Calling Excel Experts

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Phil Waters

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We've been here before, you bunch of eggheads, but here we are again. Football this time.

If I have data that tells me the historical chances of certain markets in football (for instance the chances of a team winning 2-1 when 1-0 down with 20 minutes to play having started the match as 1/3 favs and playing at home) - how do I create a program in Excel that will run for 2 periods of 45 minutes and change the odds as each second ticks by?

Does that make sense? It does to me, but if anyone feels like showing off, please help.
 
It definitely can be done. Someone was helping me before from the Betfair forum but I forget who the person was and it was around 2 years ago.

I had a working example that simply included a running clock which would change odds as each minute ticked by, depending on the initial information I inputted.
 
I don't know how to do it, but there is no reason for it not to be technically possible.

I do believe the logic is flawed to accept that the in running price is a variable purely of pre kick-off odds, scoreline and time remaining.

As an extreme example, with 3 seconds to go, if a team has posession they are infinitely more likely to score than if they don't.
 
I agree to an extent on the last point, but odds are compiled using that very logic, surely?
 
I am pretty confident that it could be done - off the top of my head...

You would need to enter kick-off time and the odds prior to the match and a comparison between the =Now() Time and the entered time would have to be incorporated in the function that returned the current odds.

I am not sure about the auto-refreshing of the clock/odds but at the very least you would be able to return the current data at stroke of a key (and therefore I supposed as a part of macro?)

A big job...
 
Originally posted by Phil Waters@Aug 28 2006, 03:14 PM
If I have data that tells me the historical chances of certain markets in football (for instance the chances of a team winning 2-1 when 1-0 down with 20 minutes to play having started the match as 1/3 favs and playing at home)
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This bit is the crucial part. By my calculations (using 20/1 as a max price and increments of 0.1) there are 18900 outcomes for each current scoreline. There are also (assuming seven goals as the maximum any team will score) 5040 potential scorelines.

That is 95,256,000 possible probabilities. Which is rather a lot.

Cutting the max price to 10/1 and the max goals to 5 reduces the tally to 1,188,000. Which is a bit more manageable.

If you had that data available (or even better, knew how to calculate it without it being in a datatable) then it would be a fairly simple extrapolation along the lines of Betsmate's idea.
 
What that ignores is that you can get two teams that started at 1/3 playing different matches that come in 0-0 at half time, one of which you would still take 1/3 and the other you would happily lay at odds against.
 
Mel, yes it does ignore that, but historically prices of teams pre-kick off are pretty accurate in the long run.
 
I agree with Cracker.

I read a Pullein article which went something along the lines of:

Let's say a team is 1/3 to win in 90 mins at the outset. If that team are 0-0 at half time, their price should move to (say) 4/7. If it is significantly shorter or longer than the "fair" price (which is off the top of my head) given the SP, they should be backed or laid accordingly. No matter what the pattern of play in the first half.
 
I would agree with that generally in relation to Premier League matches. When it comes to European club or International matches I am not so sure, as there is a greater possibility of the SP being misjudged in the first place.

Chelsea v Watford - 0-0 half time - It wouldn't bother me too much how many times Watford hit the crossbar, though I wouldn't say I was unaffected.

Chelsea v FK Crvena Zvezda - 0-0 half time - You might be a little worried if Chelsea are finding it unexpectantly difficult coping with their 7ft striker, their style of play, etc.

Maybe your Pullein article referred to an instinct for the Market to overreact to such things rather than not reacting at all. From a purely intuitive point of view it appears to me that "no reaction" can't be right.

Then again I will take on all comers as being the worst football punter of all time and have a betfair balance to prove it.
 
His point was that there is a "fair" amount that the price should move, and the market's initial assessment of the strength of the two teams is better than the betting public's opinion on the prowess of the 7ft Serbian striker.

And just as often, there is stubborn obstinacey that so called "second half teams" will get their shit together in the second period.
 
Originally posted by BrianH@Aug 31 2006, 06:52 PM
Save all the effort - go to work for one of the spread betting firms
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Jesus, next Ardross will be advising us to freedom of speech...
 
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