Ayr Sprints

Steve T

Steve T

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Ayr Gold and Silver Cups over the next 2 days, are we thinking High or Low in the draw?

High for me. Have taken advantage of B365 offering forecast prices by combining the odds and permed those drawn high to various degrees.

Some interesting market support for Protector for the Gold Cup yesterday before the declarations, now in tomorrows Silver Cup his price ranges from 16-33/1 for tomorrows contest.

Plenty of bookies offering 1/4 odds 1st 5, Bet365, Boylesports, Blue Sq & PP.
 
I really dislike the Ayr Gold Cup as a betting race, if sprint handicaps are lotteries then the Ayr Gold Cup is the Euromillions. That said, Hogmaneigh impressed me in the Portland and ran a very very quick time (quicker than African Rose per furlong) and if the high numbers are favoured, he'll be hard to beat. He needs cover though so Golam will have to hope a few go with him that side if he is to win.

People make a massive deal about the draw every year, last year the one horse that came down the middle on his own nearly won!
 
Going with Tajneed and Dabbers Ridge in the GC. (trainer reported ground wasn't soft enough last time for Tajneed)

And going with Kaldoun Kingdom and Northern Dare in the SC.
 
Having looked at the times for the last few days, there is no way on earth the straight course is heavy. It's only Good to Soft I'd say.
 
The jockey on the ML today said it was "really heavy out there".

When I drive to work I pass a large chimney stack and I often check it to see the direction and strength of the wind. Yesterday there was a strong easterly which would mean a tail wind up the Ayr straight. That might explain the times.
 
Cheers for that, it would explain the times but it would be strange for a tailwind to be around for 2 days straight. The RPs reports say the times suggest the ground was a lot better on the straight course. Also, jockeys are about as reliable as French racecourses when calling the ground!
 
My view for what its worth

Turnkey (3.30) is my advice today in the big Ayr feature. This horse collected earlier in the season landing a major touch and then was 4th in a decent event. I have it on good authority he has been saved for this and that Dandy Nicholls has been doing a rain dance for the old lad. Best suited by 6f on soft ground he was purchased out of Mick Channon’s a few years ago and Dandy told Mick that he had given him another Ayr Gold Cup winner. This has very much been the long term aim with this fellow and Adele gets on very well with him. With no weight on his back today on conditions he relishes and over his trip and in a plum draw there is huge expectation that this 28/1 shot can cause a major upset (but not an unexpected one). Words from my close sources suggest Tamagin will make a bold bid from the front, whilst Knot In Wood and Evens And Odds hold solid claims. Add in strong finishers Rising Shadow and River Falcon and with our 6 selections we should have the forecast and tri-cast sussed.
 
I think Turnkey will struggle to get involved unless they go hell for leather looking for position on the favoured rail; he'll be looking to come from near last and that's very difficult in this race; I'm not sure I'd call stall 12 a plum draw for anything but it shouldn't be enough to stop a horse with his running style tbh.

I would expect the winner to have a good pitch from early on and the one who looks laid out for this from a yard who love winning this at least as much as Dandy Nicholls is Karl Burke's Aahayson; he hasn't been overfaced this year and caught the eye at Chester last time out. The big worry with him is that he doesn't want the field all heading for the far rail as he probably appreciates a bit of room to manouevre. If he gets that space, then a draw in stall 6 is nearly ideal.
 
For a horse that looked totally out of love with the game last year for Johnston, Nicholls deserves plenty of praise for swettning him up and grabbing two tasty pots this year. All for £16k too.
 
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