their own)

Dosage

Going preferences where known

Weight (the jockey's, not the horse's)

Draw bias

Trainer's form

Jockey's form

Miscellaneous - like change of yard, tack, return from rest, etc.

Bounce (if you believe in it, of course) :D

With all of the above, does anyone favour one or two tools more than the others, or are pretty much all of them taken into account with every punting decision? That would seem like waaay too much work to me, but there have to be certain tools used in analysing your choice's chances and I'd love to hear what they are, and even maybe why?
 
a cracking thread Kri - I do hope we aren't just going to keep getting wise crack one liners though like we normally do on any thread where actual methods are discussed:)
 
Racing analysis should be as multi-dimensional as possible, without adopting hare-brained approaches for the sake of it.

Of the above, I take account of all other than: dosage (there are more robust ways of analysing pedigrees, imo); jockey form (though I am looking into this currently to establish whether I am correct); and Bounce (it is not that it does not exist, just that I am very sceptical as to whether it can be isolated and turned to one's advantage).

To the above you MUST add race reading/video analysis and you could add analysis of overall times and paddock inspection.

And, of course, the whole caboodle should lead to an appreciation of what price a horse should be backed or laid at, into which an understanding of the dynamics of the market feeds.

I feel sure I have missed several important factors!
 
I do have an honest interest in it all - my idea of massive punting is the tenner I set aside for the dogs at Hove on Sunday (total loss) - because over the years of looking at all sorts of posts on three forums, everyone has different ideas about what they find the most vital tools to use in trying to get the edge over other punters.

I tried hard to understand a very kind explanation of dosage some years back by a patient (and probably pained) SteveM, waded through 'The Punter's Pal' donated to me some time ago, read John McCririck's Channel 4 book on betting, and still like to quiz colleagues about why they support a particular horse. A lot of the time for some of them it's down to who's riding it - some swear by Richard Hughes, others at him!

I like paddock-watching as a tool to seeing which horse has the edge of presence over others, looking for the signs I've mentioned before in conformation. Straight shoulders = daisy-cutter or very limited action = best on G, GF, for example. But when you've got a quality field of similarly-rated animals, all liking the ground and all able to handle the course (perhaps they're all CDs), then... what next? What's the next really good tool to pick up? Okay if you've got TimeForm to hand and can pick your way through that, but what if you don't? Too late to look back through pedigrees and think, "Hmm, sheeyit, I can't remember if WOODMANs liked it soft or firm... " so where to?

It would be so interesting to get a real discussion on who finds what their premier kit in the toolbox for crafting that winning zinger that makes all the blood, sweat and tears worthwhile!
 
Oh - there's another one! Pace analysis from JAP. JAP, what's the difference between pace analysis and sectionals? How is one different to the other, and what will it show for you? I always thought they were the same thing, so shows what I know. I know nothing!
 
krizon said:
I do have an honest interest in it all - my idea of massive punting is the tenner I set aside for the dogs at Hove on Sunday (total loss)
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Betting on the dogs is easy, just back anything which is a bigger price with the bookmakers than it is on Betfair. Hove isn't as bad as some (getting a dog there myself with some colleagues) but generally, graded dogs racing is the most corrupt thing out.

Regarding tools, I find compiling my own standard times and speed ratings from them the most valuable.
 
Might see you there some time, Gamla. My friend Carol, who has a half-share in PLACE THE DUCHESS and co-bred TRY THE CHANCE with me, has several with Claude Gardiner and Derek Knight. She also runs them at Womblesdon. Best of luck with yours - it's wonderfully exciting stuff and they are such gorgeous animals.

I hate to sound totally nutso, but how would you compile your own standard times? Aren't the posted standard times the ones you'd work from?
 
krizon said:
I hate to sound totally nutso, but how would you compile your own standard times? Aren't the posted standard times the ones you'd work from?
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I find the RP ones to be very flawed. It's a very labour intensive laborious process but basically need to note down every time and class of race at each distance for every track excluding two year old races until you have about 40-50 of each and then calculate them from there!
 
Ber-luddy hell!! Well, I sure hope that much effort does pay divvies for you, because I can see a huuuuge amount of effort in that. Must say, when I first joined the old Ch.4 racing forum, I'd no idea just how much detail punters (proper ones, anyway) were prepared to go into and how many theories they were prepared to examine in their quest for the edge. It seems to put stamp collecting and train-spotting in the shade!

Thanks for the explanation, though - I'd wondered how they were arrived at and now that's something else learned.
 
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Indeed, I'm still missing four or five UK tracks and most of France and Ireland so you have to tread carefully.

Hoping to make more progress over the Winter on them.
 
Going against common perception and hype is a huge one for me.

Take the latest Arkle as a good example of this. The perception there was that if Captain Cee Bee stayed on his feet he would win the race as he looked all over the winner in his previous contest when falling at the last behind Sizing Europe. But another way of looking at that race was that SE wasn't at his best that day as it was his third race in three months and maybe he was a horse that was better when fresh. But this way of looking at the Arkle was not very common hence he huge price differential between the two horses.


A lot of foreign horses still go off at value prices over here as well. Stacelita went off at the same odds as the Stoute trained Strawberrydaiquiri in the Nassau despite being a superior filly by about 8 or 9 lbs at her best.


In his last book Dave Nevison was of the opinion that the market, especially on Betfair, is very efficient these days. I totally disagree. The same hype, errant perceptions, market bias towards certain trainers and mug sheep trading still goes on and always will do. What else but the latter could possibly explain Notre Pere's mental drift from 10 to 26 before his Welsh National win?
 
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I use sectional times primarily to identify the ability of a horse that may not be immediately apparent from its performance otherwise and in order to establish the pace of a race after the event.

By pace analysis I meant more the forward-looking aspect of things, whereby you might reckon the race has too many front-runners/pace-forcers, or the opposite. Given that sectionals have to be done by hand in this country you are unlikely to be able to get this info from them readily.

Trends is another angle.

I have spent so much of my time debunking the way trends are usually presented that I have, oddly, become rather fond of them, providing they are done properly.
 
Euronymous said:
A lot of foreign horses still go off at value prices over here as well. Stacelita went off at the same odds as the Stoute trained Strawberrydaiquiri in the Nassau despite being a superior filly by about 8 or 9 lbs at her best.


In his last book Dave Nevison was of the opinion that the market, especially on Betfair, is very efficient these days. I totally disagree. The same hype, errant perceptions, market bias towards certain trainers and mug sheep trading still goes on and always will do. What else but the latter could possibly explain Notre Pere's mental drift from 10 to 26 before his Welsh National win?
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Agree massively with your first points, Stoute, Jarvis and Cumani hotpots are great animals to take on. As I said at the time, that Jarvis filly in the Oaks (Sajjha?) was an absurd price off the back off a pissy maiden win at Sandown, the Lanigan filly had achived the very same and was five times the price.

Foreign horses are nearly always overpriced, bar the true top top races like the PoW, King George etc. Equaino going off at 25/1 for the Kings Stand a few years ago was a fine example. As were the Wes Ward animals at Ascot last year, I know a few forumites who netted a small fortune off those.

Betfair used to be very efficient but it's not what it was in the mornings. If you wanted to back a horse at 8/1 instead of 5/1 at an evening meeting, you could easily knock it out on the machine overnight for a few grand and manipulate the price. Nevison isn't what he was either.
 
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Just to follow up Euronymous' opening point, this isn't really a specific approach to analysis but I am a strong believer that punters can place too much store by what has just happened (aka "availability bias") rather than see the bigger/longer-term picture. The Arkle might have been an example of such.

Then again, there are also many instances where they seem to react too little to what has just happened due to longer-held assumptions that they cannot shrug off (but let's not get into yet another discussion about Harbinger's Ascot run...)
 
Thanks, JAP, re pace and timings - something else learned tonight!

Can I ask you chaps what the real meaning of 'value' is? I remember one of our now absent forum member firmly debunking the notion that it meant 'value for money' - i.e., the horse being at longer odds than it should be. However, I can't think now what it was he thought it represented! If a 'value bet' doesn't mean 'value for the amount of the bet' (meaning the odds are too generous), then what the heck does it mean, please?
 
Pace is a very sexy factor these days with the explosion of closing your position in running. On certain courses horse x and y might have the exact same form chance but the one likely to be on the pace will be a point shorter. Punting never stops evolving.
 
When you say looking into pedigrees, I presume you mean looking at what ground and courses certain stallion's progeny runs best on etc?

Being ignorant on the subject, what exactly do sectional timings involve?

What the ferk is dosage and equally, what the ferk is bounce?

How would you go about doing your own ratings?

How important would you say jockey's form is? Surely the best jockey in the world won't win anything if he's riding Eeyore? Personally, trainer form is much more important...
 
J Alfred Prufrock said:
Just to follow up Euronymous' opening point, this isn't really a specific approach to analysis but I am a strong believer that punters can place too much store by what has just happened (aka "availability bias") rather than see the bigger/longer-term picture.
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As much as this may invite derision, having Youmzain at the price he has been in the Arc the last few years is a good example of this..
 
krizon said:
Can I ask you chaps what the real meaning of 'value' is? I remember one of our now absent forum member firmly debunking the notion that it meant 'value for money' - i.e., the horse being at longer odds than it should be. However, I can't think now what it was he thought it represented! If a 'value bet' doesn't mean 'value for the amount of the bet' (meaning the odds are too generous), then what the heck does it mean, please?
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I always try to price every race I'm going to have a bet on to a market of 100% and then bet the one or ones that are significantly out from my own prices. Quite often though, you can tell immediately if a horses price is out of line once you've got used to pricing races up.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I always try to price every race I'm going to have a bet on to a market of 100% and then bet the one or ones that are significantly out from my own prices. Quite often though, you can tell immediately if a horses price is out of line once you've got used to pricing races up.
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Using all the factors mentioned (trainer form, speed ratings, ground, pace bias etc.) to compile the above is IMO the key to successful punting - you're never going to make money if you're taking 12/1 about something that should be 25/1 or backing 1/3 chances at 2/11 etc.

The same is true of all betting - racing, greyhounds, rugby, football.
 
The only time I have ever cleared a profit consistently was when I was prepared to work at it. I remember one period where I was focussing on staying northern handicap chases for the winter, and I did very well. It was boring as fuck, though.
 
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