BHA Announce WFA Revisions

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
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FLAT racing’s weight for age scale will have its first shake up in more than 25 years when a revised table is introduced next summer by the BHA in conjunction with the European Pattern Committee.

The aim is to ensure a more level playing field when three-year-olds, who have been found to enjoy a disproportionately higher strike rate, meet their elders over distances of ten furlongs and more in the second half of the season.
The changes, which will be the first since 1990, have been made in the interests of fairness and competitiveness and have come about following exhaustive research. They will be implemented across Europe from the second half of June onwards after the BHA presented the EPC with compelling evidence drawn from the last six years.
They will apply across the board, in Group races and other conditions events, as well as in the handicaps which make up so much of our programme. However, the changes are relatively minor - in most cases a reduction by a pound of the allowance received over between ten and 12 furlongs; of 2lb from 13 furlongs to two miles inclusive; and of 3lb over more extreme distances.
Thus in the Coral Eclipse three-year-olds will in future receive 10lb rather than 11lb, and in the King George 11lb rather than 12lb. Over a mile and three-quarters in the Betfred Ebor they will be allowed 10lb instead of 12lb, which will theoretically increase the prospects of a three-year-old making the cut.
More for stayers
However, as the 3lb change over extreme distances is not consistently applied month by month owing to an uneven distribution in the old scale, in the Cesarewitch the allowance has changed by just 2lb and in future will be 10lb instead of 12lb, a difference again that should still have the knock-on effect of increasing the number of three-year-olds running.
Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping for the BHA, said: "When we started the process of reviewing the weight for age data well over a year ago I suspected that the statistics might show a bias towards three-*year-*olds over longer distances in the second half of the season. The data has borne that out.
"The key findings were that three-*year-*olds have a higher strike rate than older horses, which is particularly noticeable from July onwards, and that as distance increases, so does their strike rate and average winning margin. This is because three-*year-*olds are on average improving at a faster rate than the current scale currently dictates.
"The alterations made should help to create a more level playing field for older horses competing against three*-year-*olds across Europe."
 
I wonder if they will at some point increase the allowances in the first half of the season. It is quite rare for a 3yo to beat its elders in a handicap before the July Meeting.

(Or perhaps someone can run that query through RI to see if it's a mistaken impression I have.)
 
"The key findings were that three-*year-*olds have a higher strike rate than older horses, which is particularly noticeable from July onwards, and that as distance increases, so does their strike rate and average winning margin. This is because three-*year-*olds are on average improving at a faster rate than the current scale currently dictates.

its not that 3yo are improving faster than the scale imo..its the fact that 4yo and older horses in general that could give them a race are at stud..so all they are doing is altering the scale to equate a 3yo crop to lose enough times to inferior older horses..in general

lets imagine that all the top 3yo olds raced at 4yo...i'll wager there would be more 4yo winners of the top wfa races than now..the problem isn't the allowance;;its general level of ability of what remains in the 4yo and older crop
 
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But they're acting upon the stats :p:p

(Couldn't find a winking emoticon so it was meant to be a humorous riposte rather than anything sarky :))
 
"The key findings were that three-*year-*olds have a higher strike rate than older horses, which is particularly noticeable from July onwards, and that as distance increases, so does their strike rate and average winning margin. This is because three-*year-*olds are on average improving at a faster rate than the current scale currently dictates.

its not that 3yo are improving faster than the scale imo..its the fact that 4yo and older horses in general that could give them a race are at stud..so all they are doing is altering the scale to equate a 3yo crop to lose enough times to inferior older horses..in general

lets imagine that all the top 3yo olds raced at 4yo...i'll wager there would be more 4yo winners of the top wfa races than now..the problem isn't the allowance;;its general level of ability of what remains in the 4yo and older crop

The article doesn't say, but presumably they looked at all races, not just Group races, so the retirement of 3yo's to stud wouldn't have any real impact on the majority of races.

Your point seems reasonable enough for the top races though.
 
:) at DO..depends how you read stats and how you think laterally a little at what is causing the stat.

I'm not sure Simmo..i can't see them using handicaps..so i would imagine they have used wfa conditions events only.

what they are trying to correct is the "gone to stud" quality drop imo..looks like it to me anyway
 
i'm surprised,,because its fraught with pitfalls

In handicaps the EPC ignored unexposed horses that had run fewer than three times and horses who were stepping up in trip for the first time by two furlongs or more.

that suggests that they think a 3yo won't improve much after 3 runs. The problem with using handicaps is that many trainers have 3yo's who may have 20lb in hand of their mark the day they enter handicaps..and as such will win 5 or 6 handicaps..not because of the wfa scale..but because they are well in for a number of runs..nowt to do with wfa at all...the 3 run thing is a joke..you can have 3 runs in maidens with your true ability well hidden..so they have taken data with 3yo's who are well in and altered the scale because of well inness rather than a false edge due to wfa scale.

a big mistake using handicaps imo
 
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I think this is a big mistake

the statistics they are using are inconclusive


the reason why 3yo beat older horses are others and not the wfa, this is a populist reaction trying to satisfied most people who dont understand nothing about horse racing


3 yo wins that hcps because they are less exposed
also think over longer distance the scale would help the 3yo in slowly run races and because they are even less exposed in those distances.


the real reason also for this is trying to help older horses for some to stay in training, other than that is impossible to understand


in less than 3 minutes there will be someone waiting in a forum telling us Postponed is going to give le cressionarie 12 pounds in the arc......
 
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i'll wager that if you just removed Mr Prescotts 3yo's from their data..it would alter their findings dramatically:)...then throw in all the other trainers who have their 3yo's on a nice mark in handicaps..a nice mark..little to do with wfa causing those results

totally flawed imo
 
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These are the results of every all age race since 2006...in total 2528 races..no jiggery pokery leaving horses out..no horses with 20lb in hand of mark..a level playing field

AGEWINSRUNS
3yo709639911.1%0.98
4yo779705011.0%0.98
5yo438370011.8%1.05
6yo224211710.6%0.94
7yo157140411.2%0.99
8yo+221179412.3%1.09

<tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]%[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]AE[/TD]

</tbody>

can anyone see an advantage to 3yo's?...if anything 5yo's+8yo's do best

no evidence there to give older horses any more of a weight assistance.
 
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these are results of all wfa stakes races since 2006..not maidens ..September/October/November..10f-14f

3yo130111511.7%1.03
4yo116100111.6%1.03
5yo4437811.6%1.03
6yo1514310.5%0.93
7yo6728.3%0.74
8yo+71056.7%0.59

<colgroup><col width="86"><col width="86"><col width="86"><col width="86"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]AGE[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]WINS[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]RUNS[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]%[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]AE[/TD]

</tbody>

3yo 4yo and 5yo all perform near identical..where is this advantage 3yo apparently have?
 
Timeform and Raceform (for not as long) have been using their own wfa scales for some time now. I have hard copies of both but still use the official one when assessing form. I tend to ignore the 2yo wfa scale in the belief that the best juveniles are simply more mature for their age. I now only add on a 'notional' 18lbs - a rough average of the end-of-year allowances of 5f-8f races but just for the sake of seeing what figures they arrive at. For example, an unadjusted juvenile time rating of 110 at royal Ascot or the July meeting would be quite unusual and adding the official allowance - anywhere from 32lbs to 35lbs - would create something pretty ridiculous. (Looking back I can't believe I once this took this at face value!) Using the end-of-season average makes a figure more credible but it would still be top class.

The biggest discrepancies appear to be in the first half of the season and the scales broadly concur from July on. It's almost as if they're shifting the scale on by about 6 months in terms of the differentials being proposed.

Hopefully, though, it will reduce the frequency of annual rants around Ebor time about how unfair it is for 3yos trying to get in the race.

Like suny bay, though, it really annoys the tits off me when people who really should know better, refer to older horses successfully giving weight [for age] to 3yos or suggesting that the weight allowance should tilt matters in favour of the younger horses.
 
i'm all for changing something DO if its blatantly wrong...the fact they used handicaps..and threw in some daft rules tells me they haven't thought much about what they are doing...there is no way anyone can use handicaps where 3yo are concerned and expect to come up with a factual outcome..there are too many 3yo's with lbs in hand running in those races to say that maturity is affecting the results.

Its common sense you use races where horses have only their maturity as the main difference..as in wfa stakes races..to see if they hold an advantage

the above factual figures show that even in the autumn over middle distances..3yo win what would be expected..they have no wfa advantage...so it doesn't need changing.
 
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