Ayr Gold Cup

[Desert Orchid]

A bit late in the day for opening a thread on the race but I didn't want to clutter the daily backing thread.

I know it's the kind of race that appeals to the likes of me, Outsider, Chaumi and Yorick since we like trying to sniff out long-price value.

Anyway, the figures haven't been doing too badly in the big sprint handicaps this season so I'm hoping the blunderbuss will hit another winner or a couple of big-price placers.

As ever, my own picks are based on my own interpretation of the form combined with how the ratings and odds stack up.

So these are my figures (the MON column) for the big race today with 118+ the figure I think the winner will need to beat to have a chance of winning. Figures in the column next to it are old and older form. My musings on the race are given below, edited for the withdrawal of JLP. The BO column shows the best odds available at the time of collating the ratings, ie around lunchtime yesterday and before JLP came out.

[TABLE="width: 527"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
118+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Desert Cop
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]? e
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]28/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Northern Express
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p t
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mondammej
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][124et?]
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lethal Levi
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Probe
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p t?
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Aberama Gold
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gorak
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Aleezdancer
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Paws For Thought
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Significantly
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD][123edy]
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Summerghand
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Montassib
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]p t?
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Albasheer
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ramazan
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]p t s
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bielsa
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][121]
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Magical Spirit
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mr Wagyu
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] It Just Takes Time
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Orazio
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gweedore
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]p t
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fast Response
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lequinto
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rohaan
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]126
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Escobar
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]126 e t
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is arguably the best big sprint handicap of this season with no fewer than 13 of the 25 runners rated 100 or more. The Wokingham, for the same money, attracted 14 out of 27 and the even more valuable Stewards’ Cup disappoints by comparison with only eight out of 27. This season, though, a rating as low as 91 has made the cut, which may come as a relief for connections of Mr Wagyu who had appeared likely to need a penalty to get in but now does so comfortably.

Quite a while back I took 20/1 Summerghand because I was sure he was being trained for the race but I was very disappointed that they decided to compromise his chance by getting his mark up from 97. He went up for not winning the Great St Wilfrid, which was ‘bad’ enough from my point of view, but then dead-heated at York to pick up a further penalty. He won cosily enough last year off 102, which included a penalty, but is actually a pound better off with the third, Juan Les Pins for beating him 1½ lengths. They said earlier in the year that he’s an autumn horse so they’ve maybe trying to make hay in valuable races off his low mark ahead of this, and Tudhope is a local boy.

Also in my ante-post ‘portfolio’ are Mr Wagyu at 25/1 and Rohaan at 20/1. I’ve been doing my conkers in punting Mr Wagyu this season after his effort at Epsom at the Derby meeting but he’s been disappointing since. I’d thought Ascot, then Goodwood then here was the route but he’s disappointed until showing a bit more last time at the Curragh. I still think Rohaan isn’t far off G1 level and I wouldn’t want to have to choose between him and Summerghand at levels in a non-handicap. Their respective fates might come down to luck in running or the draw.

These are drawn 15 and higher so I’ll need something from the lower numbers just in case there’s a bias over there. Bielsa might do the donkey work over there and drag the likes of Desert Cop and Lethal Levi into it but I’ll hold off until the morning before deciding about backing them in case they drift.

 

[barjon]

As blogged:


It’s been a very lack lustre season for ROHAAN, but I think there were signs of life last time in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock where he finished tenth of sixteen some six lengths behind the winner. He didn’t get a clear run where it mattered and would have been a lot closer otherwise. It would not be hard to argue that he’s been set up for this race and if he runs anywhere near his best he would have a very strong chance.

I also like SIGNIFICANTLY who almost did me a really good turn in the Portland at Doncaster a week ago when going down to ANNAF by a short head. He hasn’t been put up any for that super run and if this race hasn’t come too soon he’ll be there or thereabouts.

 

[Marble]

Hoping Paws For Thought will out run the odds.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Not a good result for me or my figures but a very good winner. Clearly right back to his very best and maybe then some. Well done anyone who backed it.

It would have been a very unlucky loser if it hadn't got through.

Albasheer was also a tad unlucky and that penalty for dead-heating with Summerghand at York could have been costly.

 

[Marble]

As blogged:


It’s been a very lack lustre season for ROHAAN, but I think there were signs of life last time in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock where he finished tenth of sixteen some six lengths behind the winner. He didn’t get a clear run where it mattered and would have been a lot closer otherwise. It would not be hard to argue that he’s been set up for this race and if he runs anywhere near his best he would have a very strong chance.

I also like SIGNIFICANTLY who almost did me a really good turn in the Portland at Doncaster a week ago when going down to ANNAF by a short head. He hasn’t been put up any for that super run and if this race hasn’t come too soon he’ll be there or thereabouts.

Well said on Significantly, Barj.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Echoed.

 

[barjon]

Not a good result for me or my figures but a very good winner. Clearly right back to his very best and maybe then some. Well done anyone who backed it

It would have been a very unlucky loser if it hadn't got through.

Albasheer was also a tad unlucky and that penalty for dead-heating with Summerghand at York could have been costly.

I’ve been looking at the race again today and I think the run of Albasheer was amazing. Hollie Doyle reported that he was taken off his feet early on - Following the race, Hollie Doyle reported that ALBASHEER (IRE), placed fourth, was outpaced in the early stages - and he dropped to the rear, then got detached from the pack. A little over a furlong out he was still last, but ran the last furlong quicker than anything to finish fourth less than a length behind the winner. Some finish

 

[Desert Orchid]

I had a win saver on Albasheer and saw how far back it was at halfway so stopped watching it, thinking that even if it did get a run through it was too far back to get involved.

I haven't seen the sectionals but I imagine only it and the winner were not slowing down.

Edit - the sectionals taken from the RTV site: