Butlers Cabin Using Some Trends And Some Logic

S

Shrews

At the Start
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Mar 31, 2008
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2nd post, all with good intentions, don't crucify me if it loses :laughing:



The problem with the National is that a/ nowadays the trends are well known and b/ there are loads of them. There seems to be so many that if you went religously by them all you would end up with a shortlist of zero

Therefore, I am inventing a new trend Remove the horses showing a negative on the three strongest trends (from Betfair) and then just going through the rest of the elimination based on the usual logic

1) In the last 50 years only Red Rum has carried over 11-5 to victory so out goes -:

Hedgehunter
Hi Cloy
Knowhere
Mr Pointment
Turko
Madison Du Berlais
Simon
Opera Mundi
Iron Man

2) Have to go back over 4 decades to find a National winner that had not won over at least 3 miles so out goes -:

Bailey Breeze
Bob Hall
Contraband
King Johns Castle
Milan Deux Mille
Nadover
No Full
Tumbling Dice

3) All winners since 1988 had previously had a run in the last 2 months so out goes -:

Cornish Sett

This leaves 26 from the 44 above


11 412183 Fundamentalist 23 N A Twiston-Davies 38 10 11-4 P J Brennan
12 11-373 Butler´s Cabin 49 Jonjo O´Neill 56 8 11-3 A P McCoy
13 3-62S5 Slim Pickings 34 T J Taaffe 13 9 11-3 B J Geraghty
14 3F6514 Chelsea Harbour 34 Thomas Mullins 50 8 11-2 D N Russell
15 -01105 Vodka Bleu 49 D E Pipe 17 9 11-2 Paul Moloney
16 -63003 L´Ami 25 F Doumen — 9 11-1 Mick Fitzgerald
17 -F1133 Snowy Morning 42 W P Mullins 68 8 11-1 D J Casey
18 29F-2P Bewleys Berry 49 J Howard Johnson 60 10 11-0 Denis O´Regan
20 612-80 Mckelvey 21 P Bowen 40 9 11-0 T J O´Brien
21 -20037 Joaaci 98 D E Pipe 17 8 10-13 J W Farrelly
22 080403 Point Barrow 19 P Hughes 25 10 10-13 Tony Dobbin
23 0P-229 Cornish Rebel 22 Mrs L Williamson 50 11 10-12 Derek Laverty
24 2-P014 D´Argent 49 A King 54 11 10-12 Robert Thornton
28 U-5111 Cloudy Lane 35 D McCain Jnr 65 8 10-11 Jason Maguire
30 34-P36 Mon Mome 25 Miss Venetia Williams 60 8 10-11 A Coleman
31 26-2P8 Cornish Sett 100 P F Nicholls 85 9 10-10 Mr N Scholfield
32 104329 Naunton Brook 21 N A Twiston-Davies 38 9 10-10 David England
34 4/0-14 Backbeat 62 J Howard Johnson 60 11 10-9 Wilson Renwick
35 P/0P21 Comply Or Die 42 D E Pipe 17 9 10-9 Timmy Murphy
36 28U575 Idle Talk 23 D McCain Jnr 65 9 10-9 Brian Harding
37 4398F2 Kelami 42 F Doumen — 10 10-9 Barry Keniry
40 564420 Black Apalachi 34 D T Hughes 65 9 10-8 Andrew J McNamara
41 /84-2B 59Philson Run 49 Nick Williams 60 12 10-8 Daryl Jacob
42 1P-062 58Dun Doire 19 A J Martin 58 9 10-7 Richard McGrath
43 166P0P 57Ardaghey 23 N A Twiston-Davies 38 9 10-7 David England
44 81P-U0 56Joes Edge 23 Ferdy Murphy 33 11 10-7 Keith Mercer

It stands to logic that a horse must be able to jump fences well and have the stamina to get 4m4f. Also, as it's a large field a horse should really have shown form in large fields. Some horses like the experience of running in a big herd others are more apprehensive and don't enjoy the experience. Running this extreme distance and landing on ground it does not like must be negative factors. I would guess that one of the best trends must be 'firm ground' horses win 'firm ground' Nationals and 'Heavy Ground horses win Heavy Ground Nationals'. However, it looks like it'll either be Good or Good to Soft so this would be less of a factor this time unless it changes drastically 60 hours or so.

Either eliminate horses completely for failing in one area or for accumulating three or more negatives

Eliminate horses who have either Fell or Unseated rider more than once in its last 10 chase runs. Also deduct one point for a horse who has fallen/UR in 1/10. Any horse completely the Grand National course only to be eliminated if suffering 3 falls/UR

Fundamentalist 0/10
Butlers Cabin 0/10
Slim Pickings 1/10 * but no negative point due to ability to finish the course
Chelsea Harbour 1/10
Vodka Bleu 0/10
L'ami 0/10
Snowy Morning 1/10
Bewleys Berry 1/10
McKelvey 2/10 * but not eliminated due to ability to finish the course
Joacci 1/10
Point Barrow 1/10
Cornish Rebel 0/10
D'Argent 1/10
Cloudy Lane 1/10
Mon Mome 1/10
Cornish Sett 1/10
Naunton Brook 0/10
Backbeat 1/10
Comply or Die 1/10
Idle Talk 5/10 * Eliminated
Kelami 1/10
Black Apalachi 0/10
Philson Run 1/10 * but no negative point due to ability to finish the course
Dun Doire 1/10
Ardaghey 0/10
Joes Edge 1/10 * but no negative point due to ability to finish the course

Eliminate horses who have three times failed to be placed when racing over 26f or more. Also deduct one point for failing once. Any horse completing the Grand National course only to be eliminated if suffering 3 non-places or an accumulation

Fundamentalist 0, -1
Butlers Cabin 0, -1
Slim Pickings 0, 0
Chelsea Harbour -1, -1 * Eliminated to accumulation of negatives
Vodka Bleu 0, -1
L'ami 0, -3 * Eliminated
Snowy Morning -1, -1
Bewleys Berry -1, -3 * Eliminated to accumulation of negatives
McKelvey -1, -2 * Eliminated to accumulation of negatives
Joacci -1, -5 * Eliminated
Point Barrow -1, -6 * Eliminated
Cornish Rebel 0, -7 * Eliminated
D'Argent -1, -6 * Eliminated
Cloudy Lane -1, -2 * Eliminated due to accumulation of negatives
Mon Mome -1, -2 * Eliminated due to accumulation of negatives
Cornish Sett -1, -3 * Eliminated
Naunton Brook 0, -9 * Eliminated
Backbeat -1, 0
Comply or Die -1, -4 * Eliminated
Kelami -1, -5 * Eliminated
Black Apalachi 0, -2
Philson Run 0, -6 * Eliminated
Dun Doire -1, -3 * Eliminated
Ardaghey 0, -5 * Eliminated
Joes Edge 0, -6 * Eliminated


Eliminate any horse not winning more than 3 times on Good or Good to Soft going. -1 for only winning 2 times

Fundamentalist -1 (5 out of 6 wins)
Butlers Cabin -1 (4 out of 5 wins)
Slim Pickings 0 (1 out of 4 wins) * Eliminated
Vodka Bleu -1 (5 out of 11 wins)
Snowy Morning -2 (1 out of 7 wins) * Eliminated
Backbeat -1 (3 out of 4 wins)
Black Apalachi -2 (1 out of 5 wins) * Eliminated

This leaves just four runners

Fundamentalist
Butlers Cabin
Vodka Bleu
Backbeat

Eliminate any horse not placing twice in races of 16 or more runners. 1 negative point for one non place

Fundamentalist -1 ( 1 unplaced from 4 runs)
Butlers Cabin -1 ( 0 unplaced from 3 runs)
Vodka Bleu -1 ( 6 unplaced from 6 runs) * Eliminated
Backbeat -1 ( 1 unplaced from 1 run)

Leaving three

Fundamentalist -2
Butlers Cabin -1
Backbeat -2

Eliminate any horse not achieving a 50% place rate when attempting races in value of 30k or more

Fundamentalist (13 runs, 10 unplaced) * Eliminated
Butlers Cabin (7 runs, 3 unplaced)
Backbeat (3 runs, 3 unplaced) * Eliminated


The predicted winner therefore is Butlers Cabin. Stays, jumps well, has enough class, does well in big fields, goes on the ground, meets the strongest trends

With any one of Backbeat, Fundamentalist and Vodka Bleu for the minor places
 
Welcome to the forum shrews. And thanks for the hard work!

I was with you a long way there - but suddenly imo it went pear-shaped!
<< Eliminate horses who have three times failed to be placed when racing over 26f or more. >>

I would use this stat in the positive rather than the negative sense - ie I would only INCLUDE horses which HAVE been placed at 3m and over. That might give a different list... Then again, it's dangerous to rule out horses which have fallen in a previous GN, tho they might be down the bottom of the shortlist ...

I did fancy Butler's Cabin - strongly - at the start of the year, but he's been very out of form this season. And jockey bookings are all important in this race - it's NOT just about the horse; so you need to factor that in too

Not one of your shortlist of four is even on my shortlist of ten let alone my shorter list of five :rolleyes:
Though I agree Vodka Bleu has a chance of placing. I'd be surprised if either of the other two did
 
Have reached the already fully committed stage in betting on the National but still appreciate well thought out postings that come up with a differing view. Good Stuff and welcome.
 
Seconded; pity the big field form filter wasn't further up the list, as it's a factor that tends to be downplayed.
 
Good stuff, the only thing I would say is that slim pickins is a better horse on better ground and has improved since joining Taffe's.He only just arrived in Taffe's before tha national last year.
 
Welcome to the forum Shrews. An interesting second post (much more interesting than my second post as I recall).

As you may well be aware, the nature of forums is that people generally have their own opinions and any deviation from that opinion is clearly bollocks until proven otherwise. :D I suppose that I am no different, however, it should be noted that what follows should be taken as constructive criticism and not an onslaught of abuse!

One of the factors that I like to build into any trend analysis is what I call the Venn factor. ie how many previous winners would I remove by applying these trends/logic.

Applying the first three of your "logical" trends to the last 10 races would remove no less than 8 winners.

That said, they are indeed "logical", so there must be some measure of use in them. 7 of the last 10 winners would have failed on your going logic and 4 from the placed in 26f+ races logic. Which indicates that those are the factors to look most closely at.

In looking at such measures, I personally prefer to apply them as a positive. So instead of looking for repeated good form on the going, I would instead look to see if a horse has demonstrated that the probability is that it will put in a good run on that going. This might not necessarily mean a win on that going. It is perfectly feasible that a horse could have won races in a lesser class on that going but that when raised in class, they have been unable to produce their best. Equally, a horse may never have won on the going but may have produced it's very best form in defeat on that going.

The same logic can be applied to the distance requirement. Handicap mark and conditions are factors that could have influenced the result leaving a horse with 3+ poor runs over 26f+ but which have no bearing on the race in question. Again, I would apply positive thinking to this factor. Has the horse demonstrated the ability to perform somewhere near it's best over 26f+ on at least 1 occasion? (Pref more, but I wouldn't be too dogmatic about it). It's handicap mark and ability to perform under the conditions are being taken care of elsewhere.

Which brings me to..... Handicapping. How well handicapped is the horse? Looking at the last 10 winners, each of them had recorded an RPR at least 8lbs in excess of their OR at some point in their career (8 of them within the past season). I haven't done a full study on that factor as yet for this years race. You'll probably find that 50% of the field have at least 8lb in hand on those figures, and it probably wouldn't be wise to totally discount those with something less than 8lb in hand.

Again, I do hope that I have not come across as a complete cnut and that the criticism is taken in the spirit in which it was intended. :D Your post has given me further food for thought with regard to my own trending, which I will apply, hopefully successfully. Good luck with your wagers!
 
An excellent counter, simmo, and I hope shrews doesn't take it the wrong way. Obviously a lot of work has gone into the original post.

Only one important trend for me: the Grand National is only ever won by a well-handicapped horse.
 
Well my own reply certainly wasn't intended as abuse! I agree with use of filters for this race - have had my own for years - and I went along with shrews' for a long way; I just remarked that I'd use a few here in a slightly different way. As Simmo notes, applying filters as a postive is something he's personally found more accurate and I'd second that.

An age filter for the GN is paramount for me, it's very accurate

I'd agree that the ground filter is not always going to work - stamina indications are far more important, imo anyway [they are also almost inseparable from that nebulous quality 'courage']

Fallers are another problem: I wouldn't automatically discard any horse which has fallen esp in this race, unless it was early on. Falling can sometimes teach a horse, and it's not always going to mean it will carry on falling; it's a thing I look at on an individual basis: is the horse a clumsy jumper in general? If a horse has completed at least one circuit of this course - in any race - I wouldn't discard it

The GN is very much a stats race and efforts like this can only be helpful, as can attempts to refine and improve our filtering, imo - so I too have had a long look at my own filtering in the light of shrews' post, and it's always good to have another system to look at

:)
 
No problems with any counter criticism. Racing has always been about opinions and I never expected everyone to agree.

As said in the post there are so many trends nowadays that if you used them all you would have a short list of zero

As Simmo stated :-

Applying the first three of your "logical" trends to the last 10 races would remove no less than 8 winners.

Which is fair enough. But I would assume that if we used trends other than the three posted we would come up with a similar outcome. In fact we could use trends to find an argument for or against any argument.

Thats why I think it's important that picking the trends you are comfortable with (in the National at least) should be used to reduce the shortlist to a manageable number (in this case 26).

For example, I would agree with Bar The Bull about not taking too much notice of age filters. A few years back the age filter was eliminate any age other than 8,9 and 10 year olds. But of course we've had Amberleigh House and Red Marauder to put that one to bed and now 11 year olds seem to be allowed into the trend. However, I do think there is a good logic argument here as 7 year olds are unlikely to have enough jumping experience and 12 years olds are past their best. Therefore it does warrant a second look as a 'logic based argument' as a second look may show that there may be some 7 year olds who have done more steeplechasing than some 9 year olds. In this years race the 7 year old No Full has had 16 runs over fences and Backbeat an 11 year old has only had 10. Likewise Philson Run as a 12 year old appears to be maintaining it's form and picked up the third biggest pay day of its career when finishing 4th in last years race.

I think in drawing up an opinion of who is the most likely winner, it's important to put in some trend filters and then just look for the one who's a decent jumper, got good stamina, goes well in large fields, will appreciate the ground and has a little bit of class.

Butlers Cabin is my choice, but i've noticed he's got Tony McCoy riding and he's 0 from about 50 norty
 
Righty dokey. I've had a look at the trends and have come up with the following in no particular order.

Days since last run - between 20-50. A crucial trend for all chases over 3m5f+. I have the trends for 6 races over 3m5f+ in front of me and just 2 of the 58 races was won by something which had run 50+ days ago and another 2 at less than 20. For the National itself it currently sits at 10/10.

Big field form - the last 10 winners had all shown placed form at least in races with 17 or more runners.

Falls - 8 of the last 10 winners had fallen at least once in it's career (2 of them in the race itself). However, none had fallen more than twice. There would seem to be a degree of logic to making that the threshold. 3+ falls and yer out.

Winning form at 3m+. Contrary to what seems to popular opinion, Red Marauder had never won or been placed at 3m+ prior to the race. However, 9/10 is still a reasonable tally so I'll be including this one.

Experience. 10 career chase runs or more. Bit of a dubious trend this one, however, for the present I'm happy enough to rule out those with less than 10 chase starts on the basis of lack of experience.

Handicapping - rule out those with less than 8lbs in hand when comparing their best RPR ever with the OR they are running from.

Now, I am considerably more lazy than Shrews, so rather than indicating what gets ruled out where. I shall simply give you the list of contenders left using these trends.

Hedgehunter
Knowhere
Simon
Bewley's Berry
D'Argent
Cloudy Lane
Mon Mome
Naunton Brook
Comply Or Die
Kelami

Which brings us nicely on to the more spurious trends. Those which are trends because history says they are but which logic tells us perhaps don't have a place in this analysis. But I'm gonna use them anyway... :laughing:

Weight. We'll probably find that Hedgehunter, Knowhere and Simon are carrying too much weight.

A bit of a strange one here - number of runs in the season. The last 10 (and several before) have all had at least 4 runs that season. I'm guessing that this ties in with fitness, in that perhaps a National winner needs several runs to produce the levels of fitness/red bloodcells or something required to beat 39 other horses over 4m4f.

Which also takes out Bewleys Berry and Mon Mome.

Leaving

D'Argent
Cloudy Lane
Naunton Brook
Comply Or Die
Kelami

Now, I don't know about anyone else here, but I'm not having either Naunton Brook or Kelami winning this race. They've had their chances and didn't run particularly well before.

Leaving

D'Argent
Cloudly Lane
Comply Or Die

A tiny touch of dutching with these three for me......

Feel free to rip into it now. :D
 
I'm not being patriotic, but I think the most relevant point here is who has been well handicapped/laid out for the race as DO suggested,

Since 1999 there have been a fair few Irish winners [someone knows the stat] mainly because of the trainer's ability to lay them out in whatever way. This means their relevance to trends is limited, in some respects. I can't imagine Silver Birch ticked too many boxes.

Somehow the methods used above have resulted in two shortlists with no Irish contenders despite a dozen Irish trained horses being in the field.

I think our trainers are a bit shrewder than that - certainly the stat used by shrews in relation to horses winning over good/good to soft ground MORE than 3 times is pretty much irrelevant when most of the Irish horses spend all winter [apart from this one, in fact] racing on heavyish ground.

Handicapping - rule out those with less than 8lbs in hand when comparing their best RPR ever with the OR they are running from.
Click to expand...

This is where I think you've eliminated a fair few of the Irish trained runners simmo, and it's where one or two are going to slip through the net. Slim Pickings, for example, should be a similar proposition to his third in last year's National but with a bit more experience and stronger ala Hedgehunter from his first to second National. Chelsea Harbour has barely been trying this year bar that race at Punchestown. Black Apalachi's trainer is pretty good at disguising ability.

Just my two cents
 
Fair point Bobbyjo. Did notice some results of that nature at Cheltenham with Irish horses. I have my suspicions that the handicapper is using RPR's to assist in rating the Irish horses at the moment.

However, I think I'm right in saying that 5 of the last 10 winners were Irish trained - and they all had at least 8lbs in hand on their best form (25lbs in Papillons case). The trend that I have noticed with the Irish horses is that there seems to be at least one race where the trainer finds out if his opinion of the horse is correct before it gets hidden away again in a pile of meaningless results. Slim Pickings would probably be the pick of those you've mentioned.
 
Why would you exclude 12 year olds when Amberleigh House won? In fact six of the last 37 winners were 12.

Jumps race horses are maturing far earlier these days. Until very recently, many horses who would end up in the National were slow maturing types who weren't broken in until they were five. Now we are looking at a breed with 5yos capable of winning the Champion Chase.

Does anybody really feel that Madison du Berlais will fail for lack of experience?
 
A light-hearted filter which gives an Irish winner Bobbyjo :rolleyes: :P


The last time a horse won with odds longer than 33/1 was in 1995 (Royal Athlete, 40/1). Eliminating all those with longer odds than 33/1, and we’re left with twenty-three horses in contention.

» The winner must have won a three-mile plus race – that counts out King John’s Castle, Royal County Star and Patsy Hall. Twenty left.

» Experts insist that the winner should be carrying between 10 and 11 stone. That eliminates Slim Pickings, Simon, Butlers Cabin, Snowy Morning, Mr Pointment, Chelsea Harbour, Hedgehunter, Lami, Vodka Bleu, Knowhere and Turko. Nine remain.

» Only six favourites have won since 1960 – that eliminates Cloudy Lane. Eight left.

» Comply or Die took to wearing blinkers in December. Bad move, only one blinkered horse has won since 1975. Seven left.

» Only three eight-year-olds have won the National since 1980 (Bindaree, 2002; Party Politics, 1992; Corbiere, 1983). At eight, Mon Mome is too young. Six left.

At the other end of the spectrum, not many horse over 12 have won in eighty-four years – hard luck Philson Run. Five left.

» Six of the last nine winners have been from Ireland. That counts out McKelvey, Bewleys Berry and Joes Edge. Two left.

» In five of the last ten years the winning jockey has been wearing green: devastating news for all-purple Point Barrow.

And the winner is…

» Dun Doire - 33/1, wears green, 9-years-old, has won over three miles, will be carrying between 10 and 11 stone, and is from Ireland. The only horse with all the winning ingredients. :P
 
You may laugh - I backed Dun Doire last year, or was it the year before LOL - strongly fancied him

I'm not discounting Philson Run on account of his light campaign - he ran 4th last year with only 1 prep run and NW reckons 2 this year has him spot on. And he's on bottom weight! The important stat here is the number of chases esp at 3m+ that a horse has had *in total* - you want a horse with not too many miles on the clock

My shortlist for a win is:

Slim Pickings
Cloudy Lane
Philson Run
d'Argent [don't like the blinkers]
??Comply Or Die [as above, also don't like Eider winners]
Simon [ground/weight a worry]

And for a place also
Bewley's Berry
McKelvey
Naunton Brook

and probably the other two Irish horses mentioned above,
Black Apalachi and
Chelsea Harbour, for reasons outlined by Bobbyjo
- but I've not looked into those two properly yet

Esp since Betfair came on the scene, imo this a race to make money on place betting
 
I still might fancy the horse if he had Sam Waley-Cohen up :what:
He proved yet again today what a great jock he is over these fences - he's completed every time too
 
Originally posted by harry@Apr 3 2008, 11:22 PM
Fantastic theory but the horse is trained by Jonjo cry
Click to expand...
Of all the major trainers in the country, Jonjo O'Neill has by far and away the best record in handicaps at Aintree. Since 2003, he has trained as many winners as Paul Nicholls, Martin Pipe, Nicky Henderson, Nicky Richards, Philip Hobbs, Alan King, Henry Daly, Ferdy Murphy and Howard Johnson combined. Those nine have also sent out seven times as many runners as O'Neill. But let's not allow facts to colour our judgement, shall we?
 
The first three are Slim Pickens, Snowy Morning and D'Argent.

I just can't work out what the feckin order is going to be.
 
My trends analysis point to D'Argent (I look for positive trends i.e, why a horse is suited to a race, not why it might lose)

Align this selection also with the rules (I think from trendsetters a few years ago) that your GN pick should:

- not have run at Cheltenham
- have won a Class 1 race
- have won a race over 3 miles or further,

and I think I have a live chance with D'A.

GLTA - MR2
 
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