Cheltenham 2023

Outsider

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Time for an update as it's getting close.
We start with the supreme and I'm hoping FACILE VEGA returns to form but if if impaire et passe runs I will be backing that.
In the arkle all the talk is about the favourites but I still think SAINT ROI 25/1 taken could spring a surprise.
The Ultima
I took 40/1 Fortescue but I'm not sure he can lay up with them but should stay on late.
I've had a good look at the race and I've had a look at the trends.
Paul Nicholls is 0/25 in this race and hasnt had one placed since 2009.
The hcap band is 137 to 145.
So I'm backing THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 14/1 trained by PN and rated 150.i also like Monbeg genius. 14/1 as a back up. But Threeunderthrufive is my nap of the first day.
I've looked through the Boodles and the form has totally confused me.
Bo zenith was my pick but it's being saved for aintree.
I've backed THETYS at 25/1 but I dont think it will get in.
I think it would be wise to wait for the day as a lot of bookies will be going 6/7 places.
PUNTA DEL ESTE 14/1 D.Skelton is the one I like.
Was a good third to Bo Zenith.
LUDUS is a G.Elliot outsider to consider.
but it really is a minefield.

I'm hoping CONSTITUTIONAL HILL wins easily.

I've done Mister Coffey in the NH chase but it seems like the favourite is home and hosed from the views I've read.

On wednesday
I've done GREANETEEN in the queen mother at 33/1 and could surprise
The coral cup is super competitive but if MIGHT I runs in this then it will be my pick.
But I read today that the M.Pipe is the aim.
Another that is in both is IROKO and he is on the shortlist

Grand annual.
3 on my shortlist.
Grey diamond,Rouge Vif and
FRERO BANBOU 33/1 taken.
I watched a replay of last years race and it wasnt on the screen for 5 fences it was well off the pace.made steady headway and finished 3rd btn 6L and it blundered the last.
Had 6 runs before last years race and only 4 this time and is 6lb better off.and is 11lb better off with the 2 that beat him.
Thursday.
My nap of the week runs in the pertemps.
MAXXUM 7/1 winners of qualifiers have a bad record in the final so they say.when this horse won it was rated 120 and so it needed to win well to make sure it got in and Jack Kennedy made sure it did win easily by 16L and got put up 18 lb and with the bha tax of 7lb means it will have to carry a lot of weight of 145.
Touted as a possible for the stayers so must be well thought of.

At the moment I dont have a fancy for the Plate which is unusual for me.
In the Kim Muir I've done RAPPER 25/1 but will have another look closer to the race.

At this moment of time the one I like in the county is
PETITE TONNIERE 25/1 I think this 2m will suit as it has been travelling well over two miles 5f.

Threeunderthrufive
Punts del este
Frero banbou
Might I
Petite tonniere
Maxxum (nap)

More updates later.
Good luck.
 
I've added another to my Ultima race FANTASTICA 20/1

Ran a cracker last year and wknd into 6th/7th.

Hes 18lb better with corach rambler,13lb with oscar elite and 14lb with tea clipper.
 
I cant believe Threeunderthrufive has drifted out to 18/1 with skybet going 8 places.
I've gone in again.
This is definitely going to be a big loser for me if it doesnt at least get a place.

My only concern is PN said it was 5lb too high so iisnt he going to try and get it dropped for a tilt at the Scottish national. I hope not.

It could be a long depressing week for me if this fails.
 
What with the drift,the soft going and not trying(just my opinion the way it ran)I was happy to see Threeunderthrufive finish 8th.
My biggest bet of the year saved by skybet paying 8 places.

Relieved.
 
I dont usually back an eleven year old but in the plate on thursday I like CELEBRE D'ALLEN (took 50/1) 33/1 skynet 8 places.

Lightly raced for a 11 yr old and finished 5th last year when only 4/1 and now lower in the hcap.
I didnt think it would get in.
My other 2 for the race are WAR LORD 20/1 and FRERO BANBOU 12/1 but I'm not convinced 2m 5f is suitable but it didnt get in the grand annual.
 
The coral cup tomorrow and is wide open.

Langer dan who was 2nd in the m.pipe 2 yrs ago and was brought down last year so must be respected along with the cesarewitch winnerRun for oscar.
HMS seahorse is still improving and camprond ran 4th last year on bad ground which didnt suit..all these are between 8s and 10s.

So I'm going to do a couple of outsiders.
OFF YOUR ROCCO 66/1 was useful in 2021 and ran 4th of 6 btn 11L behind Blazing kai giving 7lb away.
Raced twice in December and hasnt run since.has won over 2m5f .
The other is NELLS SON 50/1.i put this up last time at kelso and it was travelling well when it fell.
Icare allen .I backed this for the betfair and he completely bombed out and now steps up in trip.
So,to sum it up I havent got a clue.
 
County hurdle friday.earl one.
GLORY AND FORTUNE 33/1 8 PLACES SKY 50s 6p
Ran 5th in last years champion hurdle.has dropped to 144
 
Outsider;bt1455 said:
The coral cup tomorrow and is wide open.

Langer dan who was 2nd in the m.pipe 2 yrs ago and was brought down last year so must be respected along with the cesarewitch winnerRun for oscar.
HMS seahorse is still improving and camprond ran 4th last year on bad ground which didnt suit..all these are between 8s and 10s.

So I'm going to do a couple of outsiders.
OFF YOUR ROCCO 66/1 was useful in 2021 and ran 4th of 6 btn 11L behind Blazing kai giving 7lb away.
Raced twice in December and hasnt run since.has won over 2m5f .
The other is NELLS SON 50/1.i put this up last time at kelso and it was travelling well when it fell.
Icare allen .I backed this for the betfair and he completely bombed out and now steps up in trip.
So,to sum it up I havent got a clue.

Cant complain with that .I did back Langer Dan.and got a good run from my rank outsider who was still there until weakening at the last.finished 10th.
And Nells son was 8th.
 
Well,2 days to go and 5 hcaps to get stuck into and try and sort a winner out or a good priced place horse
210 pertemps hurdle.
My NAP of the week runs in this MAXXUM winners of qualifiers dont win the final they say,but the way this one and thanksforthehelp won their qualifiers they both look to have decent chances.Green book 25/1 is an ew pick.ran well in the alfred bartlett last year and won his qualifier as well.

410 plate
23/25 winners had won between 2m3f and 2m5f which is a negative for my fancy.
FRERO BANBOU parts of me says he cant win but parts of me says he can.
I backed it ew 33/1 for the grand annual but it didnt make the cut.
CELEBRE D'ALLEN is a lightly raced 11 yr old who has been running well and was 5th last year when it was 4/1 favourite.
WAR LORD 20/1 is my 3rd pick.
I've also had a pound ew on BORN BY THE SEA 100/1
I backed this last year.it was always ridden by a claimer but wasnt here so it was basically 7lb worse off,well this year the kid is back on and it's a yr older (9).

530 kim Muir
My two main bets in this are RAPPER 25/1 and MUSICAL SLAVE 25/1
I put Rapper up when it won and it ran on late into 5th last time.the extra distance should suit.c/d winner.
Horses over 9 havent got a good record in this although champard was 10 last year.
Musical slave got up to win a veterans race last time but it's the form of finishing 2nd to HEWICK in the bet365 last april off 5lb lower which makes me like its chance.
Now then,I like Venitia Williams's runners and she has 4 in it and I will be backing all 4 to small stakes.
James King was booked early to ride Farinet and hes not a forlorn hope.
Fontaine collonge won first time out beating both Rapper and musical slave 11L and is 3lb worse off didnt try imo in the grand national trial.
Didero vallis finished 3rd last year off 8lb higher with James king riding.
The winner champard has been took out and so Lucy Turner has switched to DV.
Coo star sivola won the ultima 5 yrs ago off 142 on heavy going under Lizzy Kelly.
Its last run in 2021 was off 134 and then had 18 months off and switched to VW.
Beaten in 2 veteran chases at 9/2 and 8/1 and last ran at Ludlow where it led toll 3 out.
Looks to have little chance but off 118 you never know with VW.
1st and 3rd 66/1 and 50/1 last year.

Back later with fridays
 
I've done Born by the sea again on the exchange 310 win 34 4places.

In the county hurdle on friday I've done a few.another minefield of a race.
I did PETITE TONNERRE 25/1 earlier.
Added GLORY AND FORTUNE
and I've done PIED PIPER got a bit of class and out of all Elliots entries he relies on PP and GLAN £1ew 40/1
Mullins and Skelton have farmed this race over the years and they have 5 between them and all have chances.
Faivour 50/1 with Bridget on is tempting.
Pinkerton has a chance on its 2nd to Merlin giant,my original pick.

M.Pipe the getting out race.
I've backed MIGHT I as I have since it got beat giving weight to Constitutional hill
Harry Fry cocked up by it finishing 2nd and getting a 3lb rise.
I've also took 33/1 NO ORDINARY JOE Hendersons and ridden by one of my favourite jockeys Luca Morgan.
Elliot likes and tries to win this race and he seemed to like IMAGINE
and I like the chance of Willie's HAXO 20/1

THURSDAY
FRERO BANBOU
MAXXUM
RAPPER

FRIDAY
PETITE TONNIERE
MIGHT I are my main fancies.
 
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