Changingoftheguard

C

Cantoris

At the Start
Joined
Jan 7, 2008
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While everyone was watching Royal Ascot today, I ket my eye on Down Royal and a very impressive win for Aidan O'Brien's Changing of the Guard. Waited with, he had plenty to do with two furlongs to go but came through very easily. He clearly appreciated the step up in trip and the fast ground and assuming the handicapper gives him seven pounds I can see him going in again at the Irish Derby or Oaks meeting.

Another I quite liked was Dermot Weld's Spirit Watch in the maiden who didn't look too busy and is now handicapped. Expect to see it stepped up in trip now. Galway maybe?
 
Possibly Gal - thought that Robby Bobby of Johnstons ran a blinder too, never been a big fan of the horse since his defeat at the hands of Kandidate up at Southwell but certainly looked like there might be a decent handicap in him at some point.
 
LUKE said:
Got a wonderful ride from Colm.
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I thought he was being clever and not trying to win it too far. Or at least that's what I thought from the top of the straight when he was absoutely cruising. Let the field split when they round the dog leg and through he came. I think he won with oodles in hand although the Oxx filly didn't help the form in the maiden.
 
Cantoris said:
I thought he was being clever and not trying to win it too far. Or at least that's what I thought from the top of the straight when he was absoutely cruising. Let the field split when they round the dog leg and through he came. I think he won with oodles in hand although the Oxx filly didn't help the form in the maiden.
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I wouldn't worry too much about the Oxx filly letting the form down. Changingoftheguard was value for much, much more than 7 lengths against her at Navan as Murtagh had the race won half a furlong out.

Changingoftheguard did it well yesterday and looked like he'll go further although I'm not sure it was the strongest race. O'Donoghue claimed he couldn't go the pace early. The Johnston horse looked like winning a furlong out and ended up 7th. It should have a race in it too.

A strange betting race too. The winner was very uneasy on course and I backed it at 4s not long before the off before the price collapsed into 5-2.
 
Narcotic Nora said:
A strange betting race too. The winner was very uneasy on course and I backed it at 4s not long before the off before the price collapsed into 5-2.
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Maybe its a false impression I am getting, but more and more the money comes late for these fancied Ballydoyle horses. They can drift out to a fairly decent price and then get thumped in late just before the off. Again just something I noticed myself and might not be fully representative of how they are punted.
 
Galileo said:
Maybe its a false impression I am getting, but more and more the money comes late for these fancied Ballydoyle horses. They can drift out to a fairly decent price and then get thumped in late just before the off. Again just something I noticed myself and might not be fully representative of how they are punted.
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I think this might be the case at the smaller tracks where the market is weak. Alot of it must be driven by off course bookies/exchanges etc.? The night Man of Iron won at Navan he was freely available at 7-2 (iirc) minutes before the off and the betting ring was practically empty. I was amazed when he was returned at 9-4.

Now, there was a bigger crowd there yesterday but most of the money seemed to for the Oxx animal (they were joint favs on lots of boards) before a late plunge on the winner.
 
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The sample size for forming the market wouldn't be huge either. So when a horse is 11/4 but 3/1 is freely available he will still be 11/4 based on the sample of bookies they use. So when the market moves it can be only a few bookies moving it.

Also must comment on a good down royal for joanna morgan, two wins and a second to add to her 20% record at the track. It's also becoming pretty clear that David Myerscough knows the time of day and his gamble on Ghost Mist on Saturday nearly paid off (thankfully I backed it for a place). I think they landed a touch with Bangalore Gold at the start of the month too.
 
Changingoftheguard entered in the Curragh Cup on Saturday. He'd have it all to do against the hardened older horses but I'd love to see him run in it.

Don't mention Ghost Milk. I backed him (win only) and thought he was home and hosed only to get nabbed on the line.
 
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