Chasers & Hurdlers 2015/2016

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
Messages
16,012
Top Ratings. Others can be provided on request:

Chasers
Don Cossack - 183
Cue Card - 181
Vautour - 180
Douvan 180p
Sprinter Sacre - 179
Djakadam - 175
Un De Sceaux - 174
Coneygree - 171p
Don Poli - 170
Silviniaco Conti - 169

Hurdlers
Faugheen - 176 (lower than I expected)
Thistlecrack - 174p
Annie Power 170+
Altior - 167p
Un De Sceaux - 166+
Arctic Fire - 165
My Tent Or Yours - 164
Nicholls Canyon - 164
Yorkhill - 163p
Prince of Scars - 163
 
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Does the author compile these ratings, Grasshopper? In what way are they different to Official ratings? I've never bought the book but might this year. Perhaps you could explain why this is an essential read for me (honest question).

FWIW, Wolf Of Windlesham for upcoming Stuart Edmunds is my handicap hurdler to follow for the season. I'm just saying as I'll be doing the forum a favour and having a sabbatical over the winter. I'm hoping we see Wolf in the Greatwood, but I'm sure connections know more than me about targets (and rightly so).
 
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Tycoon Prince h133
Identity Thief h157
Gwencily Barbas h147
Sutton Place b101, h137p
Bellshill b126, h146
 
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Marble said:
Does the author compile these ratings, Grasshopper? In what way are they different to Official ratings? I've never bought the book but might this year. Perhaps you could explain why this is an essential read for me (honest question).

FWIW, Wolf Of Windlesham for upcoming Stuart Edmunds is my handicap hurdler to follow for the season. I'm just saying as I'll be doing the forum a favour and having a sabbatical over the winter. I'm hoping we see Wolf in the Greatwood, but I'm sure connections know more than me about targets (and rightly so).
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Chasers & Hurdlers is always a joint-effort amongst Timeform staff (presumably the Jumps crew), and there are seventeen people name-checked in the production of this year's Annual.

Official Ratings are compiled by the BHA Handicapping team, and are subject to change race-on-race. The Chasers & Hurdlers rating is a one-off Rating, and if there is a more direct comparison to be made, then it is probably the Jumps Classification Ratings that are jointly-produced by the BHA and the Irish equivalent-body each Autumn, as these are also static in nature.

In terms of its usefulness, I can only speak from personal experience. In my case, it shone a light on aspects of form-study that I had never considered before. It was like moving from monochrome to colour, or analogue to HD. It is also a decent reference tool for day-to-day form-study (though doesn't replace a database).
 
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I find it interesting how cautious they've been with Faugheen, as a novice 166, then 171, now 176. The days after the Irish CH they put him to 177+ but downgraded it to 176+. I can't remember who but there is a timeform`er that has in his bio that he won't ever put a hurdler higher than Night Nurse. I think its no coincidence.

For anyone interested, UDS after his first race last season was also given a provisional rating of 180, he's now 174. I think the same will happen to Douvan. Come against older horses, fail and downgrade. Then we have Vautour who was 171 last season, now 180. They gave him the 180 for the KG 2nd but they made the case many many times that Don would've won it and most likely by 2-3 lengths, what would they had done then? raise Don to 185 or downgrade Vautour CC to 175? Its absurd to give Vautour 180 for what he did last season and again he'll be a horse who I expect to see downgraded this term as more evidence comes in with each race. We'll see..
 
Desert Orchid said:
Can you elaborate on that for us, GH?

(I'm always open to helpful approaches.)
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I thought the question might come up, DO - just not from you! :cool:

It's hard to quantify it, to be honest, or maybe I've just forgotten (I've been getting the Annual for 20 years).

I recall devouring the essays, and being able to place achievement in both a contemporary and a historical context. It gave me a much better understanding of what was required to win at a given level, and a deeper appreciation of all the myriad factors that should be considered when weighing-up a race. My previous approach was basically exposed as amateurish, and whilst I'm still skint, I now do my stones with much greater misplaced-confidence and futile-zest, than I used to. :)
 
Aughex said:
I find it interesting how cautious they've been with Faugheen, as a novice 166, then 171, now 176. The days after the Irish CH they put him to 177+ but downgraded it to 176+. I can't remember who but there is a timeform`er that has in his bio that he won't ever put a hurdler higher than Night Nurse. I think its no coincidence.

For anyone interested, UDS after his first race last season was also given a provisional rating of 180, he's now 174. I think the same will happen to Douvan. Come against older horses, fail and downgrade. Then we have Vautour who was 171 last season, now 180. They gave him the 180 for the KG 2nd but they made the case many many times that Don would've won it and most likely by 2-3 lengths, what would they had done then? raise Don to 185 or downgrade Vautour CC to 175? Its absurd to give Vautour 180 for what he did last season and again he'll be a horse who I expect to see downgraded this term as more evidence comes in with each race. We'll see..
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I too am surprised Faugheen's Leopardstown effort merited 'only' 176. I thought it was going to nudge 180.

Vautour's mark is thoroughly legit, on the line through Cue Card, who hoovered-up all the G1 staying chases throughout the season, with the exception of the Gold Cup - where he was travelling easy in contention when he fell.
 
Grasshopper said:
I recall devouring the essays, and being able to place achievement in both a contemporary and a historical context. It gave me a much better understanding of what was required to win at a given level, and a deeper appreciation of all the myriad factors that should be considered when weighing-up a race. My previous approach was basically exposed as amateurish, and whilst I'm still skint, I now do my stones with much greater misplaced-confidence and futile-zest, than I used to. :)
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Absolute classic. Grassy ; one of the best book recommendations I have read in a lifetime.
I do hope you can come to Leopardstown again in January when top level seats will be at your disposal again.
Anyone who has not come, please form an orderly queue now as this gent and fellow 'Talking Horsers' will definitely bring a smile to your face !
 
it'd be best if we compare Al Ferof and how he fared in the KG(where Vautour got his rating from.. same track/distance) in the last several years, than to put Vautour to CC level because CC was travelling in contention in the GC(?!) 3 out. Al Ferof was always about 10 lengths in behind the KG winners, what has changed last renewal? Was he a better horse to still come 13 lengths behind CC? Was CC such a better horse to only beat Al Ferof by the same distance that Silvinico Conti also beat by 9 and 14 lengths in `13, `14 ? I think not. Vautour rating is too high for what he did last season. Douvan's as well.

I said it before and its slowly revealing itself that Timeform has a commercial approach to ratings, they hype some that they think will fare well in the next big races and drop some that they don't think will perform so well. I'm talking of the top rated ones. I won't be surprised that come the festival if UDS is allowed to take part in the CC he'll give a proper beating to Douvan and we'll have the above figures reversed for the 2017/18 ratings. SS a year older, who knows but I'm referring strictly between UDS and Douvan. If UDS owners have some sense they'd stick to 2 miles, at least for the first part of season see where he's at, instead of dodging the hype that is only hype until he races in open company.
 
edgt said:
Absolute classic. Grassy ; one of the best book recommendations I have read in a lifetime.
I do hope you can come to Leopardstown again in January when top level seats will be at your disposal again.
Anyone who has not come, please form an orderly queue now as this gent and fellow 'Talking Horsers' will definitely bring a smile to your face !
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Didn't care for him, me.
 
Aughex said:
it'd be best if we compare Al Ferof and how he fared in the KG(where Vautour got his rating from.. same track/distance) in the last several years, than to put Vautour to CC level because CC was travelling in contention in the GC(?!) 3 out. Al Ferof was always about 10 lengths in behind the KG winners, what has changed last renewal? Was he a better horse to still come 13 lengths behind CC? Was CC such a better horse to only beat Al Ferof by the same distance that Silvinico Conti also beat by 9 and 14 lengths in `13, `14 ? I think not. Vautour rating is too high for what he did last season. Douvan's as well.

I said it before and its slowly revealing itself that Timeform has a commercial approach to ratings, they hype some that they think will fare well in the next big races and drop some that they don't think will perform so well. I'm talking of the top rated ones. I won't be surprised that come the festival if UDS is allowed to take part in the CC he'll give a proper beating to Douvan and we'll have the above figures reversed for the 2017/18 ratings. SS a year older, who knows but I'm referring strictly between UDS and Douvan. If UDS owners have some sense they'd stick to 2 miles, at least for the first part of season see where he's at, instead of dodging the hype that is only hype until he races in open company.
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It should be self-evident that I am not using the Gold Cup, as the benchmark for Vautour's rating. I merely mentioned the Gold Cup in the context of CC and him putting-up proper, solid performances in every race last season (including the GC before he fell).

Why would it "be best" to measure Vautour against Al Ferof, and hark back to races in 2013 and 2014, to try and get a handle on Vautour's mark for this season? That makes no sense to me whatsoever, when there is a much simpler and straightforward measure to be had from Cue Card? Still, if that's the way you want to go, AF's C&H ratings (all gained in the King George) for the last three years are: C162, C165 and C168. This tells me that the King George is just about the perfect race for Al Ferof, and it's where his seasons-best effort routinely comes. On that basis, the mark given to Vautour in this year's Annual doesn't look wildly out - though it could possibly be argued down a lb or two.....which is the case with every other rating on the planet too.

It might help if you actually suggested what marks you think Vautour and Douvan should be on, and then we can maybe see what it is your getting at.

I don't buy the "commercial" argument. People buy Timeform because they trust that a given rating is an accurate measure of merit. It would be commercial suicide to hype/downgrade horses unnecessarily, given they only survive commercially, due to the perceived accuracy of their ratings.

Any race between UDS and Douvan would be one to savour, but you are failing to show the younger horse enough respect, if you think UDS would give him "a proper beating".
 
edgt said:
Absolute classic. Grassy ; one of the best book recommendations I have read in a lifetime.
I do hope you can come to Leopardstown again in January when top level seats will be at your disposal again.
Anyone who has not come, please form an orderly queue now as this gent and fellow 'Talking Horsers' will definitely bring a smile to your face !
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You're too kind, Eddie...unlike the renegade An Capall.

ICH meeting very-much on the agenda again for January. Looking forward to seeing all the usual mob there (plus any others coming along), and we will - of course - be happy to relive you of any billets going in the fancy seats. :)
 
Novice Hurdlers
Altior h167p
Yorkhill h163p
Yanworth h158p
Min h153+
Beveur D'Air h152p
Don't Touch It h152
Petit Mouchoir h151
Charbel h150
Unowhatimeanharry h147p



Novice Chasers
Douvan c180p
Un Temps Pour Tout c161
Ar Mad c157+
No More Heroes c157+
The Game Changer c157
Vaniteaux c157
Kylemore Lough c156p
Arzal c156
Rule The World c156
Avant Tout c155p
Black Hercules c154p
Killultagh Vic c154p



Bumpers
Ballyandy b123
Blow By Blow b123
Moon Racer b122+
Bacardys b121
Battleford b120
Jenkins b119p
High Bridge b118
Prince d'Aubrelle b118
The Minch b118
 
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In terms of rating difference between highest and 2nd highest, how does the 19 Douvan has compare to what Sprinter Sacre had?

I have a feeling that Ar Mad will put in a monster performance somewhere this season too. One I definitely like
 
2011/2012 Novice Chasers
Sprinter Sacre c175p
Sanctuaire c169 (me hole)
Sir Des Champs c164p
Flemenstar c163
Cue Card c160
Edgardo Sol c160 (me hole)
Hunt Ball c160
Bobs Worth c159p
 
Grasshopper said:
It should be self-evident that I am not using the Gold Cup, as the benchmark for Vautour's rating. I merely mentioned the Gold Cup in the context of CC and him putting-up proper, solid performances in every race last season (including the GC before he fell).
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In jumps racing, horses can appear to go very well 3 out but by the last they could end up last as they consumed all the energy too early. There's no conclusion to be drawn from CC fall in the GC.

Grasshopper said:
AF's C&H ratings (all gained in the King George) for the last three years are: C162, C165 and C168. This tells me that the King George is just about the perfect race for Al Ferof, and it's where his seasons-best effort routinely comes. On that basis, the mark given to Vautour in this year's Annual doesn't look wildly out - though it could possibly be argued down a lb or two.....which is the case with every other rating on the planet too.
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Well I'm glad to see Al Ferof improving with age.

Grasshopper said:
It might help if you actually suggested what marks you think Vautour and Douvan should be on, and then we can maybe see what it is your getting at.
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I think Vautour was a solid 175 over 3 miles last season. I can see him improve to 180 this season but I can't see any reason to afford him that mark on what he did up to now.
Douvan I think was a solid 170 over 2 miles, he put his best performance at Aintree when beating an 150 horse by 14 lengths with something to spare. He has yet to reach UDS who I think its a solid 177-8 at his best over 2 miles.

Grasshopper said:
I don't buy the "commercial" argument. People buy Timeform because they trust that a given rating is an accurate measure of merit. It would be commercial suicide to hype/downgrade horses unnecessarily, given they only survive commercially, due to the perceived accuracy of their ratings.
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As I mentioned they only do it with the top horses, thats why I'm still a subscriber because I accept thats part of their marketing efforts to promote a new superstar so that fans of that horse feel good when buying their publication.

Grasshopper said:
Any race between UDS and Douvan would be one to savour, but you are failing to show the younger horse enough respect, if you think UDS would give him "a proper beating".
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I show him plenty respect, I think everyone else isn't showing UDS enough respect. He's not a world beater but still with a different ride he would've won last season's CC. As I mentioned above, my feeling is that Douvan has to improve to get to UDS, not the other way around.
 
Fair enough.

If you drag Vautour down to a lower-rating, then you have to drag Cue Card down too, given his mark also derives from the King George.

What then for Don Cossack? Do you leave him on 183, believing the Gold Cup run to be his high-water-mark for the season? If so, you basically have to have Djakadam at or around Cue Card's rating, which is very hard to justify based on their Aintree run.

The point is, it's an inexact science, and all ratings can be argued one way or the other. There are no right answers; only deeply-held beliefs......and it's my deeply-held belief that you are talking bollocks, when it comes to the brilliant and under-estimated Vautour. :cool:

UDS has always commanded plenty of respect on these pages. That position has not changed, but he does now look somewhat exposed over fences, and further improvement seems unlikely. The notion that he would have won the QMCC under a different ride, is without foundation, in my view.

We can more-or-less satisfy ourselves that we know UDS's level (top-class), but Douvan still remains full of further promise, and it's only natural that people would focus more on him, in terms of next season's 2M calendar. Do I agree with a Timeform rating of 180 for Douvan? Possibly not, but the hardest horses to rate are the ones who do it both brilliantly and effortlessly, and he probably isn't far off it in real terms.

Are Timeform guilty of hyping him? Hype is defined as "extravagant or intensive publicity or promotion", or "promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its benefits".

Douvan's essay starts with about 4 pages reprising the careers of Arkle, Flyingbolt, Dunkirk and Mill House, and there is an inference that, in Douvan, we may have found a horse who can put himself in amongst those legendary animals. Maybe that tells it's own story?
 
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