Betdaq Handicap Chase Kempton Saturday

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Marb

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I mentioned on the Sky Bet thread, that I wanted to see Long House Hall in the entries for this, but he's not there, so that's that.

However, I desperately want the winner of this race!

I've looked at the handicap; no disrespect to the top weights who are pretty damn good, but I've decided I want something progressing, in good form, at the bottom of the weights.

I've noticed Dr Richard Newland is in excellent form recently, knocking in winners left, right and centre which is a good sign. He trains Catamaran Du Seuil.

He was second at Haydock in December to Captain Redbeard, who's a good horse and rated in the mid 140's, (also holds a Grand National entry). This makes Catamaran Du Seuil look well-handicapped.

He beat Clan Legend, (who's entered in Wetherby's 3:35 Tuesday, so could frank the form).

The third horse... Caraline..is also entered in the same race, so both could frank the form with Catamaran Du Seuil.

Catamaran is presently number 29 on the list for Saturday, so could be touch-and-go whether he makes the cut. I live in hope.

This being the U.K's top racing forum, I'm trying to spout as little-shite as possible these days, although I believe I'm onto something here, so couldn't resist!
 
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Yes, you'll maybe recall, Marble, I put up CDS for the good hcap chase at Mkt Rasen in September but he let me down. He had to drop in class and his two wins subsequently went unbacked. However, I do wonder if he's up to the class of animal it takes to win the big Kempton race.

I plan to look through the race after the 5-day decs come out and once I get a bit of peace at home.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, you'll maybe recall, Marble, I put up CDS for the good hcap chase at Mkt Rasen in September but he let me down. He had to drop in class and his two wins subsequently went unbacked. However, I do wonder if he's up to the class of animal it takes to win the big Kempton race.

I plan to look through the race after the 5-day decs come out and once I get a bit of peace at home.
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I can't remember, but cheers for the heads up.

90 percent of the time I'd agree on the class aspect. This one could (potentially) be the exception to the norm.
 
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I have no idea if there is a plan to run him in this race but I have backed Theatre Territory ew at 20/1.

He was second to Mister Whitaker in the C&D race (novices' hcap) just before Frodon's demolition job of a top hcap chase on tirals day.

I have him only 15lbs behind Frodon on times and both were miles and miles faster than Definitly Red on the day.

This is what Simon Rowlands had to say later:

[FONT=&quot]Interestingly, the Cotswold Chase was about four lengths slower up the run-in than the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase won by Mister Whitaker and over 10 lengths slower than that Handicap Chase won by Frodon.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Whatever distance the big race was run over, it turned into a real slog, and anyone inspired/stupid/misled enough to have backed Definitly Red for the Cheltenham Gold Cup should be hoping for plenty of rain and plenty of pace (and perhaps some helpful rail movements) on the day.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The one-on-one comparison between Mister Whitaker and Frodon is an interesting one. The two horses ran near-identical times, but Frodon was carrying 18 lb more, and his timefigure is likely to be a smart one.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
frodon1.jpg
[/FONT]​
[FONT=&quot]Did one (Mister Whitaker) go too fast or the other (Frodon) too slow? There may have been a bit of both, but those headline figures suggest it was rather more the latter than the former. Frodon’s finishing effort was indeed power-packed, not just against his immediate rivals but against the clock.[/FONT]


As I say, whether TT goes on Saturday or being held back for the festival I have no idea but if he does run there has to be a chance the handicapper has seriously under-rated the form, imvho.
 
Tough as hell this race only 3 from 20 won last time out 8 placed and 9 also rans.....

Loose Chips EW is very big despite being 12 he ran a cracker last time........lotta these won't finish but he'll plod on
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have no idea if there is a plan to run him in this race but I have backed Theatre Territory ew at 20/1.

He was second to Mister Whitaker in the C&D race (novices' hcap) just before Frodon's demolition job of a top hcap chase on tirals day.

I have him only 15lbs behind Frodon on times and both were miles and miles faster than Definitly Red on the day.

This is what Simon Rowlands had to say later:

[FONT=&quot]Interestingly, the Cotswold Chase was about four lengths slower up the run-in than the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase won by Mister Whitaker and over 10 lengths slower than that Handicap Chase won by Frodon.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Whatever distance the big race was run over, it turned into a real slog, and anyone inspired/stupid/misled enough to have backed Definitly Red for the Cheltenham Gold Cup should be hoping for plenty of rain and plenty of pace (and perhaps some helpful rail movements) on the day.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The one-on-one comparison between Mister Whitaker and Frodon is an interesting one. The two horses ran near-identical times, but Frodon was carrying 18 lb more, and his timefigure is likely to be a smart one.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
frodon1.jpg
[/FONT]​
[FONT=&quot]Did one (Mister Whitaker) go too fast or the other (Frodon) too slow? There may have been a bit of both, but those headline figures suggest it was rather more the latter than the former. Frodon’s finishing effort was indeed power-packed, not just against his immediate rivals but against the clock.[/FONT]


As I say, whether TT goes on Saturday or being held back for the festival I have no idea but if he does run there has to be a chance the handicapper has seriously under-rated the form, imvho.
Click to expand...

After another quick look on my lunch break, I'm looking at your fancy, also the Alan King / Terry Warner horse, who looks a bit of a right handed specialist, but has scored in the past carrying a lot more weight. :)
 
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To prove I'm not completely prejudiced against NTD (I'm just very prejudiced against him :lol:) I backed Ballykan on Saturday.

I also backed Pilgrims Bay, who appears to have been taken out.
 
That's bad luck with Pilgrims Bay, Grass.

When are the entries out for The Kim Muir? I wanna see Pilgrims Bay in that. Its the only conceivable race for him at the Festival, imho.

I know Hills went 25/1 some time ago...
 
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Marble said:
That's bad luck with Pilgrims Bay, Grass.

When are the entries out for The Kim Muir? I wanna see Pilgrims Bay in that. Its the only conceivable race for him at the Festival, imho.

I know Hills went 25/1 some time ago...
Click to expand...


Entries close tomorrow, I would imagine we will see the entries on Wednesday
 
Looks like we might be in for some decent ground for a change at Kempton on Saturday. It looks like being dry for a few days leading up to it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have no idea if there is a plan to run him in this race but I have backed Theatre Territory ew at 20/1.

He was second to Mister Whitaker in the C&D race (novices' hcap) just before Frodon's demolition job of a top hcap chase on tirals day.

I have him only 15lbs behind Frodon on times and both were miles and miles faster than Definitly Red on the day.

This is what Simon Rowlands had to say later:

[FONT="]Interestingly, the Cotswold Chase was about four lengths slower up the run-in than the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase won by [URL="https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/horse-form/mister-whitaker/000000435485"]Mister Whitaker[/URL] and over 10 lengths slower than that Handicap Chase won by Frodon.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Whatever distance the big race was run over, it turned into a real slog, and anyone inspired/stupid/misled enough to have backed Definitly Red for the Cheltenham Gold Cup should be hoping for plenty of rain and plenty of pace (and perhaps some helpful rail movements) on the day.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#646464][FONT="]The one-on-one comparison between Mister Whitaker and Frodon is an interesting one. The two horses ran near-identical times, but Frodon was carrying 18 lb more, and his timefigure is likely to be a smart one.[/FONT]
[FONT="][B][IMG]https://www.timeform.com/racing/content/libraryimages/frodon1.jpg[/IMG][/B][/FONT][/COLOR][/CENTER][COLOR=#646464][FONT="]Did one (Mister Whitaker) go too fast or the other (Frodon) too slow? There may have been a bit of both, but those headline figures suggest it was rather more the latter than the former. Frodon’s finishing effort was indeed power-packed, not just against his immediate rivals but against the clock.[/FONT]


As I say, whether TT goes on Saturday or being held back for the festival I have no idea but if he does run there has to be a chance the handicapper has seriously under-rated the form, imvho.​
Click to expand...

The bottom weight and shortening all the time in the betting, DO. This could be a big gamble tomorrow, thus I'm following you in. Good luck.​
 
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Marble said:
I mentioned on the Sky Bet thread, that I wanted to see Long House Hall in the entries for this, but he's not there, so that's that.

However, I desperately want the winner of this race!

I've looked at the handicap; no disrespect to the top weights who are pretty damn good, but I've decided I want something progressing, in good form, at the bottom of the weights.

I've noticed Dr Richard Newland is in excellent form recently, knocking in winners left, right and centre which is a good sign. He trains Catamaran Du Seuil.

He was second at Haydock in December to Captain Redbeard, who's a good horse and rated in the mid 140's, (also holds a Grand National entry). This makes Catamaran Du Seuil look well-handicapped.

He beat Clan Legend, (who's entered in Wetherby's 3:35 Tuesday, so could frank the form).

The third horse... Caraline..is also entered in the same race, so both could frank the form with Catamaran Du Seuil.

Catamaran is presently number 29 on the list for Saturday, so could be touch-and-go whether he makes the cut. I live in hope.

This being the U.K's top racing forum, I'm trying to spout as little-shite as possible these days, although I believe I'm onto something here, so couldn't resist!
Click to expand...
You'll see somewhere in the above I mention Clan Legend. This runs in the 4:30 tomorrow at Newcastle. A 'must include' in any multiples or Yankees tomorrow, IMHO.
 
I see Theatre Territory wears first-time cheekpieces tomorrow.

I should maybe mention in passing that Ballykan looks like he may be top on my figures in what is shaping up as a very competitive race. I think it was GH that gave him a mensh earlier.

By the way, could one of the mods maybe change the title of the thread now? I have no idea why the change in sponsorship seems to have happened so late in the day.
 
You'll have to believe me when I say I was going to post "O'Brien To Be De Master At Kempton" in the headline thread but couldn't be arsed as not many commented on the two previous occasions they pointed to a winner, anyway the point is Geraghty had only ever ridden for Fergal twice previously and both times had been on a nice winner so a stat worth remembering if there's ever a fourth ride.
 
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Colin Phillips said:
Disgusting......never thought I’d see the day, Grass.
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I was hanging my head in shame as I was writing it, Col.

In mitigation, it only happens when Brigadoon appears, and a few on here will have seen the betting slip.

Still, no excuse - won't happen again. :eek:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
You'll have to believe me when I say I was going to post "O'Brien To Be De Master At Kempton" in the headline thread but couldn't be arsed as not many commented on the two previous occasions they pointed to a winner, anyway the point is Geraghty had only ever ridden for Fergal twice previously and both times had been on a nice winner so a stat worth remembering if there's ever a fourth ride.
Click to expand...

They team up in the Bumper.
 
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