Betting as Prediction

There was a very good survey from the University of Nottingham a few years ago that proved very much the same thing - that betting markets were far better indicators of election results than polls.

It makes sense really.
 
Mark Holden of the Sportinlife first brought this to my attention. It seems to be a hot topic at the moment with Kevin Pullein using it in yesterdays Racing Post. Mark Holden article focussed on Champions League and Premier League games. With high volumes of liquidity and betting to level stakes he argues that the market is so efficient that in the long run you will not win or lose any more than 5% of turnover.
 
Whether it was a mischievous rogue employee or not, but it emerged late in 2001 that Penatgon staff were being encouraged to bet on various terrorist possibilities, with the view to predicting threat levels and possibilities
 
Have you read the article I posted Warbler - it's c3 pages. It does go into that episode in a bit of detail - I found that particularly interesting
 
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