These are my figures for LR on last season's runs
Betfair: 166 (via Weird Al's OR164)
K Geo: 179? (via Somersby's OR166)
Denman: 178 (via TGB 165)
Gold Cup: 167 (via TFR)
Looking at his season dispassionately, you could say his comeback run at Haydock was perfectly respectable, especially considering Kauto Star forced him into a string of jumping errors.
You could reasonably expect him to improve on that with a clearer round and a bit more work, and so he did in the King George. He was gifted the Denman with Burton Port being eased into the last but at least maintained his level.
He was clearly below that in the Gold Cup and it may be that he left his race behind at Newbury.
He probably ran to the high 160s on Saturday, possibly a pound or so higher than last year so opinions will be divided as to whether his next run will be his third high 160s in his last six races or his third high 170s, should he come on the same amount as he did last year. Then again, you could argue that his KG last year might be over-rated since Somersby over 3m might not be the most reliable yardstick.
Opinion is obviously what makes the market and I'm not averse to giving horses another chance to prove they haven't lost their ability, often to my cost. And Long Run is young enough.
I reckon if there doesn't look like being much coming through the ranks, I can see me allowing him one more chance but if something comes into the race running to marks consistently in the 170s or on an abvious curve that looks like taking it to the mid-high 170s, I think I'd want to side with that one.
But does Long Run strike me as the type to get back above the 180 mark the way he did two seasons ago? No.
