Breeders Cup

jinnyj

jinnyj

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 8, 2004
Messages
4,697
Although I know the vast majority of you have zero interest, I thought there should be a thread.

Battleground current joint favourite for the Guineas ran a cracker to finish second in the Juvenile Turf tonight getting going late due to trouble in running (big horse on tight track NOT necessarily Ryan Moore’s riding DO!) as the winner had already flown. But I thought it was a really good performance. In the fillies, Mother Earth also finished best to outrun her odds and take second.
 
Love Battleground. Had massive interest on his debut as loved his mum. Ran a lovely race even though ran only 5th, he was the one to take from the race. He hasn't let me down since. Ran another lovely race here without being given a hard time. I've no doubt the clueless will be asking questions but hey ho.

Again, Mother Earth ran another good race.
 
This time last year I was involved ante-post in Quadrilateral for the 1000G and I figured the main danger would come from the AOB camp but I didn't like Love, thought she was a bit exposed. So I trawled through the stable's other likely candidates and came up with Peaceful who was 20+ on the machine. I was wide of the mark with Love but Peaceful has proved to be a high class filly. I don't know anything really about the American horses but the fav I've heard might not fully stay and so I've backed Peaceful who does and whose Diane form is surely the best on offer here. I think her last run can be forgiven on really bad ground.

In the Mile I can't have Kameko on a track like Keeneland so I've dutched the two Yanks behind him in the market, Uni and Ivar.

In the Turf Lord North is unproved at the trip but this is the sort of course where he could get it and 9/1 seems too big relative to Magical and Mogul.
 
I will echo!
Battleground was stuffed by the draw as were a lot last night!

What’s everyone’s play tonight? I’m off to research who the front runners at big prices are!


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Sprint Turf - Got Stormy was a top class miler and was just touched off by Uni in the BC Mile last year when not quite seeing it out as well as the mare. Ran a cracker in 2nd in the Fourstar Dave, since being 2/2 switching back to sprint trips. Runs up with the pace and will be a strong stayer. 11/2 5 Places

Dirt Mile - Art Collector had been suffering from a minor injury prior to disappointing in the Preakness. Without that he’d be clear fav here and 8/1 was great value on Thursday. Shorter than that now but still offers value. Put up a top class performance here in July when giving the allowance and a 3 length beating to Swiss Skydiver.

Filly & Mares Turf - A whole host with chances, many from the Chad Brown yard but I’ve taken a chance on the Graham Motion trained Mean Mary at 6/1 4 Places in the hope she gets an easy lead as her stamina is more assured than the favourites. Had an e/w saver on Jessie’s mare at the 12/1 yesterday with 365 but she has the draw to overcome and it’s tough to make up ground here.

Dirt Sprint - 3 year old favourite Yaupon could be extremely hard to peg back now main danger Vekoma is out.

Turf Mile - Some strong European challengers in the low gates but it looks like Uni is peaking at the right time and follows a near identical path as when an ultimately cosy winner of this race last year at Santa Anita. Has a tricky draw but it suits her style of running. The worry is a hard luck story but at c. 6/1 e/w it’s worth the risk.

Distaff - Race of the night for me in what, on paper looks a match between previous winner Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver. Likely fav Monomoy Girl has to prove she still has it at the very top level after those 18 months off and she’s never run against the boys, unlike Swiss Skydiver who not only ran against them but beat them in the Preakness. Did get a dream run that day but she has incredible mid race speed and improved significantly since her run in the Blue Grass here behind Art Collector and was slightly unlucky in the Kentucky Oaks when having to switch off the rail under a less than optimal ride.

Turf - A coin toss between the O’Brien two IMO and while I’d fancy Mogul on his French win I don’t like his draw or style of running for this track so I’ve backed Magical in the hope that she gets a clear run from the low draw and Moore makes use of the fact that she’s pacey enough for 10f but has stamina to boot.

Classic - On a strict reading of the Awesome Again Improbable wins but I can’t believe that was Maximum Security’s true form and it’ll be difficult for Ortiz Jr to repeat Van Dycke’s tactics last time out on Improbable in dropping so far off the pace in this bigger field. Maximum Security could get the run of the race up front. Plenty of dangers such as Tom’s D’etat and Authentic but I’m not a huge fan of Tiz the Law as the Belmont Stakes and Travers were pretty weak races. Maximum Security for me to atone for last year’s Kentucky Derby when he was disqualified from first place.
 
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Good luck, Lee: love to see Magical serve it up 'em.
Reckon this trip will be just the ticket for Terebellum in the F & M.
Couldn't have Kameko around this goldfish bowl.
 
BREEDERS’ CUP: Top International Action From Keeneland

Keeneland Horse Racing Trends

6.57 – Maker’s Mark Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) 1m2f

16/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
16/16 – Had raced in the last 12 weeks
15/16 – Won by either a UK (6) or US (9) based yard
13/16 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower (note, different tracks)
13/16 - Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Had won no more than 6 times
8/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Drawn in stalls 5,6 or 7 (note, different tracks)
4/16 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 8 runnings went to trainer Chad Brown
No horse has won back-to-back runnings
Ouija Board (2004 & 2006) the only horse to win the race twice
Sistercharlie won the race in 2018 and 3rd in 2019
Iridessa (8/1) won the race in 2019 (Joseph O’Brien)

SELECTION: RUSHING FALL

DANGER: SISTERCHARLIE

8.15 – Fan Duel Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m

16/16 – Had won over at least a mile before
16/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
15/16 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Aged 4 or older
11/16 – US-trained winners
11/16 – Had won a Group/Grade1 race before
8/16 – Winning favourites (including 8 of last 11)
8/16 – Drawn between stalls 8-11 (note, different tracks)
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – French-trained winners
1/16 – UK/IRE-trained winners
Trainer Mark Casse has won 2 of the last 5 renewals
Uni (9/2) won the race in 2019 (Chad Brown)

SELECTION: UNI
DANGER: RAGING BULL

9.33 - Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f

15/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/16 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
12/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won a Group/Grade 1 before
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16 – European-trained winners
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher (note, different tracks)
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/16 – US-trained winners
3/16 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 9 runnings went to trainer Aidan O’Brien
Bricks An Mortar (11/8 fav) won the race in 2019 (Chad C Brown)

SELECTION: MAGICAL
DANGER: CHANNEL MAKER

10:13 – Longines Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 1m2f

16/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/16 – Had won over at least 9f before
16/16 – Raced in the last 9 weeks
15/16 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
15/16 – USA-trained winners
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won at least 5 times before
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Had raced at Belmont Park last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 6 winners were trained by Bob Baffert
In the 36 runnings to date of the Breeders’ Cup Classic - 4 year-old horses have the best record – winning 15, while 3 year-olds have taken 12 and 5 year-olds have won 9.

SELECTION: IMPROBABLE
DANGER: MAXIMUM SECURITY
 
Guys, is the advertised race times on the racing post the time they will be going off in the U.K, i.e is Swiss Skydiver running at 8.54 our time? etc.
 
Glass Slippers wins the Turf Sprint. Take a bow Kevin Ryan and Tom Eaves. Superb!
 
Audarya wins the Filly & Mare Turf nailing the favourite Rushing Fall. Didn’t back her but so please as the ATR guys are utter kn*bs. Pretty much dismissing European runners and yay we have two on the board now. Debut runner for Fanshawe so fantastic for the team.
 
Aye

Racing Post quote "Nothing special over further and poor run latest; looks out of place in this field."

Famous last words haha
 
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That was a cracking finish. AOB never won the Mile before and takes 1,2,3 winning with the rank outsider Order of Australia.
 
I'm pleased to report forum resident Maureen a.k.a Moehat backed it.
 
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Set the horse up for a stallion career anyway. How game is Circus Maximus though.
 
Cracking race that and good ride on the winner. Another game run from the 2nd who just had to check his run slightly.
Interesting had the 3rd had a clear run, would surely have gone very close aswell.
 
I backed the second and third ew but sadly not the winner. I hope Lope stays in training.
 
I don’t know flat racing so I’m not going to criticise the jockey.

But for the life of me I don’t understand why ‘Uni’ was placed at the back and worked into traffic midway, to pull back and then revert to going out wide and finish like a train. Unfortunately 20 lengths off turning in.

Also, AOB must be doping his animals. (Tongue in cheek comment)
 
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