The figure over jumps is 33% of course (still well below what's normally required) Champleve, Azertyuiop, Well Chief and VPU were all 100%, as indeed Moscow Flyer would have been on completed starts. Only Ventana Canyon 40% and Contraband 25% were under a 66% threshold.
I take on board that jumping and hurdles are different and clearly some horses are better equipped than others to perform the task, but losing horses tend to make a habit of it, as even if the horse always was a prospective chaser, there shoudl have been enough opportunities for his class to push his career record beyond 18% regardless of the obstacles. It all suggests to me that he lacks the required class to win races. By the time they took their Arkle in most aspiring group 1 winners would expect to be over 50%.
Champleve 80%
Or Royal 62%
Tidal Bay 58%
Well Chief 57%
Azerty 55%
Flagship 55%
VPU 55%
MWDS 50%
Moscow 48%
Contraband 38%
Ventana 33%
There's a quite tight spread there with 5 horses covered by just 3%, or 8 by 10%.
At 18% Calgary Bay is way off the radar. Even the poorest career performer has twice his strike rate.
I think the horse has been subjected to quick races before, but the only time he's been subjected to a really fast one at Championship speed (winners TS's against RPR's) that I could find he came 18th.
As someone who's fond of the gospel of St Paul, you might be interested to hear what Nicholls said of the horse at a preview evening in Exeter.
" I can't have Calgary Bay, his form isn't great. He's a decent horse but not for me."
