Betting Strategy for Cheltenham

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Len Madeiros

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Since opening an online account for the first time, I’ve inevitably been drawn in to take full advantage of some of their features. I like the “without the favourite” markets, but I’m particularly enticed by the “place only” feature, particularly as a tool in putting together some daily accas for Cheltenham. The appeal to me is that I’ve had a few accas come in over the years, but never “all winners”. This way I can double my stake, and feel as though I’m not wasting half my stake on a forlorn cause. My insurance is that I will bet on each of the 28 races, so I’m hoping a few swings land one or two punches.

What are the strategies others employ to get the odds on your side?
 
Yes, it's something I sometimes do myself although I often have a very small win bet too 'just in case'.

It's especially of value if you're getting a quarter/fifth the win odds because you're not losing that part of the bet.
 
I have had crazy winning runs for small money betting place only or dutching when the first two on the betting are clear of the rest.

I try to have 3 winning bets on the trot....examplle 10@ 1,28..balance 11.28 @ 1,4 balance @ 1.38 balance 21.80

stop and go back to 10 quid bet.........not too difficult and never be put off by the price if you feel it's too low....it's all about stacking the odds in your favour

Fist race to day Valsheda and party fuzz are 1.4 dutched for example.......as for Cheltenham most races would be taboo to bet in as there's too many with chamces
 
I get involved fairly heavily ante post and I always look for races where I can narrow down the dangers to my selection to one or two and put those in multiples.

When this works it's gangbusters. I have Bob Olinger at 20s and 12s on down in the Ballymore and have the Mullins fav in a live treble with Bachasson (Limestone Lad 11/8) and Concertista for the Mares at 5/2. I also have Bravemansgame in a live double with Cape Gentleman from the Dovecote (4/1). He is also in doubles with both mares in the CH and Melon for the Ryanair (BMG 12/1 in that)

By live I mean a multiple that already has a winning component. I have a number of these this year eg Sottsass from the Arc, APT in the Savills, Tyrell Hatton in a Dubai Golf Tourney, Tampa Bay (NFC), Brewinupastorm from Fontwell, Third Wind in the Rendlesham.
 
Just wait for decs now. There is no value in the markets right now unless you know something very specific about a horse. Price for Tuesday are only going to get bigger from Sunday on.
 
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Slim said:
Just wait for decs now. There is no value in the markets right now unless you know something very specific about a horse. Price for Tuesday are only going to get bigger from Sunday on.
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Yes, plus there will be no shortage of enticing offers come the morning of the races.
 
Slim said:
Just wait for decs now. There is no value in the markets right now unless you know something very specific about a horse. Price for Tuesday are only going to get bigger from Sunday on.
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Bet365 are nrnb and the best odds guaranteed.
 
Take a screenshot of 365 betting on all festival races at the moment and compare it to winning sp’s -I would be fairly confident that the sp’s will pay more over the 4 days.Compare their current prices to best prices available on the morning of the race and it’s no contest.
 
My betting strategy....

Bet Appreciate It
Bet Envoi
Bet Chacun
Bet Monkfish
Bet Sir Gerhard
Bet Zanahiyr
Bet Al Boum
Bet Gordon in handicap hurdles
 
LUKE said:
Take a screenshot of 365 betting on all festival races at the moment and compare it to winning sp’s -I would be fairly confident that the sp’s will pay more over the 4 days.Compare their current prices to best prices available on the morning of the race and it’s no contest.
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The next time you see Henry tell him he's a ******* **** from me. How could he not run Quixilios in the Boodle's off 147.
 
My strategy.

Use that thing inside my skull that's been watching racing for 20 years, learn from past errors, go with my intuition, and use that thing I have called a brain. :)
 
Marb said:
My strategy.

Use that thing inside my skull that's been watching racing for 20 years, learn from past errors, go with my intuition, and use that thing I have called a brain. :)
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That's what I do every year and still keep picking the wrong ones.
 
We've all done it, Outsider.

I'm just pumping myself up, fantasising about what I'll do if I win a five figure amount next week. I'll let you know. :)
 
You need to be a mathematical genius to work out form in handicaps.these big fiends even the best only need hit one jump and chance is gone...like you I go by gut feeling and back sommething ew..one winner can make you a profit if level stakes on all h'caps
 
walsworth said:
I gave up studying form at Cheltenham some years back, now I wait for the day and bet with my gut feeling.
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I'm a fan of 'gut feeling' as far as Cheltenham goes, especially with the handicaps.

No doubt a psychoanalyst would be able rationalise why our 'gut' is drawing us towards certain horses in certain races but the chances are there are sound reasons why our gut is doing so.

But I would still be very uncomfortable punting in a handicap without having gone through it with a fine tooth comb.
 
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The thing I find about Festival races, is that winners generally tend to have the form in the book somewhere.

They may not be the only horse with the form to win a given race, but you can usually make some sort of form-based case after-the-fact. It’s rare to be left completely bewildered as to how a particular horse has managed to win.

That tells me that the answer to the puzzle is lurking somewhere in the form-book, if you look hard enough. In my view, the form-book is critical in sorting the wheat from the chaff. Once a form-based shortlist has been established, it’s probably at this point where gut-instinct takes over, and final decisions taken - “I think this will/won’t stay.......that will/won’t like the ground.....that jockey rides Cheltenham well/badly......that trainer is/isn’t a cheating cu*nt” etc etc.

Like DO, I think you have to put the hard-yards into the form-book, and I’d personally feel insufficiently well-armed, trying to punt the Festival using a wholly-instinctive approach.
 
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Decs for Tuesday very thin, so if you’re looking at EW picks for the other novices (Marsh, RSA & Triumph in particular) probably best to do them now NRNB, as good chance they cut up as well
 
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