Bet365 Gold Cup Sandown

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
S

SlimChance

Guest
Declarations tomorrow. A tipping line put up Le Beau Bai today at 9/1 which has crashed the price to a general 6/1 and a best priced 7/1. Is this another example of a Saturday favourite trading at a false price late in the week until the day of the race?
 
SlimChance said:
Declarations tomorrow. A tipping line put up Le Beau Bai today at 9/1 which has crashed the price to a general 6/1 and a best priced 7/1. Is this another example of a Saturday favourite trading at a false price late in the week until the day of the race?
Click to expand...

I'd say yes. Lovely horse, but surely it's the heavy-ground theorists who are turning him from a worthy outsider to a false favourite.
 
Euronymous said:
Would have been an ideal race for Synchronised.
Click to expand...

The temptation of Aintree was too much but agreed it would have been a good option.

Rory, Tony Ansell sent out a e-mail (free trial) today to apparently only 50 subscribers advising Le Beau Bai. Unless I'm mistaken that seems to have started the snowball on the price move. These midweek gambles never cease to amaze me. Bookmakers duck for cover so quickly and their PR team claim they will all go off shorter when in reality the opposite is the case.
 
Can't be having Le Beau Bai for this.


There good reason to believe his Welsh Grand National win waan't quite what it looked to be at the time.

The race itself used to be one fo the highlights of the season. Arkle Mill House What A Myth Diamond Edge Topsham bay Special Cargo Shady Deal were calls horses who won this.

Top Weight Tidal Bay at one time would have fitted right in there among them but he the plot some time ago and we never did see the best of him.

However I couldn't help but notice the remarkable change in him when he ran his first 2 races for Paul Nichols.

The 2nd of those was in the Argento with Ruby on board and although he got a bit behind he looked happier than I have seen him in along time. He ran on well beaten only a couple of lengths.

I got the distinct impression between them PN and Ruby have sweetened him up and his gallop round behind Big Bucks will have him spot on for this.

It's hard to believe this horse was never out of the first 2 in his first 16 runs and won the Arkle The John Smith and the Colin Parker in the same year hasn't won a chase since.

A win off top weight here may seem unlikley but I'm confident he can put things to right and take this.
 
Tanlic said:
I got the distinct impression between them PN and Ruby have sweetened him up and his gallop round behind Big Bucks will have him spot on for this.
Click to expand...

Not a view shared by Paul Nicholls who calls the horse "grumpy guts" and describes him as thoroughly moody. He was reported to have burst badly on the gallops before Christmas, while he recently refused when schooling, and seems to have his trainer lost for ideas. If he ever does get back to form (he won't, btw) then it will be his own doing.
 
You have to see through Paul Nicholls and look for the clues...The way I look at he must love the horse to bits..why else would he name him after himself ?:whistle:
 
I'm going over tomorrow for this. Any winners would be greatly appreciated.

In the handicap hurdle I'm interested in Pipe's Arab League. Thought he shaped a fair deal better than his finishing position suggested in the Martin Pipe, having pressed on a long way out. Must be a doubt as to whether he'll go on the ground though.

I'm slightly surprised the Henderson/Buckley horse hasn't been put in shorter. Anybody keeping faith in Act Of Kalanisi?

Looks a fiendish card on the whole.
 
Last edited:
Seriously though, ground is atrocious there today. Anything unproven on it is best swerved imo. In fact, if I had a 3-y-o with its season ahead of it, I would have taken it out today so can't blame Gosden and Hannon for allowing that race to turn into a walkover.

10f on soft/heavy is Poet's optimum conditions and whilst he wouldn't be as good as a fair few of these at their best, the likelihood of them producing theirs and him producing his tips the scales firmly in his favour I think.
 
I'll row in with DJ on Poet in the Gordon Richards.

The mile handicap looks a tricky puzzle. The Godolphin hotpot shouldn't mind the ground being by Pivotal, though you'd have to be against him at the prices. Diverting looked a really progressive type last year and watching the videos of her races I get the impression she might actually relish dig in the ground. The other one that interests me is Sam Sharp; won a Haydock handicap first time up last year (beaten a nose when fresh at Nottingham as well) and slipped back to a nice mark since, though totally unproven on soft.
 
Imperial Monarch won his maiden very comfortably from subsequent winners Azamata and Amiras Prince on yielding to soft up the Curragh last September like a right horse. Beautiful big scopy middle distance type with impeccable breeding. Whilst Stipulate and Hannons yoke have had winning runs this year Stipulate has never raced on ground this soft and Dansili's usually prefer better ground. Hannons I see as the bigger danger to trouble this fella but unlike the other Ballydoyle classic trial horse that went to Epsom this week IM is all class. He took the eye out of my head last year and will be very dissappointed if he doesn't win and win well tomorrow. I would imagine he is very near the top of the pecking order in their middle distance 3 yo colts and the only reservation I would have is the choice of race. I'm not letting that cloud my initial impression and have backed him at 9/4 and will take another crack at him tomorrow.
 
I've had a speculative few quid on Thought Worthy for the Derby so I'm hoping for a decent performance tomorrow.
 
More rain tomorrow might actually help as it looked very tiring today. West End Rocker would have to be on my radar for the big (jumps) race.
 
On The Bridle said:
Imperial Monarch won his maiden very comfortably from subsequent winners Azamata and Amiras Prince on yielding to soft up the Curragh last September like a right horse. Beautiful big scopy middle distance type with impeccable breeding. Whilst Stipulate and Hannons yoke have had winning runs this year Stipulate has never raced on ground this soft and Dansili's usually prefer better ground. Hannons I see as the bigger danger to trouble this fella but unlike the other Ballydoyle classic trial horse that went to Epsom this week IM is all class. He took the eye out of my head last year and will be very dissappointed if he doesn't win and win well tomorrow. I would imagine he is very near the top of the pecking order in their middle distance 3 yo colts and the only reservation I would have is the choice of race. I'm not letting that cloud my initial impression and have backed him at 9/4 and will take another crack at him tomorrow.
Click to expand...

You could be on to something here. While I wouldn't call the breeding impeccable it's certainly interesting and laden with prepotent stamina, being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. Tomorrow's trip, given the going, should play into his hooves.
 
If you're purely looking for horses with ground form then you're going to have West End Rocker and Le Beau Bai on your shortlist. However, I'm even more interested in good track form and you won't find much better than Dovers Hill's win at Sandown on 10th March.

He gave a lump pf weight away and still beat Ballyfoy, who went to run a good fourth in the Midlands National, before winning a chase at Cheltenham. The third horse in the race, Auroras Encore, went on to land a valuable prize money race at Haydock before obviously coming second to Merigo in the Scottish National. So Dovers Hill win at Sandown over 3M1F looks bombproof: The only question mark is over the ground.

Dovers Hill sire Pistolet Bleu has produced plenty of heavy ground performers, including group 2 winner Maille Pistol, and group 3 winners Baldwina and Bonnet Rouge. Dovers Hill is a chaser who I would be prepared to take the chance on that evidence that would go in the ground. At around 16's I make him the bet here. Good luck everyone.
 
Last edited:
Good shout Tanlic. Couldn't have it myself, but when they said Nicholls picked as his charity bet this morning.....
 
Back
Top