Big-field handicaps.

[Colin]

On a quiet day's racing, perhaps a topic that will stimulate some debate.

When you look at these big handicaps, what is your approach.

I rarely dabble in them these days, too much form study with conflicting lines to consider.

But when one is on the "telly" I'm sometimes drawn in.

Earlier in the season there was one with a short-priced (short for a competitive big handicap), I think it was either a Haggas or Varian "Group horse in a handicap", in the punditry beforehand someone, it may been Jason Weaver, pointed out that the horse had only ever run in smallish fields. It seemed a valid point and the horse in question never figured in that race.

Should you be looking for a horse that has shown an ability to show its form in a big field?

Before I am accused of "after-timing" I am not claiming that I backed any of these examples.

Royal Hunt Cup - I go through the field looking for C/D winners (useful to know that the horse has done it before) who had either won or run well in a handicap of 16+ runners. There were only two qualifiers Dark Shift (won 13/2) and Bless Him 7th. On to the Wokingham on Saturday (I did post on that thread), and again just two that qualified Rohaan )won 18/1) and Fresh 9th. The following weekend I tried it with the Northumberland Plate but Island Brave could only manage 8th. and the winners' stablemate Who Dares Wins was out with the washing.

Looking at yesterday's fields the 5f. race at Ascot looked the right sort of race, Mountain Peak was an obvious candidate but I couldn't find an obvious alternative. Mountain Peak (won 11/1) hadn't won a big-field handicap but had finished a close second in the Epsom Dash.

Small sample, I realise, but any thoughts?

 

[reet hard]

Col,
|f it works so well, keep doing it!
It might be worth pointing out that all these were over the straight track at Ascot - a unique test in itself.

 

[barjon]

Logic seems sound, CoL, but hard working form aficionados won’t be pleased

 

[Desert Orchid]

If it works for you consistently over time, Colin, then it's self-evidently a sound approach.

A horse used to winning in smallish field taking on a large one for the first time certainly wouldn't put me off.

Mounty is excellent at identifying hoses for which field size does matter and I might be persuaded by such a stat.

I don't start looking seriously until the 5-day dec stage; it's otherwise just too much work.

I have a 'target' mark for winning a certain level of race, in terms how how far ahead of the handicapper I think it is, so if something comes out and shows a high level of form I'll check its mark once the handicapper has reassessed it and decide if the price makes it attractive at that stage.

Sometimes it's the profile of the horse that appeals to me, especially the 3-5yos. Big improvers often take some stopping. Good examples in the past that I managed to latch on to were the likes of Take A Reef, Negus, Soba, Lochsong, and more recently, Sergeant Cecil.

Another short-cut I use is the RP website facility for ordering a field by RPRs. My ratings vary from them by about 5lbs but overall the differential in tabulated ratings is a lot less, ie if RPRs are high with a certain horse the chances are that I'm going to be high too. A quick look at the ratings tables I put up yesterday for the two big races would exemplify that.

I can then adjust the target rating by those original 5lbs and if RPRs have something in that ball park sitting at a big price I often do a quick check of my own on that horse and decide whether to bet but it's usually fun money at this stage on longshots, especially if I think the price might collapse.

Latching on early, too, to horses that are well in should be profitable. It didn't work for Samburu yesterday but there was something not right from early on yesterday about how the horse was travelling to have me believe it maybe hadn't recovered from Ascot or had some other issue.

The hard work starts at the final dec stage, at which point it becomes manageable, even in a field of thirty. I learned years ago not to bet heavily on anything I hadn't decided for myself was a good bet.

But, as per the phrase so beloved of animal lovers the world over, there's more than one way to skin a cat...