Anti Post Betting

E

EC21

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Thought I would carry this from the what are you betting thread. Think it is worth a chat about.

I know you love your ante post Euro, as do many on here, but it is so risky compared to actually looking at racing each day and knowing the conditions on the day and the oppo surely? I admit I have hated ante post and never really bothered at all with it. I find it is hard enough on the day without picking months or weeks before.

I'm going to ask a question to all ante post bettors. Apart from the times when you do get on at an incredible price, and win, do you not need a crystal ball for this? and maybe some of your picks in the past that keep you drawn to ante post, were more luck than judgement.

Not criticising at all here, and we all do stuff different, but I never really got ante post betting.

Would like to hear what people think about ante post, positives and negatives.
 
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Yes anti post betting is fraught with danger.

A couple years ago I think it was I remember Euro put up plenty of good ones on the flat, to put it mildly which I found very interesting. Not necessarily weeks or months before either, sometimes 3 or 4 days before the final decs came out.

I just use the anti post thread that I actually started as a place to discuss future races which obviously don't fit in to the daily 'what are you backing thread'. I hope other posters see it somewhat this way aswell, as opposed to judging it purely on profit and loss.

I think Edgt made a telling comment after Cheltenham this year about peoples anti post selections on the anti post competition thread. I think the gist of Edgts post was that most of us did shite. I think I backed eight altogether maybe only one made it to post!!
 
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Ah well. At least I spelt it right when I started the ante post plan/propositions thread on this forum. How I spell it depends on what mood I'm in I reckon.
 
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I admit it annoys the feck out of me too but I'm too much of a gentleman to comment :lol:

I keep a separate ante-post log (separate from my football one which is massively in profit and makes even the most attractive ISA look pish value) to see how I get on over the season. I've only had two winners: The Big Bite 33/1 at Newbury in February, which left me £1 down overall at the time, and Corach Rambler 7/1 in the National, which was a big bet that put me a long way in front since then.

But I've had years when I haven't done well. I keep saying I'll ease off and I'm regularly still within one page of A4 of a log over the season. I want to get that down too to half a page of better selections.

But it really is each to his own. People like me who have been brought up on the joys of winning longshots probably can't help speculating that wee bit but I cannot stress enough the importance of logging such bets.

That said, I no longer log 'normal' bets; I rely on regular checks of balances in my accounts and they are all linked to a dedicated bank account, the monthly statements for which tell me all I need to know. As long as I'm not depositing anything over a season I'm happy.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I admit it annoys the feck out of me too but I'm too much of a gentleman to comment :lol:

I keep a separate ante-post log (separate from my football one which is massively in profit and makes even the most attractive ISA look pish value) to see how I get on over the season. I've only had two winners: The Big Bite 33/1 at Newbury in February, which left me £1 down overall at the time, and Corach Rambler 7/1 in the National, which was a big bet that put me a long way in front since then.

But I've had years when I haven't done well. I keep saying I'll ease off and I'm regularly still within one page of A4 of a log over the season. I want to get that down too to half a page of better selections.

But it really is each to his own. People like me who have been brought up on the joys of winning longshots probably can't help speculating that wee bit but I cannot stress enough the importance of logging such bets.

That said, I no longer log 'normal' bets; I rely on regular checks of balances in my accounts and they are all linked to a dedicated bank account, the monthly statements for which tell me all I need to know. As long as I'm not depositing anything over a season I'm happy.
Click to expand...

I tell you what annoys me firstly, pain of any sort, thats it really:D Then to a lesser degree, annoying people. I think thats it really:D

Keep going DO, forum is always the better for you in it.
 
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My ante post betting is mostly confined to the Cheltenham Festival where I’ve had a reasonable level of success over the last few years.

Of course this has come with it’s fair share of disappointments. I can recall a few getting injured and OFS a few days after I’d backed them. But there have been highlights too such as having 16/1 about 11/8 winning favourites and I’m not about to forgo ante post to miss out on those occasions

Good AP value is harder to find nowadays with favourites often ridiculously short prices several months before the event so that AP turnover has diminished and there have been several occasions when I’ve opted to wait for the day of race


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Ante-post is a good way of exercising the betting brain, imo, as it forces you to think think a little like a race-planner.

Which 2m novice hurdlers running in Nov/Dec might get into the Betfair Hurdle? Which second season chasers with form at intermediate trips only, might improve for the step-up in a Hennessy? Which races are likely to cut-up, because many of the horses are double-entered or are more likely to run elsewhere? Which entries look optimistic at face-value, but are for unexposed horses with smaller trainers who are in good form? Are there any entries from 'target trainer' to consider? These are typical of the things I think about, when having an ante-post bet.

It's obviously dependent on the market for a given race, but my usual MO is to take a large Win price on Betfair, and back it up with an each-way bet at best-odds on the High Street. This often means you have put yourself into a great position on a race, whilst shrewdly managing your stakes.

The satisfaction gained from a successful ante-post bet outweighs (for me, at any rate) that gained for an on-the-day bet, as I tend to think I've worked harder and smarter to figure-out the winner.


FWIW, I largely exclude any Cheltenham Festival novice events from my ante-post bets nowadays, as it's generally too difficult to predict months, weeks and often even days in advance, which Mullins hotpot is going to run where.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I admit it annoys the feck out of me too but I'm too much of a gentleman to comment :lol:

I keep a separate ante-post log (separate from my football one which is massively in profit and makes even the most attractive ISA look pish value) to see how I get on over the season. I've only had two winners: The Big Bite 33/1 at Newbury in February, which left me £1 down overall at the time, and Corach Rambler 7/1 in the National, which was a big bet that put me a long way in front since then.

But I've had years when I haven't done well. I keep saying I'll ease off and I'm regularly still within one page of A4 of a log over the season. I want to get that down too to half a page of better selections.

But it really is each to his own. People like me who have been brought up on the joys of winning longshots probably can't help speculating that wee bit but I cannot stress enough the importance of logging such bets.

That said, I no longer log 'normal' bets; I rely on regular checks of balances in my accounts and they are all linked to a dedicated bank account, the monthly statements for which tell me all I need to know. As long as I'm not depositing anything over a season I'm happy.
Click to expand...

Talk of the upcoming Classics on the other thread brought me back to this.

My log for the 2023 Flat season has eight ante-post bets at this stage.

Five are/have been non-runners, including three on the same horse in the same race.

Only two of the bets are still 'open', one in this weekend's 2000G (LBB, 9/2) and the other Naval Power (25/1 ew) for the Derby. The LBB bet is a biggish one and the win would dwarf the others so it will be a sore one if it doesn't even turn up.
 
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