Ascot Tomorrow

G

Guest_

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
14,178
Location
Ireland
Twist Magic a good think tomorrow? Wouldnt surprise me to see Schindlers Hunt reverse form with Mansony on this testing going so a forecast with SH and TM might be in order.

Lough Derg is out again imagine tomorrow will confirm he won the last day due to a cracking ride rather than a sudden improvement.

Gaspara takes on Refinement again. Refinement had the beating of her at Kempton but Gaspara showed more at Cheltenham the last day and seems to be coming back to form.
 
The one reservation I would have is that twist Magic has not gone further than 2 miles, whereas all the others would handle two and a half easily. If the ground is testing enough they could make things difficult for him. I wouldn't want to risk being on beans and toast for a month by opposing him though.

I agree Schindlers Hunt could be a decent bet to reverse with Mansony - hopefully a betfair match bet will be in the offing.
 
Not so sure Schindler's Hunt will reverse Christmas form with Mansony myself. Granted, he'll have his ground tommorrow, but I still just think that he is being overrated on the basis of his novice Grade 1 wins in a couple of the weakest Grade 1 fields I can remember. Mansony certainly won't be inconvenienced by the testing ground either and should certainly improve for going right-handed as well.

That said, I wouldn't be going laying Schindler's Hunt at 9's or backing Mansony. Might do a Mansony-Twist Magic reverse forecast though.

As much as I was looking forward to seeing Nickname at Fairyhouse on Sunday, it would really be a race to savour if he showed up tommorrow...
 
Although the going is down as Soft, it's apparently not that bad at Ascot - not much worse than Sandown was on their last big day, and not Heavy. Hope it's stopped raining...

I too have a RFCT lines up for Twist Magic and Mansony, also Lough Derg and Penzance, and Mahogany Blaze and Marodima.

Metaphoric and Binocular are going to be another popular pairing in the opener, but I have a hunch Crack Away Jack will go well, and will handle the ground. He's got Ruby up, too

The mare's race is a toss up btwn three or four - not sure Gaspara can go that far, esp in testing ground; Material World has had a stress fracture which is always a worry - will she 'look after herself'? - and Refinement doesn't have AP up to make her mind up for her. Labelthou had a bad fall lto only three weeks ago. On balance I'll prob risk MW, hoping I'm not just being sentimental! Or just watch...

The final race too is hard to call, it's btwn three for me: Regal Heights, Nadover and Patricksninteenth should be the first three home - but in what order I can't yet decide
 
Wouldn't be rushing to back any of the forecasts with the first 2 in the market, Hoh Vis may spoil the party in the 13.10 and I'd expect Tamarinbleu to give Twist Magic most to think about, although probably wont get within 10 lengths of him in the 13.45. The 15.30 should see Tikram running well, solid e/w with 8 runners or more.

If Haydock gets the go-ahead I could see something like Mr McGoldrick upsetting the Straw Bear / Afsoun forecast, again nice e/w bet if 8 or more. Idle Talk interest me in the feature chase, I know they have reservations about the ground but I'd take a chance on him ploughing through it at the prices, I'm surprsied to see Our Vic out again and would prefer Dream Alliance to put last times run behind him and figure prominently at the finish.
 
Haydock cancelled sadly.

I'm going on the presumption that the Ascot ground is not going to be *very* testing. We'll see after the first I expect; I agree Hoh Viss would certainly come into calculations if it's riding heavier than Soft.
 
:P :laughing: :laughing: Martin!

Have been over my last night's selections in more detail, but haven't changed my mind about much... if anything! I think Tamarinbleu needs further than 2.1f these days. The interesting horse in the race is Ashley Brook as he will be getting his ground for a change - you wouldn't think a horse with his speed would like Soft, but he does. Too risky for back, given his FFs tho!

Agree with Melendez that TM's going into new territory re distance here, which gives the Irish horses a chance
 
They finished quite tired in that last race so i`m taking Twist Magic on. It`s a stiffer course than Sandown, it`s over a furlong further than the Tingle Creek and the ground is softer.

I`ve backed Mansony at 5.5 & Schindlers Hunt at 12 on the machine.
 
Big fan of Twist Magic but I can make a case for a few of the others. Just a straight lay at 1.69 to give me a decent price for the field.
 
Listening to Nicholls... can a horse "cruise there" and "not act on the ground" at the same time?
 
Twist Magic appears not to quite stay 2 miles in this going - he was going very easily, better than than the winner, 1/2 a mile out.
 
I've got a theory too, but want to see the times and variance first. It sounded to me as if PJN had made his excuse before hand. I wonder whether a combination of the extra furlong, the quick pace on the softer surface, and possibly the heavier ground in Swinley Bottom didn't get him. He looked to have the race at his mercy, and then emptied
 
Reluctantly, and some will accuse me of unnecessary harshness, I'd apportion a fair bit of blame on Ruby for TM's defeat.

Tamarinbleu stayed on well enough to suggest he'd have won anyway but I remarked to Mrs O as they took the fourth or fifth last that Ruby might have cost TM the race.

At a point where they were running uphill in soft ground, Tamarinbleu got a wee bit close to the fence and TM jumped almost upsides, apparently cantering. Ruby took a pull and the horse lost its rhythm. The next fence came quite soon, by which time Scu Jr had geed the leader into a good momentum while TM was trying to get back into his, and after that Ruby was changing his hands and trying to get TM going again but never managed it.

It would have been interesting to see how the race would have developed if Ruby had let TM stride on while he was going so well.
 
I don't think that's harsh DO - I was going to post something similar but watching on a tiny portable TV I couldn't quite make out for sure if Ruby definitely did take a pull. It probably wouldn't have made any difference given how TM tired in the straight, but as you say it would have been interesting.
 
Yet the novices race was 8.20 secs slower than the Chandler.

The contribution made by stamina in a race over minimum distance is often under appreciated, as people tend to associate it with staying trips. The Chandler looked fast, and the times suggest it was. That being so, it normally requires a horse to be effective at more than the bare minimum to succeed, (the extra furlong only compounded this). My initial take would be that TM is very close to his operational limit over a fast run 2 miles on a stiff course. The ground won't have assisted his cause, but I'm not sure it was the absolute reason that Nicholls presented it as. The Chandler time isn't necessarily pointing towards heavy ground anyway. If there's any merit in his assertion, it would probably be that the break seemingly occurred at Swinley Bottom which would be lowest point, and likely recepient of any substantial extraneous water.

Warblers jury still out :)
 
I think the holding ground in Swinley Bottom - where they'd dolled off a fence - totally threw Twist Magic and affected his jumping. He looked increasingly punch drunk from then on in and almost came down 2 out. The changes in going at Ascot are very tough for horses, esp speed horses/non-stayers. Looking at Tamarinbleu's record, I thought he'd need a lot further, but the ground was after all holding enough to suit a stayer, and that's what happened - look at Ashley Brook too. The fact they ran a fast race anyway is interesting, will look forweard to Warbler's number-cruching

I don't think this race has much bearing on the likely outcome of the Ch Chase, but imo TM will need a while to recover from that confidence-sapping experience.

I can feel for Twister jft, *I* was shaking when Mahogany Blaze was overhauled cry
What a brave effort though

Thank God I got the Tri up in the 3.30 as well as my e/w in Regal Heights, that all paid for the days losses :rolleyes: That was a fine display from Regal heights, carrying top weight in the going
 
Back
Top