Ante Post Question

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SlimChance

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For the past year I've been intrigued as to why every prominent horse in Antepost markets are arbs on Betfair. It quite simply can't be as simple that you can take a profit. The market must believe that the ante post prices are too big with the firms. Is it now a case that horses are far more likely to show up in their intended race and the market is becoming more efficient? I read articles from 'old school' punters who say there is no value in ante post betting but the Betfair market points to the complete opposite being the case.

Any thought?
 
Only true about the shorties (in relative terms)......Betfair always bigger if you're chipping away at the edges.

Are there regular arbs? I confess I don't pay enough attention to the breadth of the market myself to know. If so people are presumably being accommodated, but how much can you actually get on? The prices to Back/Lay tend to suggest brisk volume, but how much of this is dormant arb money? And even if, for arguments sake, we concede that a fair percentage of it is arb cash, the differentials are generally marginal, so any larceny isn't going to be in Brinks-Matt territory.

It's an easy turn, and of course not to be sniffed-at, but arbing in a market essentially excludes you from more-or-less any other play in the same market - and I'd want to retain the flexibility.

It's a personal thing, but the money on offer would be insufficient reward to miss-out on all the pre-amble fun.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Only true about the shorties (in relative terms)......Betfair always bigger if you're chipping away at the edges.

Are there regular arbs? I confess I don't pay enough attention to the breadth of the market myself to know. If so people are presumably being accommodated, but how much can you actually get on? The prices to Back/Lay tend to suggest brisk volume, but how much of this is dormant arb money? And even if, for arguments sake, we concede that a fair percentage of it is arb cash, the differentials are generally marginal, so any larceny isn't going to be in Brinks-Matt territory.

It's an easy turn, and of course not to be sniffed-at, but arbing in a market essentially excludes you from more-or-less any other play in the same market - and I'd want to retain the flexibility.

It's a personal thing, but the money on offer would be insufficient reward to miss-out on all the pre-amble fun.
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You completely miss the point. I'm not suggesting we arb these I'm suggesting that these regular arbs point to the ante post markets offered by bookmakers as being inefficient.
 
SlimChance said:
You completely miss the point. I'm not suggesting we arb these I'm suggesting that these regular arbs point to the ante post markets offered by bookmakers as being inefficient.
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You're right....I completely missed it. There is a reason for this, which - for matters of jurisprudence - I will not share with you at this time.

OK, I get you now.

The market gets increasingly efficient as time goes on and targets become more certain. I don't find it hugely surprising that there are ricks here and therr at this stage. This far out, with this much market competition, and with this much uncertainty, layers can afford to - indeed they're pretty-much compelled to - take a few positions. The High Street/Internet mobs will (I imagine?) have massively over-broke ante-post books anyway, and have ample opportunity to adjust further, before they all fall into NRNB line and consolidate their prices (again over-broke across the piece).

Now, all that said, there's every chance I've completely missed the point again - just let me know, and I'll have another bash. :D
 
Grasshopper said:
You're right....I completely missed it. There is a reason for this, which - for matters of jurisprudence - I will not share with you at this time.

OK, I get you now.

The market gets increasingly efficient as time goes on and targets become more certain. I don't find it hugely surprising that there are ricks here and therr at this stage. This far out, with this much market competition, and with this much uncertainty, layers can afford to - indeed they're pretty-much compelled to - take a few positions. The High Street/Internet mobs will (I imagine?) have massively over-broke ante-post books anyway, and have ample opportunity to adjust further, before they all fall into NRNB line and consolidate their prices (again over-broke across the piece).

Now, all that said, there's every chance I've completely missed the point again - just let me know, and I'll have another bash. :D
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Now you're on the same page. Bookmakers make NO margin on these markets. I think if you concentrated solely on these markets you could grind out 6-7% easy. I'd be more inclined to put the prices which are most wrong in multiples though to compound the error. How about a forum syndicate to do ante post multis?
 
Grasshopper said:
A good idea in principle.....all-out forum war as a result is not a double-figure price. :D
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Even to just go through the markets and pool ideas together. We're all basically doing that anyway. Leave it with me and I'll throw up all the arbs tomorrow.
 
Bear in mind that with ante-post there is the opportunity cost of tying up your capital to be considered too - need to knock this off your profits.

Not intending to teach you to suck eggs mind.
 
The ante-post Festival markets are a perfect opportunity Slim. As I'm sure Grassy knows I focus on it every year and most of my turnover is focused on taking the margins from Oct/Nov through to March. Benny's right though you do tie up a fair bit of capital.

It's important not to be greedy though, and getting out and going back in regularly before and after key trials is important. Better to lose a point or two than to do your dough, which can be really easy with injuries or results not going your way and the market reacting the wrong way.

I will trade the last of it off during the week before and even up to the morning of racing during the Festival. I won't have a penny left (apart from maybe a seperate handicap potshot or two), and I'll then have a smallish bet on what I really fancy each day having looked at all the races again the night before.

The bottom line though is it's been very profitable season after season. I just urge you to do it offline and not publically!
 
BennyB said:
Bear in mind that with ante-post there is the opportunity cost of tying up your capital to be considered too - need to knock this off your profits.

Not intending to teach you to suck eggs mind.
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This is January. It's 9 weeks. I'm merely talking about constructing multiples with value compounded by value. If you do a Lucky 15 for a £1 it will be a sound investment.
 
SlimChance said:
This is January. It's 9 weeks. I'm merely talking about constructing multiples with value compounded by value. If you do a Lucky 15 for a £1 it will be a sound investment.
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If you're serious, you best get cracking.

I figure it will take 8 weeks to agree the selection criteria. :D
 
Supreme Novice
Valtour 12/1 (13 to lay)

Arkle
Valdez 20/1 (19.5 to lay)

Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly 10/3 (4.2 to lay)

National Hunt Chase
Mendip Express 10/1 (10 to lay)

RSA Chase
Smad Place 14/1 (14.5 to lay)

Champion Bumper
Black Herculeus 16/1 (17 to lay)

Jewson Novice Chase
Wonderful Charm 8/1 (8.8 to lay)
Oscar Whisky 10/1 (11 to lay)

Rynair Chase
Benefficient 10/1 (10.5 to lay)
Marito 20/1 (20 to lay)

World Hurdle
More of That 8/1 (8.8 to lay)

Albert Bartlett
Faugheen 8/1 (8.8 to lay)

Gold Cup
Cue Card 8/1 (9 to lay)
Al Ferof 20/1 (20 to lay)

Bookmakers with most of these prices

Boyles 5
Powers 5
Ladbrokes 5
Hills 4
Bet365 4
Betfred 4
888.com 4
Stan James 3

Anyone putting any of these horses together in multiples at the prices quoted is putting their money in good. That's the point I'm making. **** the form let the market guide you.


.
 
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There is money to be made from these markets - even though the bookies are constantly shortening horses, sometimes for no apparent reason.

"We" tend to make full use of Hill's 2nd place free bet offer in the few months from Nov to March, using mine and the wife's account to the max £25 focusing mainly on races with what I'd class as close to ideal terms, i.e. between 5-10 runners with the market largely dominated by 2 or 3.

Any winnings are welcomed but free bet returns are re-staked each week, normally focusing on a festival non handicap one per week.

In the majority of circumstances the stake(s) are split between 2 horses; one that is almost certain to run, barring injury and another that offers slightly bigger odds but whose participation is less certain. Sometimes top-up free bets and/or cash are applied as the picture becomes clearer.

Saturday's racing was pretty good in that respect with Dingo Bay and Oleohneh paying for the days bets - and a touch more to boot, and Rolecarr and Rivellino returning the max free bets. It goes without saying that it doesn't always work quite so well though...

This week's free bets have been split across Dodging Bullets (7s) and Felix Yonger (10s) in the Arkle.
 
4 of the 14 prices are now gone. I wouldn't mind have the 4 of them in a multiple. Certainly worth browsing the Betfair market.
 
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