1.30 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016
Sky Bet Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: 2 miles half a furlong on the old course.
The traditional curtain raiser to the Festival run over the same distance as the Champion Hurdle and open to Novices four years old and upwards. Runners are required to jump eight flights and the race is noted for it's fast pace.
Trends:
Backing horses in this race just because they are the highest rated coming into the event has not been a good strategy. Many of these have been backed into favouritism and failed at short prices. In a race such as this where most are very unexposed it may not be the horse that has produced the best form so far that produces the best performance on the day. The Irish have won 14 of the last 24 renewals of this race and, in recent seasons, it has been their main hope according to the market which has prevailed. Winners of top class Novice races invariably need a prep run and the trends for the Supreme support that theory. Only one winner in the past couple of decades was absent for more than 68 days and only four absent for more than 45 days. Last time out winners have featured prominently in the winners enclosure of the vast majority of recent renewals and over half of those have won their two previous races. This is a race where it doesn't pay to be held up and being able to travel, race prominently and stay are normally assets that give a horse it's best chance. Flat bred horses used to be the order of the day for this race but that has been turned on it's head in recent years, partly due to the desire of producing good to soft ground on the opening day of the Festival. Six year olds have won 11 of the last 22 renewals of this race and five year olds have won seven.The races which have been the best pointers to the winners of this race are the previous season's Champion Bumper, The Delottie Hurdle at Leopardstown, The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse, and The EBF Novices hurdle at this track. A race that seems to throw up horses that do not fare well in the Supreme Is the SkyBet Novices race here in November.
Trends Summary:
Ex Bumper horses have been responsible for 20 of the last 24 win and place positions.
Every winner in the past decade had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.
17 of the last 19 winners had won their pr evious race, 13 of them the last two.
This is the most successful race for the Irish at the Festival, winning 13 of the last 24.
9 of the last 11 winners had run at least three times over hurdles.
4 of the last 13 winners finished in the first five of the previous season's Champion Bumper.
Nicky Henderson's horses tend to run well
Of those with entries, Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have trained more than one previous winner of the race.
Short priced favourites (3/1 or less) have a very poor record in the race.(4 from 19)
Horses given noticeable hold up rides have only won 3 of last 19 renewals.
Only 1 of the last 21 winners had been absent for more than 68 days, 17 winners had run in the previous 45 days.
Only 1 ex flat horse has filled the win or place positions in the past eight seasons.
Analysis:
As with many of the races at this Festival, the first stop will be anything that represents Wille Mullins. His 'hotpot' here is the long time favourite Min. His form has been taken to a new level since joining new connections and he has been undeniably impressive in dispatching his opposition in two starts in Ireland. There is some substance to his form with Ball D'Arc, who was beaten eleven lengths into third when Min beat him last time out, winning a Listed and Grade Two since. Coupled with the yard winning this for the last three years and it's not surprising that he has been all the rage for this. He is a slick jumper with pace to burn but whether that entitles him to be a relatively short price is open to debate. He can be keen and his longer than ideal absence could see him a bit too 'fizzy'. He is currently shorter in the market than either Vautour or Douvan were when successful in this race in the past two years and, on that basis alone, he looks worth taking on. We have taken an ante-post stance on Tombstone and the reasoning for that will be repeated at the end of this analysis. Nicky Henderson has two very live contenders in Altior and Buveur D'Air but his win record in this race isn't compelling; he was last successful in this race back in 1992. Altior can be keen but he was impressive when winning at Kempton off a fast pace and his fractions in the final stages bore comparison with Faugheen later on the card. A direct comparison with that horse is unwise but it did support the theory that he has a serious turn of foot when he engages top gear. He was under pressure on the home turn but, not for the first time, he responded well for his jockey's urgings and put 13 lengths between himself and his rivals at the line. If he hits a flat spot in this race he may find some of these gone beyond recall but he is on a steep upward curve and the form of the Kempton race has worked out well. Buveur D'Air is more of a staying type, he is a half brother to smart stayer Punchestowns, but he doesn't lack pace. He could be well suited by a fast run two miles and is another who isn't ground dependent. His debut victory at Newbury has been franked by plenty of those that finished behind but his second victory at long odds on didn't tell us much. His Trainer can't split him and Altior, and there may not be much between them, but Altior is the more experienced and his form may have a bit more substance. Supersundae looks to possess a serious engine. He got within five lengths of a Willie Mullins inmate (who isn't at this Festival) on his hurdling debut despite jumping poorly and, after taking a long look at the first on his second start, improved in the jumping department as the race progressed; eventually running out a convincing winner. He gives the impression that he has plenty to learn but, if it all comes together in this race, then he is capable of outrunning his price. He has a useful turn of foot, is versatile regarding ground conditions and clearly goes well for Jonathon Burke. He represents a Trainer who should never be underestimated when it comes to the 'big time'. He has been pleasing in home schooling but he has to translate that to the track. Of the others, Charbel and Silver Concorde appeal most. Charbel made all to win the Scottish Supreme trial but, while that is useful form, he needs a major chunk of improvement to trouble the principals in this race. Silver Concorde possesses plenty of speed, having won the 2014 Champion Bumper, but he hasn't transferred that ability to hurdles in three starts to date. Two of them have been on unsuitable heavy ground but a near 16 length defeat to Nichols Canyon on yielding ground in the other doesn't look form good enough to win this race. He was an improver on the flat last year but the jury is still out on whether he can be as useful when obstacles are put in his way.
The opening race of the Cheltenham Festival sees the first of the Willie Mullins 'big guns' heading the market; Min is a current best priced 7/4 and as low as 5/4 with a few layers. He was beaten in his two starts in his native France but his obvious talent has been unleashed by his current handler and he has won both starts in Ireland with consummate ease. It's difficult to gauge just what he achieved but the second of those victories came in a Grade Two and the well beaten third, Ball D'Arc, followed up in a Listed Novice race at Punchestown and a Grade Two at Naas. Min is a slick jumper, and his best work at home is said to be done on better ground, so if there are drying conditions they are unlikely to inconvenience him. The yard have won the last three renewals of this race with Vautour (2014) and Douvan (2015) achieving it without coming under much pressure. Min is a keen going sort but he looks to have a serious engine and taking time to settle didn't harm Douvan's chances when he took this race last season. Educating a horse and teaching them how to 'race/battle' used to be an advantage in these Championship races but horses from this yard are re-writing the rules. Given the events of the past two seasons it wouldn't be a surprise to see Min stride up the hill in splendid isolation but it's arguable whether his form so far is worthy of such a short price. His odds mean there are some very good horses in opposition at tempting prices and the one that appeals most at this stage is Tombstone.
He holds entries for both the Supreme Novices and the Neptune Novices (21 furlongs) but, having raced over 16-18 furlongs in his four starts over hurdles to date, it's the Supreme which looks to be the way that connections are leaning. Tombstone's owners have A Toi Phil (Willie Mullins) also entered in the same two races and he has run over 20 furlongs in two of his three races over hurdles so he seems to be the logical choice for the longer event. Tombstone goes to Cheltenham having won his second start over hurdles but being beaten into second in his last two outings. That is not the typical profile of a possible winner of the Grade One opener but it doesn't tell the whole story. His defeat on his penultimate start came at the hands of Long Dog (Willie Mullins) when he was beaten three quarters of a length in a Grade One over 16 furlongs at Leopardstown. Long Dog had the advantage of six previous starts over hurdles and it showed as Tombstone ran a bit too freely and lacked the fluency of the winner. Tombstone also found himself short of room entering the straight, but for which he would've arguably beaten the winner; looking the better horse and long term prospect in the process. His defeat last time out came over 18 furlongs at the same track and it was a performance that raised question marks over his resolution and ability to win at Grade One level. That could be an unfair analysis. They began racing a fair way from home in very deep ground, and Tombstone did come under pressure earlier than normal, but he responded to get to the front over the final hurdle before giving way to a horse who looked a stronger stayer. He travelled well for much of the race and he could be a whole different proposition dropped back to two miles on better ground.
Tombstone has plenty of soft/heavy ground influences on both sides of his breeding but his Dam was a winner on fast ground and his GrandDam was closely related to a four time winner on faster ground. He doesn't have the action of a horse who needs testing conditions as a prerequisite to producing his best and, if drying conditions prevail at Cheltenham, his chances may be enhanced rather than compromised. His owners have always been bullish about taking on Min and they do have a line into their chances, being the owners of the aforementioned Ball D'Arc who is also with the same Trainer and also entered in this race. However Tombstone appears to be their number one choice and he looks worth an e/w consideration in the win market.
Summary:
Min, like Douvan last year, carries stable confidence and it didn't pay to oppose the favourite then. However, Min is currently trading shorter and that doesn't appeal on value grounds alone. This is arguably a stronger renewal and there are alternatives at bigger prices who are open to serious improvement. Ground conditions will be different to those that many have been encountering, although early statements that it is riding 'dead' may not be music to the ears of those that were hoping for faster conditions on the first day. We have sided with Tombstone ante post but we will supplement that with win bets on both the Henderson inmates.
Selections: (Outlay - 4 pts)
Tombstone - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1. (Bet365, 88 Sport, Boylesports, 32Red, Betfair. (1/4 odds first 3)
Altior - 1.25 pts win @ 4/1 (Generally available)
Buveur D'Air - 0.75 pts win @ 15/2. (Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Betbright, William Hill)
2.10 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016
Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles on the old course.
The Arkle is a chase open to Novices of five years and upwards run over two miles and is classed as their Championship race. It is normally highly competitive and to win a horse needs to be able to jump well at speed. Many good quality Novices over fences, and previously hurdles, have failed this test.
Trends:
Classy hurdlers who have achieved an Official Rating of 142+ over the smaller obstacles have won all but one of the recent renewals of this race and that horse was receiving a weight for age allowance which no longer exists. Horses that had won a Pattern race over hurdles have won six of the last eight renewals of the Arkle and six of the last fifteen winners were the top rated hurdlers in the race. In five of the last six years the race has gone to either the top rated or second top rated hurdler. A recent prep run is an advantage. Only two of the last 29 winners of this race had failed to win or finish second in their previous race and only one winner in nearly two decades had fallen earlier in the season. This is a race that brutally exposes jumping frailties and any mistakes are normally costly for win purposes. Previous course form, and in particular Festival form, is a big positive. Front runners have a poor record in this race but the winners typically adopt a stalking position rather than be held up from well off the pace. The previous seasons Neptune Novices Hurdle, the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton, the Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown and the Arkle Novices Chase at the same track, the Craddockstown Chase at Punchestown, the Racing Post Arkle trial on this track and the Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown have all proved good trials for this race. Since the weight allowance was removed in 2008 only eight five year olds have taken their chances in this race. In the past nine years this race has gone to a seven year old six times, a six year old twice and an eight year old once.
Trends Summary:
10 of the last 12 winners had either won at Cheltenham or been placed at the Festival.
5 of the last 12 winners had finished in the first four of a Novice hurdle at the previous year's Festival.
8 of the last 15 winners were either the top rated or second top rated hurdler in the field.
6 of the last 9 had won a pattern race over hurdles.
Only 2 of the last 29 winners had not been placed in the first two in their previous race.
Only 2 of the past 16 winners was not officially rated 142+ over hurdles.
Only two winnes in the past three decades was a front runner.
Only 2 of the 24 winners has started at bigger than 11/1 and second, third or fourth favourites have been responsible for 15 of the last 23 winners
Only two winners in the last 18 years had fallen in a previous race over fences.
Analysis:
Douvan is by far the shortest price favourite of the week and, much as it appeals to take him on, it doesn't make much sense to do so. If he puts in a clear round then it's highly likely he will win because he is simply the best horse in the race. Backing a horse to fall is a quick way the poor house but putting a huge wedge on him to get round is too much for anyone other than those with the strongest of hearts. The small field means that the 'without Douvan' market doesn't make much appeal either. A race to watch and hopefully admire a future superstar.
Selection:
No Bet.
2.50 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016.
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 3 miles half a furlong on the old course.
Traditionally the first handicap run at the Festival. It is open to horses five years old and upwards. It's often used as a trial for the Grand National and it's wise to be aware of horses being potentially aimed at that specific target. This is a demanding test of stamina due to the large field often leading to a fast pace as horses seek a good early position. Horses held up tend to do well.
Trends:
Eleven of the fifteen winners this century have come from the first four in the market but in that time there has only been one winning favourite and only two in the last 30 renewals. Only six of the races this century have had 23 or 24 runners and in three of those there were big priced winners (28/1, 33/1 and 50/1). Last time out winners have fared well in this race. In the past 13 years 18% of the runners ( 47) were successful on their last run and seven of them won this race. This handicap lends itself to unexposed types. Prior to 2004 a Novice Chaser hadn't won this race for nearly 40 years but Fork Lightning broke that trend and since then there have been three more. This century eight of the eleven winners have been second season Chasers and seven of the last nine had run nine of less times over fences. Former Festival winning form has been in the resume of two of the last seven winners. The last four winners have all worn some sort of headgear and that has been the case in five of the last eight winners. Only one of those five winners was sporting headgear for the first time so it's a race where a horse shouldn't be excluded just because he is wearing blinkers, a visor, a hood, cheekpieces or a combination. Jonjo O'Neill (in particular) and Alan King are Trainers to note from these shores while the Irish, although not particularly targeting this race, have done well with the few runners they have entered and Tony Martin is one to keep an eye on from the Emerald Isle. It's been a graveyard for Paul Nicholls who has had eighteen runners with only two placing. Proven stamina is a big asset with all fifteen winners this century having run over at least three miles, four of them had run over four miles. All fifteen had recorded their best RPR over an extended 23 furlongs or further. The Cleeve Hurdle over three miles on Cheltenham Trials day in January and the Sodexo Gold Cup Chase at Ascot in October have proved to the best trials for this race.
Trends Summary:
All 15 winners this century recorded their best RPR over at least an extended 23 furlongs.
7 of the last 13 winners had won their previous start.
6 of the last 8 winners were rated between 142 and 146.
The last 4 winners all wore headgear.
12 of the last 15 winners were Novices or second season Chasers.
Jonjo O'Neill, Alan King and Tony Martin are Trainers to note.
2 of the last 7 winners had winning form at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
11 of the last 15 winners have come from the first four in the betting (although fields of 23 or 24 runners (6 times) this century has led to three big priced winners).
Only 3 of the last 10 winners had run more than 9 times over fences.
2007 was the last time a winner of this race had previously won a graded race.
Those ridden prominently have traditionally struggled.
Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner from 18 entries.
Analysis:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail so analysis will be mainly confined to those horses selected for backing purposes.
There could be some well handicapped horses in this race and that includes the two at the head of the market, Out Sam and Holywell. Out Sam easily beat Milansbar last time out giving him four pounds and the runner up has subsequently franked the form and is now in possession of a mark of 145. Warren Greatrex must have thought Christmas had come early when the assessor allocated Out Sam 139. His three races over fences have come in small fields and that could be a stumbling block. Holywell comes good at this time of year and Cheltenham is his track. He won the Pertemps Final in 2013, this race in 2014 and was fourth in the Gold Cup last season. This is just his third run in a handicap and if he comes back into form a mark of 153 won't stop him. Similar comments apply to Southfield Theatre who is well weighted on his RSA Chase form last season but has disappointed in two starts in this campaign. Single figure prices in a race of this nature make limited appeal and preference is for Beg To Differ andBallykan, even though they are both six years old and there hasn't been a winner from that age group in the past decade.
Beg To Differ (Jonjo O'Neill): Novice Chaser who makes his fifth start over fences. He has shown significant improvement from race to race and won for the first over the bigger obstacles last time out at Sandown. He did that in taking fashion and looks capable of improving beyond this ten pound higher mark. The first time visor he wore on that occasion is retained and his trainer has won this race three times in the past seven years, twice with Novices. There is room for improvement in the jumping department but the penny is beginning to drop and he has plenty of size and scope about him. He has yet to race on anything faster than soft ground but there is faster ground form on his Dam's side.
Ballykan (Nigel Twiston-Davies): Back to form on better ground at Kempton last time out, an effort that should be marked up because he was up with the pace in a race that was suited to the closers. He will probably have to be ridden with a little more restraint here but he could be well weighted. He is a Novice and this is just his sixth start over fences. He was beaten just over 12 lengths by Theatre Guide at Kempton but he is now 12 pounds better off with that rival and arguably open to greater improvement. The ground has turned in his favour and he stays.
Selections: (outlay - 3 pts)
Beg To Differ - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1 (Sky Bet, 1/4 odds first 5)
Ballykan - 0.5 pts e/w @ 28/1. ( Betvictor, 1/4 odds first 5)
3.30 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016.
Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+).
Distance - Two miles half a furlong on the old course.
The first of the four major races at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle is open to horses of four years old and upwards who have been allocated a rating of 130 or more.
Trends:
This race normally doesn't bear much resemblance to the Trials which are usually steadily run small field affairs. Horses need to have the ability to quicken off a fast gallop and it's not surprising that the form book in this race sometimes go out of the window. Previous Cheltenham Festival form has been a bigger asset in this race than most other Festival races. Upsets are more common in this race than either of the other three Championship races with the average starting price in the past 12 renewals being 10/1. Only two horses since 1992 have won this race without winning a Graded race prior to the Festival. Although the Trials are usually a poor guide 16 of the last 17 winners ran at the previous seasons's Festival; 8 of those won and 7 others were placed. Four of the last ten winners had been beaten in the previous season's renewal, a stat that will interest fans of The New One. Five year olds have an appalling record in this race with only one winning from 94 entries since 1985, but in recent seasons there have been a number who have placed. Horses with top handicap form shouldn't be dismissed too readily with 3 of the last 13 winners having won handicaps in the autumn of their Champion campaign. Horses that started their career on the flat have won 13 of the last 20 renewals, including 6 of the last 9. Surprisingly, given the normal fast pace of this race, prominent racers fare well. Key races to note are the previous season's Champion Hurdle, Neptune Novices and Triumph Hurdle, The Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, The Punchestown Champion Hurdle, the Hatton Grace at Fairyhouse, the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, The Fighting fifth at Newcastle, The Kingwell at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Trends Summary:
15 of the 17 winners of this race were placed at the previous season's Festival, eight of them winning.
3 of the last 12 winners have gone off at 16/1 or bigger with the average SP over that period being 10/1.
4 of the last 10 winners were placed in the race the previous year.
3 of the last 13 winners won a handicap earlier in the season.
11 of the last 17 winners were Irish-trained.
13 of the last 20 winners, including six of the last nine, started off on the flat.
16 of the last 22 winners had already won a Grade One over hurdles.
5 year olds have a poor winning record but a number have placed in recent seasons.
Only 1 of the last 9 winners had run more than 12 times over hurdles.
Analysis:
The defection of Faugheen due to injury burnt many Ante-Post bets and threw this race wide open. The later withdrawal of stablemate Arctic Fire, also through injury, threw another spanner into the works and the yard have steadied the ship by supplementing the Mare, Annie Power. She was muted as a Champion Hurdle contender in 2014 and was an unfortunate faller at the final flight when having the Mares race at her mercy last season. She gets a seven pound allowance in this race and that puts her top of the tree at the weights. She has only tasted defeat once when she has completed and that was when narrowly denied by More Than That in the World Hurdle in 2014. She has had her setbacks but managed to get a prep run behind her in February. That was a weak three runner Mares race and bears little resemblance to what she will face here. She has the speed for this trip but having been prepared for the longer Mares race is far from ideal and this will be her first race over a distance this short since winning at Doncaster in January 2014. She has only had to dig deep once in her career and came up short and, although it produced a career best effort, she is likely to have go deeper into the well here, even if this isn't a vintage renewal. There's little doubt she has the inherent class to win this, and the Mares allowance will be a big help, but she is short enough and looks worth taking on at the price. Arguments still rage whether The New One was unlucky when hampered by the ill-fated Our Connor in this race in 2014. He looked visually unlucky but he was tapped for toe coming down the hill before running on again on the rise to the line. He wasn't right when finishing fifth in this race last season and has had a better preparation this time round. His Trainer still retains faith but it's not hard to think that he may just be shy of the standard required to win this race. The ground will be in his favour and he could make the frame but his tendency to jump right won't help his chances. Camping Ground is the top rated horse in this race and he opened many eyes when bolting up in the Relkeel Hurdle over an extended 20 furlongs on the New Course here in January. That was on heavy ground and he didn't follow it up in the Cleeve Hurdle over three miles here under similar conditions. He probably didn't stay on that occasion but dropping back to two miles on faster ground poses a whole different problem. He has only raced once over two miles in this country when finishing fourth in the Imperial Cup from a mark of 150 and that shouldn't be good enough to win this. There is faster ground form on his Dam's side so conditions may not be against him but whether he has the basic speed has to be a doubt. Nichols Canyon has won six Grade One hurdle races and was originally a smart stayer on the flat. He is battle hardened whose last win came at the expense of Identity Thief who he seemed to outstay in the heavy ground at Leopardstown. He has since disappointed at the same track but has been given a break since in an attempt to freshen him up. He was beaten five lengths into third when favourite for last season's Neptune Novices and that was his worst performance on ratings in his last six starts, although being held up clearly doesn't suit him. His best performance on the flat came when winning over almost two miles in heavy ground and it has to be doubtful whether he can run the finish out of this field over the minimum trip on faster ground. Identity Thief came into the season with something to prove and he's certainly achieved that in his three starts. He returned with a Grade Two win at Down Royal and narrowly beat Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth the following month. He travelled for much of the race like the best horse when going down by two lengths to Nichols Canyon and he can be fancied to turn that form around on faster ground. He's bred to stay further but he doesn't look devoid of speed and could be open to major improvement. Top Notch was only just behind Peace And Co in last season's Triumph Hurdle and he has trained on far better than his stablemate on this season's evidence. He seemed to beaten fair and square by Identity Thief in the Fighting Fifth but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise were he to produce a career best and make the frame. Peace And Co has seen his wheels fall off this season. He's disappointed on both starts in this campaign and his keeness and head carriage last time out at Sandown didn't win over any fans. He could be a different horse in a fast run race on better ground but he could just as easy never fulfill the potential of last season. His Trainer also runs My Tent Or Yours who hasn't been seen since finishing third off top weight in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April of 2014. He used to pull like a train and it was an amazing performance to get within a quarter of a length of Jezki in this race in 2014. He has had his problems since and hopes rest on the fitting of a new bit. He looked much more tractable in a recent racecourse gallop with stablemate Hargam but he may be different once he is on the track for the first time in a long while. A lot has to be taken on trust but if he retains all his old ability there is no-one better getting one right off a large absence. Hargram, Lil Rockerfella, Sign Of A Victory and Sempre Medici would be surprise winners but, as discussed earlier, that can happen in this race. Of the quartet, Supreme Medici, a former smart flat horse and improving hurdler looks to hold the best claims.
Summary:
This isn't a vintage renewal but no Championship race is easy to win. Annie Power doesn't appeal on price grounds alone and there are more questions than answers amongst the remainder. Nicky Henderson hasn't won this race since 1992 but it may it may be worth taking a chance on My Tent Or Yours and Top Notch. It will be some feat if he gets My Tent Or Yours to win after so long off the track but the horse still has untapped potential if he can settle. He may have left something to work on with Top Notch.
Selections: (outlay - 3.5 pts)
My Tent Or Yours - 1 pt e/w @ 10/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first 3)
Top Notch - 0.75 pts e/w @ 18/1. (Bet365, Betvictor, Paddy Power, 1/4 odds first 3)
4.10 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016:
OLBG Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs on the Old Course.
Now one of two races at the Festival restricted to Mares (four years and upwards) and was elevated to Grade One status last year.
Trends:
Although this race normally attracts a large field but many line up with little chance and those prominent in the betting normally come to the fore. Novices have performed well in this race but, with the advent of the Mares' Novices race, some of the quality may be diluted in future. Willie Mullins, who has trained the last seven winners, Donald McCain, Nicky Henderson, Alan King and paul Nolan are Trainers to note whereas Philip Hobbs, Tony Martin and Noel Meade have never had a runner. Paul Nicholls had only had two runners, and they were well beaten, whereas Jonjo O'Neill has only had one runner but she finished a close second. Gordon Elliott has also had only one runner and she started at 100/1. This race has suited stamina laden types so far and the previous season's race has been a good guide to the winner. Races to note also include the World Series Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, The Warfield Mares' hurdle at Ascot in January, the Doncaster Mares' Hurdle the same month, theOLBG.com Mares' hurdle in November, the 32Red.com Mares' Hurdle at Sandown in January and the Willis European Breeders' Fund Mares' Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Trends Summary:
The market has been as good as guide as any with six favourites and a second favourite winning from eight renewals.
Trainers of note include Willie Mullins , who has won this for the past seven years, Nicky Henderson, Donald McCain, Alan King and Paul Nolan.
Form over three miles has proved a good asset.
Novices fare well.
This is not a race targeted by Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott, Philip Hobbs or Noel Meade.
Analysis:
Vroum Vroum Mag has been declared for this race after Annie power was rerouted to the Champion Hurdle. The vibes for her chances have been strong and even her jockey (Ruby Walsh) rates her as better value at evens that Douvan at 2/5. She won with ridiculous ease at Ascot last time out where she had the below form The Govaness well behind. She hasn't come off the bridle in either start over hurdles since coming from France and has won all five starts over fences. In a race which is more akin to 'handicap quality' it may be folly to take on a Mare who could be a class above. She looks priced on potential rather than what she has actually achieved but the lack of any depth of credible opposition is also probably built into her odds.
Summary:
As much as we would like to take on Vroum Vroum Mag it's difficult to be confident about any of her opposition posing a serious threat. With all bookmakers only offering e/w terms on the first three we will sit this one out and see if the favourite can reflect the hype.
Selection:
No Bet.
4.50 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016:
146th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ )
Distance: Four miles on the Old Course.
The longest race at the Festival and one which is re-inventing itself after alterations in recent years. The penalties were removed in 2010 and it is now targeted by classy novices and Grade One form has infiltrated the form books in recent seasons. The restriction of not allowing winning hurdlers to take part was removed in 2002. Experience has proved a valuable asset and a good jockey can mean the difference between winning and losing.
Trends:
Since the change in race conditions the better horses have come to the fore. Horses that get into a good jumping rhythm and are prepared to battle in the latter stages are the types required in a race of this attritional nature. That lends itself to horses with plenty of Chasing experience and an early start in the season over fences is an advantage. In common with the Kim Muir the majority of horses will have been professionally ridden all season so the ability of the amateur on board has to be taken into account. Now the race is off level weights, the better horses are favoured and these attract the top amateurs. Three of the last five favourites have won and the other two winners were in the first four in the betting. The three that won were also top rated and the other two held Official Ratings in the top four. Under the current format five of the last six winners had run in a Grade One or Grade Two Chase In the last six renewals ten horses had run in a grade One Chase and four of those were successful. Previous form at the Festival didn't use to be important but that has changed since 2010 with four of the last six winners having previous form at this Festival. As the quality of the race has improved and the penalties for winning races removed, last time out winners have done well. Four out of the last six winners won on their previous start but they did represent around a third of the runners. No winner this century had run beyond 29 furlongs over fences and only 2 had run beyond 26 furlongs. Assessing a horse's potential to stay this trip is obviously crucial when trying to find the winner and the eyes are a better indication than the form book in this respect. 4 winners in the past 14 years sported blinkers or cheekpieces and none of them were wearing them for the first time. Certain trainers target this race whereas others seem to have little interest in it. Paul Nicholls has had many fancied runners but his record is 0 from 16 and only one of them placed. Willie Mullins likes to plot a horse up for this race for his son Patrick and Alan king has also done well in recent seasons. J.P McManus was winning this race for the fifth time when Cause of Causes won last season. Key races include the Neville Hotels Novice race (Grade One) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the Kauto Star Novices' Chase (Grade One) at Kempton on Boxing Day, the mallardjewellers.com Novices' Chase at Cheltenham in November.
Trends summary:
The last 6 winners had all run in a Chase by the end of October.
4 of the last 6 winners had run in a Grade One Chase from only 10 runners.
3 of the last 5 winners were top rated and favourite and all five were in the first four in the market.
J.P McManus has owned five winners.
Since the race became a level weights race the leading amateurs have dominated.
Horses in headgear have a decent record.
4 of the last 6 winners had run at the previous season's Festival.
5 of the last 6 winners had spent at least two seasons over hurdles.
4 of the last 5 winners were rated at least 146.
Jonjo O'Neill sent out his 5th winner of this race in 2008 but all five runners since have been unplaced.
1999 was the last time a winner had less than three previous starts over fences under rules.
Paul Nicholls has fired 16 blanks despite having plenty of fancied entries.
Analysis:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail so analysis will be mainly confined to those horses selected for backing purposes.
Southfield Royale: A decent Novice hurdler last season but has already surpassed those exploits in four starts over fences. He won two of those which included a 13 length victory in a Grade Two Novice at Doncaster . Being by Presenting he is bred to appreciate better ground and there's plenty of stamina in his pedigree. He was last seen on Boxing Day when he was a four length second to Tea For Two in a grade One Novice Chase and that continued his upward curve. Partnered with a top jockey in Nina Carberry and the cheekpieces he has won on his last two starts are retained. Satisfies plenty of the key trends and represents a talented young trainer whose horses are in very good form. Negatives include a lack of any form at Cheltenham and spent only one season over hurdles.
Measureofmydreams: It's been 17 years since a horse with less than two runs under their belt won this race but if anybody can defy that stat, then it's Willie Mullins. Measureofmydreams has already shown vastly superior form in two starts over fences than he did over hurdles. He has won both starts as a Chaser, the last a fortunate win in a Grade Two Novice after the favourite departed. That favourite was stablemate Black Hercules and he had Noble Endeavour five lengths behind him. He has yet to race under rules on anything faster than soft but his trainer is of the opinion that better ground will suit and he shapes like a thorough stayer. Has the potential for more and is partnered by Katie Walsh.
Selection: (outlay 3.5 pts)
Southfield Royale - 1.5 pts win @ 7/1. (Generally available)
Measureofmydreams - 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1. (Generally available at 11/1, 1/4 odds first 4)
Sky Bet Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: 2 miles half a furlong on the old course.
The traditional curtain raiser to the Festival run over the same distance as the Champion Hurdle and open to Novices four years old and upwards. Runners are required to jump eight flights and the race is noted for it's fast pace.
Trends:
Backing horses in this race just because they are the highest rated coming into the event has not been a good strategy. Many of these have been backed into favouritism and failed at short prices. In a race such as this where most are very unexposed it may not be the horse that has produced the best form so far that produces the best performance on the day. The Irish have won 14 of the last 24 renewals of this race and, in recent seasons, it has been their main hope according to the market which has prevailed. Winners of top class Novice races invariably need a prep run and the trends for the Supreme support that theory. Only one winner in the past couple of decades was absent for more than 68 days and only four absent for more than 45 days. Last time out winners have featured prominently in the winners enclosure of the vast majority of recent renewals and over half of those have won their two previous races. This is a race where it doesn't pay to be held up and being able to travel, race prominently and stay are normally assets that give a horse it's best chance. Flat bred horses used to be the order of the day for this race but that has been turned on it's head in recent years, partly due to the desire of producing good to soft ground on the opening day of the Festival. Six year olds have won 11 of the last 22 renewals of this race and five year olds have won seven.The races which have been the best pointers to the winners of this race are the previous season's Champion Bumper, The Delottie Hurdle at Leopardstown, The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse, and The EBF Novices hurdle at this track. A race that seems to throw up horses that do not fare well in the Supreme Is the SkyBet Novices race here in November.
Trends Summary:
Ex Bumper horses have been responsible for 20 of the last 24 win and place positions.
Every winner in the past decade had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.
17 of the last 19 winners had won their pr evious race, 13 of them the last two.
This is the most successful race for the Irish at the Festival, winning 13 of the last 24.
9 of the last 11 winners had run at least three times over hurdles.
4 of the last 13 winners finished in the first five of the previous season's Champion Bumper.
Nicky Henderson's horses tend to run well
Of those with entries, Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have trained more than one previous winner of the race.
Short priced favourites (3/1 or less) have a very poor record in the race.(4 from 19)
Horses given noticeable hold up rides have only won 3 of last 19 renewals.
Only 1 of the last 21 winners had been absent for more than 68 days, 17 winners had run in the previous 45 days.
Only 1 ex flat horse has filled the win or place positions in the past eight seasons.
Analysis:
As with many of the races at this Festival, the first stop will be anything that represents Wille Mullins. His 'hotpot' here is the long time favourite Min. His form has been taken to a new level since joining new connections and he has been undeniably impressive in dispatching his opposition in two starts in Ireland. There is some substance to his form with Ball D'Arc, who was beaten eleven lengths into third when Min beat him last time out, winning a Listed and Grade Two since. Coupled with the yard winning this for the last three years and it's not surprising that he has been all the rage for this. He is a slick jumper with pace to burn but whether that entitles him to be a relatively short price is open to debate. He can be keen and his longer than ideal absence could see him a bit too 'fizzy'. He is currently shorter in the market than either Vautour or Douvan were when successful in this race in the past two years and, on that basis alone, he looks worth taking on. We have taken an ante-post stance on Tombstone and the reasoning for that will be repeated at the end of this analysis. Nicky Henderson has two very live contenders in Altior and Buveur D'Air but his win record in this race isn't compelling; he was last successful in this race back in 1992. Altior can be keen but he was impressive when winning at Kempton off a fast pace and his fractions in the final stages bore comparison with Faugheen later on the card. A direct comparison with that horse is unwise but it did support the theory that he has a serious turn of foot when he engages top gear. He was under pressure on the home turn but, not for the first time, he responded well for his jockey's urgings and put 13 lengths between himself and his rivals at the line. If he hits a flat spot in this race he may find some of these gone beyond recall but he is on a steep upward curve and the form of the Kempton race has worked out well. Buveur D'Air is more of a staying type, he is a half brother to smart stayer Punchestowns, but he doesn't lack pace. He could be well suited by a fast run two miles and is another who isn't ground dependent. His debut victory at Newbury has been franked by plenty of those that finished behind but his second victory at long odds on didn't tell us much. His Trainer can't split him and Altior, and there may not be much between them, but Altior is the more experienced and his form may have a bit more substance. Supersundae looks to possess a serious engine. He got within five lengths of a Willie Mullins inmate (who isn't at this Festival) on his hurdling debut despite jumping poorly and, after taking a long look at the first on his second start, improved in the jumping department as the race progressed; eventually running out a convincing winner. He gives the impression that he has plenty to learn but, if it all comes together in this race, then he is capable of outrunning his price. He has a useful turn of foot, is versatile regarding ground conditions and clearly goes well for Jonathon Burke. He represents a Trainer who should never be underestimated when it comes to the 'big time'. He has been pleasing in home schooling but he has to translate that to the track. Of the others, Charbel and Silver Concorde appeal most. Charbel made all to win the Scottish Supreme trial but, while that is useful form, he needs a major chunk of improvement to trouble the principals in this race. Silver Concorde possesses plenty of speed, having won the 2014 Champion Bumper, but he hasn't transferred that ability to hurdles in three starts to date. Two of them have been on unsuitable heavy ground but a near 16 length defeat to Nichols Canyon on yielding ground in the other doesn't look form good enough to win this race. He was an improver on the flat last year but the jury is still out on whether he can be as useful when obstacles are put in his way.
The opening race of the Cheltenham Festival sees the first of the Willie Mullins 'big guns' heading the market; Min is a current best priced 7/4 and as low as 5/4 with a few layers. He was beaten in his two starts in his native France but his obvious talent has been unleashed by his current handler and he has won both starts in Ireland with consummate ease. It's difficult to gauge just what he achieved but the second of those victories came in a Grade Two and the well beaten third, Ball D'Arc, followed up in a Listed Novice race at Punchestown and a Grade Two at Naas. Min is a slick jumper, and his best work at home is said to be done on better ground, so if there are drying conditions they are unlikely to inconvenience him. The yard have won the last three renewals of this race with Vautour (2014) and Douvan (2015) achieving it without coming under much pressure. Min is a keen going sort but he looks to have a serious engine and taking time to settle didn't harm Douvan's chances when he took this race last season. Educating a horse and teaching them how to 'race/battle' used to be an advantage in these Championship races but horses from this yard are re-writing the rules. Given the events of the past two seasons it wouldn't be a surprise to see Min stride up the hill in splendid isolation but it's arguable whether his form so far is worthy of such a short price. His odds mean there are some very good horses in opposition at tempting prices and the one that appeals most at this stage is Tombstone.
He holds entries for both the Supreme Novices and the Neptune Novices (21 furlongs) but, having raced over 16-18 furlongs in his four starts over hurdles to date, it's the Supreme which looks to be the way that connections are leaning. Tombstone's owners have A Toi Phil (Willie Mullins) also entered in the same two races and he has run over 20 furlongs in two of his three races over hurdles so he seems to be the logical choice for the longer event. Tombstone goes to Cheltenham having won his second start over hurdles but being beaten into second in his last two outings. That is not the typical profile of a possible winner of the Grade One opener but it doesn't tell the whole story. His defeat on his penultimate start came at the hands of Long Dog (Willie Mullins) when he was beaten three quarters of a length in a Grade One over 16 furlongs at Leopardstown. Long Dog had the advantage of six previous starts over hurdles and it showed as Tombstone ran a bit too freely and lacked the fluency of the winner. Tombstone also found himself short of room entering the straight, but for which he would've arguably beaten the winner; looking the better horse and long term prospect in the process. His defeat last time out came over 18 furlongs at the same track and it was a performance that raised question marks over his resolution and ability to win at Grade One level. That could be an unfair analysis. They began racing a fair way from home in very deep ground, and Tombstone did come under pressure earlier than normal, but he responded to get to the front over the final hurdle before giving way to a horse who looked a stronger stayer. He travelled well for much of the race and he could be a whole different proposition dropped back to two miles on better ground.
Tombstone has plenty of soft/heavy ground influences on both sides of his breeding but his Dam was a winner on fast ground and his GrandDam was closely related to a four time winner on faster ground. He doesn't have the action of a horse who needs testing conditions as a prerequisite to producing his best and, if drying conditions prevail at Cheltenham, his chances may be enhanced rather than compromised. His owners have always been bullish about taking on Min and they do have a line into their chances, being the owners of the aforementioned Ball D'Arc who is also with the same Trainer and also entered in this race. However Tombstone appears to be their number one choice and he looks worth an e/w consideration in the win market.
Summary:
Min, like Douvan last year, carries stable confidence and it didn't pay to oppose the favourite then. However, Min is currently trading shorter and that doesn't appeal on value grounds alone. This is arguably a stronger renewal and there are alternatives at bigger prices who are open to serious improvement. Ground conditions will be different to those that many have been encountering, although early statements that it is riding 'dead' may not be music to the ears of those that were hoping for faster conditions on the first day. We have sided with Tombstone ante post but we will supplement that with win bets on both the Henderson inmates.
Selections: (Outlay - 4 pts)
Tombstone - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1. (Bet365, 88 Sport, Boylesports, 32Red, Betfair. (1/4 odds first 3)
Altior - 1.25 pts win @ 4/1 (Generally available)
Buveur D'Air - 0.75 pts win @ 15/2. (Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Betbright, William Hill)
2.10 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016
Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles on the old course.
The Arkle is a chase open to Novices of five years and upwards run over two miles and is classed as their Championship race. It is normally highly competitive and to win a horse needs to be able to jump well at speed. Many good quality Novices over fences, and previously hurdles, have failed this test.
Trends:
Classy hurdlers who have achieved an Official Rating of 142+ over the smaller obstacles have won all but one of the recent renewals of this race and that horse was receiving a weight for age allowance which no longer exists. Horses that had won a Pattern race over hurdles have won six of the last eight renewals of the Arkle and six of the last fifteen winners were the top rated hurdlers in the race. In five of the last six years the race has gone to either the top rated or second top rated hurdler. A recent prep run is an advantage. Only two of the last 29 winners of this race had failed to win or finish second in their previous race and only one winner in nearly two decades had fallen earlier in the season. This is a race that brutally exposes jumping frailties and any mistakes are normally costly for win purposes. Previous course form, and in particular Festival form, is a big positive. Front runners have a poor record in this race but the winners typically adopt a stalking position rather than be held up from well off the pace. The previous seasons Neptune Novices Hurdle, the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton, the Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown and the Arkle Novices Chase at the same track, the Craddockstown Chase at Punchestown, the Racing Post Arkle trial on this track and the Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown have all proved good trials for this race. Since the weight allowance was removed in 2008 only eight five year olds have taken their chances in this race. In the past nine years this race has gone to a seven year old six times, a six year old twice and an eight year old once.
Trends Summary:
10 of the last 12 winners had either won at Cheltenham or been placed at the Festival.
5 of the last 12 winners had finished in the first four of a Novice hurdle at the previous year's Festival.
8 of the last 15 winners were either the top rated or second top rated hurdler in the field.
6 of the last 9 had won a pattern race over hurdles.
Only 2 of the last 29 winners had not been placed in the first two in their previous race.
Only 2 of the past 16 winners was not officially rated 142+ over hurdles.
Only two winnes in the past three decades was a front runner.
Only 2 of the 24 winners has started at bigger than 11/1 and second, third or fourth favourites have been responsible for 15 of the last 23 winners
Only two winners in the last 18 years had fallen in a previous race over fences.
Analysis:
Douvan is by far the shortest price favourite of the week and, much as it appeals to take him on, it doesn't make much sense to do so. If he puts in a clear round then it's highly likely he will win because he is simply the best horse in the race. Backing a horse to fall is a quick way the poor house but putting a huge wedge on him to get round is too much for anyone other than those with the strongest of hearts. The small field means that the 'without Douvan' market doesn't make much appeal either. A race to watch and hopefully admire a future superstar.
Selection:
No Bet.
2.50 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016.
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 3 miles half a furlong on the old course.
Traditionally the first handicap run at the Festival. It is open to horses five years old and upwards. It's often used as a trial for the Grand National and it's wise to be aware of horses being potentially aimed at that specific target. This is a demanding test of stamina due to the large field often leading to a fast pace as horses seek a good early position. Horses held up tend to do well.
Trends:
Eleven of the fifteen winners this century have come from the first four in the market but in that time there has only been one winning favourite and only two in the last 30 renewals. Only six of the races this century have had 23 or 24 runners and in three of those there were big priced winners (28/1, 33/1 and 50/1). Last time out winners have fared well in this race. In the past 13 years 18% of the runners ( 47) were successful on their last run and seven of them won this race. This handicap lends itself to unexposed types. Prior to 2004 a Novice Chaser hadn't won this race for nearly 40 years but Fork Lightning broke that trend and since then there have been three more. This century eight of the eleven winners have been second season Chasers and seven of the last nine had run nine of less times over fences. Former Festival winning form has been in the resume of two of the last seven winners. The last four winners have all worn some sort of headgear and that has been the case in five of the last eight winners. Only one of those five winners was sporting headgear for the first time so it's a race where a horse shouldn't be excluded just because he is wearing blinkers, a visor, a hood, cheekpieces or a combination. Jonjo O'Neill (in particular) and Alan King are Trainers to note from these shores while the Irish, although not particularly targeting this race, have done well with the few runners they have entered and Tony Martin is one to keep an eye on from the Emerald Isle. It's been a graveyard for Paul Nicholls who has had eighteen runners with only two placing. Proven stamina is a big asset with all fifteen winners this century having run over at least three miles, four of them had run over four miles. All fifteen had recorded their best RPR over an extended 23 furlongs or further. The Cleeve Hurdle over three miles on Cheltenham Trials day in January and the Sodexo Gold Cup Chase at Ascot in October have proved to the best trials for this race.
Trends Summary:
All 15 winners this century recorded their best RPR over at least an extended 23 furlongs.
7 of the last 13 winners had won their previous start.
6 of the last 8 winners were rated between 142 and 146.
The last 4 winners all wore headgear.
12 of the last 15 winners were Novices or second season Chasers.
Jonjo O'Neill, Alan King and Tony Martin are Trainers to note.
2 of the last 7 winners had winning form at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
11 of the last 15 winners have come from the first four in the betting (although fields of 23 or 24 runners (6 times) this century has led to three big priced winners).
Only 3 of the last 10 winners had run more than 9 times over fences.
2007 was the last time a winner of this race had previously won a graded race.
Those ridden prominently have traditionally struggled.
Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner from 18 entries.
Analysis:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail so analysis will be mainly confined to those horses selected for backing purposes.
There could be some well handicapped horses in this race and that includes the two at the head of the market, Out Sam and Holywell. Out Sam easily beat Milansbar last time out giving him four pounds and the runner up has subsequently franked the form and is now in possession of a mark of 145. Warren Greatrex must have thought Christmas had come early when the assessor allocated Out Sam 139. His three races over fences have come in small fields and that could be a stumbling block. Holywell comes good at this time of year and Cheltenham is his track. He won the Pertemps Final in 2013, this race in 2014 and was fourth in the Gold Cup last season. This is just his third run in a handicap and if he comes back into form a mark of 153 won't stop him. Similar comments apply to Southfield Theatre who is well weighted on his RSA Chase form last season but has disappointed in two starts in this campaign. Single figure prices in a race of this nature make limited appeal and preference is for Beg To Differ andBallykan, even though they are both six years old and there hasn't been a winner from that age group in the past decade.
Beg To Differ (Jonjo O'Neill): Novice Chaser who makes his fifth start over fences. He has shown significant improvement from race to race and won for the first over the bigger obstacles last time out at Sandown. He did that in taking fashion and looks capable of improving beyond this ten pound higher mark. The first time visor he wore on that occasion is retained and his trainer has won this race three times in the past seven years, twice with Novices. There is room for improvement in the jumping department but the penny is beginning to drop and he has plenty of size and scope about him. He has yet to race on anything faster than soft ground but there is faster ground form on his Dam's side.
Ballykan (Nigel Twiston-Davies): Back to form on better ground at Kempton last time out, an effort that should be marked up because he was up with the pace in a race that was suited to the closers. He will probably have to be ridden with a little more restraint here but he could be well weighted. He is a Novice and this is just his sixth start over fences. He was beaten just over 12 lengths by Theatre Guide at Kempton but he is now 12 pounds better off with that rival and arguably open to greater improvement. The ground has turned in his favour and he stays.
Selections: (outlay - 3 pts)
Beg To Differ - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1 (Sky Bet, 1/4 odds first 5)
Ballykan - 0.5 pts e/w @ 28/1. ( Betvictor, 1/4 odds first 5)
3.30 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016.
Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+).
Distance - Two miles half a furlong on the old course.
The first of the four major races at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle is open to horses of four years old and upwards who have been allocated a rating of 130 or more.
Trends:
This race normally doesn't bear much resemblance to the Trials which are usually steadily run small field affairs. Horses need to have the ability to quicken off a fast gallop and it's not surprising that the form book in this race sometimes go out of the window. Previous Cheltenham Festival form has been a bigger asset in this race than most other Festival races. Upsets are more common in this race than either of the other three Championship races with the average starting price in the past 12 renewals being 10/1. Only two horses since 1992 have won this race without winning a Graded race prior to the Festival. Although the Trials are usually a poor guide 16 of the last 17 winners ran at the previous seasons's Festival; 8 of those won and 7 others were placed. Four of the last ten winners had been beaten in the previous season's renewal, a stat that will interest fans of The New One. Five year olds have an appalling record in this race with only one winning from 94 entries since 1985, but in recent seasons there have been a number who have placed. Horses with top handicap form shouldn't be dismissed too readily with 3 of the last 13 winners having won handicaps in the autumn of their Champion campaign. Horses that started their career on the flat have won 13 of the last 20 renewals, including 6 of the last 9. Surprisingly, given the normal fast pace of this race, prominent racers fare well. Key races to note are the previous season's Champion Hurdle, Neptune Novices and Triumph Hurdle, The Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, The Punchestown Champion Hurdle, the Hatton Grace at Fairyhouse, the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, The Fighting fifth at Newcastle, The Kingwell at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Trends Summary:
15 of the 17 winners of this race were placed at the previous season's Festival, eight of them winning.
3 of the last 12 winners have gone off at 16/1 or bigger with the average SP over that period being 10/1.
4 of the last 10 winners were placed in the race the previous year.
3 of the last 13 winners won a handicap earlier in the season.
11 of the last 17 winners were Irish-trained.
13 of the last 20 winners, including six of the last nine, started off on the flat.
16 of the last 22 winners had already won a Grade One over hurdles.
5 year olds have a poor winning record but a number have placed in recent seasons.
Only 1 of the last 9 winners had run more than 12 times over hurdles.
Analysis:
The defection of Faugheen due to injury burnt many Ante-Post bets and threw this race wide open. The later withdrawal of stablemate Arctic Fire, also through injury, threw another spanner into the works and the yard have steadied the ship by supplementing the Mare, Annie Power. She was muted as a Champion Hurdle contender in 2014 and was an unfortunate faller at the final flight when having the Mares race at her mercy last season. She gets a seven pound allowance in this race and that puts her top of the tree at the weights. She has only tasted defeat once when she has completed and that was when narrowly denied by More Than That in the World Hurdle in 2014. She has had her setbacks but managed to get a prep run behind her in February. That was a weak three runner Mares race and bears little resemblance to what she will face here. She has the speed for this trip but having been prepared for the longer Mares race is far from ideal and this will be her first race over a distance this short since winning at Doncaster in January 2014. She has only had to dig deep once in her career and came up short and, although it produced a career best effort, she is likely to have go deeper into the well here, even if this isn't a vintage renewal. There's little doubt she has the inherent class to win this, and the Mares allowance will be a big help, but she is short enough and looks worth taking on at the price. Arguments still rage whether The New One was unlucky when hampered by the ill-fated Our Connor in this race in 2014. He looked visually unlucky but he was tapped for toe coming down the hill before running on again on the rise to the line. He wasn't right when finishing fifth in this race last season and has had a better preparation this time round. His Trainer still retains faith but it's not hard to think that he may just be shy of the standard required to win this race. The ground will be in his favour and he could make the frame but his tendency to jump right won't help his chances. Camping Ground is the top rated horse in this race and he opened many eyes when bolting up in the Relkeel Hurdle over an extended 20 furlongs on the New Course here in January. That was on heavy ground and he didn't follow it up in the Cleeve Hurdle over three miles here under similar conditions. He probably didn't stay on that occasion but dropping back to two miles on faster ground poses a whole different problem. He has only raced once over two miles in this country when finishing fourth in the Imperial Cup from a mark of 150 and that shouldn't be good enough to win this. There is faster ground form on his Dam's side so conditions may not be against him but whether he has the basic speed has to be a doubt. Nichols Canyon has won six Grade One hurdle races and was originally a smart stayer on the flat. He is battle hardened whose last win came at the expense of Identity Thief who he seemed to outstay in the heavy ground at Leopardstown. He has since disappointed at the same track but has been given a break since in an attempt to freshen him up. He was beaten five lengths into third when favourite for last season's Neptune Novices and that was his worst performance on ratings in his last six starts, although being held up clearly doesn't suit him. His best performance on the flat came when winning over almost two miles in heavy ground and it has to be doubtful whether he can run the finish out of this field over the minimum trip on faster ground. Identity Thief came into the season with something to prove and he's certainly achieved that in his three starts. He returned with a Grade Two win at Down Royal and narrowly beat Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth the following month. He travelled for much of the race like the best horse when going down by two lengths to Nichols Canyon and he can be fancied to turn that form around on faster ground. He's bred to stay further but he doesn't look devoid of speed and could be open to major improvement. Top Notch was only just behind Peace And Co in last season's Triumph Hurdle and he has trained on far better than his stablemate on this season's evidence. He seemed to beaten fair and square by Identity Thief in the Fighting Fifth but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise were he to produce a career best and make the frame. Peace And Co has seen his wheels fall off this season. He's disappointed on both starts in this campaign and his keeness and head carriage last time out at Sandown didn't win over any fans. He could be a different horse in a fast run race on better ground but he could just as easy never fulfill the potential of last season. His Trainer also runs My Tent Or Yours who hasn't been seen since finishing third off top weight in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April of 2014. He used to pull like a train and it was an amazing performance to get within a quarter of a length of Jezki in this race in 2014. He has had his problems since and hopes rest on the fitting of a new bit. He looked much more tractable in a recent racecourse gallop with stablemate Hargam but he may be different once he is on the track for the first time in a long while. A lot has to be taken on trust but if he retains all his old ability there is no-one better getting one right off a large absence. Hargram, Lil Rockerfella, Sign Of A Victory and Sempre Medici would be surprise winners but, as discussed earlier, that can happen in this race. Of the quartet, Supreme Medici, a former smart flat horse and improving hurdler looks to hold the best claims.
Summary:
This isn't a vintage renewal but no Championship race is easy to win. Annie Power doesn't appeal on price grounds alone and there are more questions than answers amongst the remainder. Nicky Henderson hasn't won this race since 1992 but it may it may be worth taking a chance on My Tent Or Yours and Top Notch. It will be some feat if he gets My Tent Or Yours to win after so long off the track but the horse still has untapped potential if he can settle. He may have left something to work on with Top Notch.
Selections: (outlay - 3.5 pts)
My Tent Or Yours - 1 pt e/w @ 10/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first 3)
Top Notch - 0.75 pts e/w @ 18/1. (Bet365, Betvictor, Paddy Power, 1/4 odds first 3)
4.10 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016:
OLBG Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs on the Old Course.
Now one of two races at the Festival restricted to Mares (four years and upwards) and was elevated to Grade One status last year.
Trends:
Although this race normally attracts a large field but many line up with little chance and those prominent in the betting normally come to the fore. Novices have performed well in this race but, with the advent of the Mares' Novices race, some of the quality may be diluted in future. Willie Mullins, who has trained the last seven winners, Donald McCain, Nicky Henderson, Alan King and paul Nolan are Trainers to note whereas Philip Hobbs, Tony Martin and Noel Meade have never had a runner. Paul Nicholls had only had two runners, and they were well beaten, whereas Jonjo O'Neill has only had one runner but she finished a close second. Gordon Elliott has also had only one runner and she started at 100/1. This race has suited stamina laden types so far and the previous season's race has been a good guide to the winner. Races to note also include the World Series Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, The Warfield Mares' hurdle at Ascot in January, the Doncaster Mares' Hurdle the same month, theOLBG.com Mares' hurdle in November, the 32Red.com Mares' Hurdle at Sandown in January and the Willis European Breeders' Fund Mares' Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Trends Summary:
The market has been as good as guide as any with six favourites and a second favourite winning from eight renewals.
Trainers of note include Willie Mullins , who has won this for the past seven years, Nicky Henderson, Donald McCain, Alan King and Paul Nolan.
Form over three miles has proved a good asset.
Novices fare well.
This is not a race targeted by Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott, Philip Hobbs or Noel Meade.
Analysis:
Vroum Vroum Mag has been declared for this race after Annie power was rerouted to the Champion Hurdle. The vibes for her chances have been strong and even her jockey (Ruby Walsh) rates her as better value at evens that Douvan at 2/5. She won with ridiculous ease at Ascot last time out where she had the below form The Govaness well behind. She hasn't come off the bridle in either start over hurdles since coming from France and has won all five starts over fences. In a race which is more akin to 'handicap quality' it may be folly to take on a Mare who could be a class above. She looks priced on potential rather than what she has actually achieved but the lack of any depth of credible opposition is also probably built into her odds.
Summary:
As much as we would like to take on Vroum Vroum Mag it's difficult to be confident about any of her opposition posing a serious threat. With all bookmakers only offering e/w terms on the first three we will sit this one out and see if the favourite can reflect the hype.
Selection:
No Bet.
4.50 - Cheltenham - Tuesday 15th March 2016:
146th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ )
Distance: Four miles on the Old Course.
The longest race at the Festival and one which is re-inventing itself after alterations in recent years. The penalties were removed in 2010 and it is now targeted by classy novices and Grade One form has infiltrated the form books in recent seasons. The restriction of not allowing winning hurdlers to take part was removed in 2002. Experience has proved a valuable asset and a good jockey can mean the difference between winning and losing.
Trends:
Since the change in race conditions the better horses have come to the fore. Horses that get into a good jumping rhythm and are prepared to battle in the latter stages are the types required in a race of this attritional nature. That lends itself to horses with plenty of Chasing experience and an early start in the season over fences is an advantage. In common with the Kim Muir the majority of horses will have been professionally ridden all season so the ability of the amateur on board has to be taken into account. Now the race is off level weights, the better horses are favoured and these attract the top amateurs. Three of the last five favourites have won and the other two winners were in the first four in the betting. The three that won were also top rated and the other two held Official Ratings in the top four. Under the current format five of the last six winners had run in a Grade One or Grade Two Chase In the last six renewals ten horses had run in a grade One Chase and four of those were successful. Previous form at the Festival didn't use to be important but that has changed since 2010 with four of the last six winners having previous form at this Festival. As the quality of the race has improved and the penalties for winning races removed, last time out winners have done well. Four out of the last six winners won on their previous start but they did represent around a third of the runners. No winner this century had run beyond 29 furlongs over fences and only 2 had run beyond 26 furlongs. Assessing a horse's potential to stay this trip is obviously crucial when trying to find the winner and the eyes are a better indication than the form book in this respect. 4 winners in the past 14 years sported blinkers or cheekpieces and none of them were wearing them for the first time. Certain trainers target this race whereas others seem to have little interest in it. Paul Nicholls has had many fancied runners but his record is 0 from 16 and only one of them placed. Willie Mullins likes to plot a horse up for this race for his son Patrick and Alan king has also done well in recent seasons. J.P McManus was winning this race for the fifth time when Cause of Causes won last season. Key races include the Neville Hotels Novice race (Grade One) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the Kauto Star Novices' Chase (Grade One) at Kempton on Boxing Day, the mallardjewellers.com Novices' Chase at Cheltenham in November.
Trends summary:
The last 6 winners had all run in a Chase by the end of October.
4 of the last 6 winners had run in a Grade One Chase from only 10 runners.
3 of the last 5 winners were top rated and favourite and all five were in the first four in the market.
J.P McManus has owned five winners.
Since the race became a level weights race the leading amateurs have dominated.
Horses in headgear have a decent record.
4 of the last 6 winners had run at the previous season's Festival.
5 of the last 6 winners had spent at least two seasons over hurdles.
4 of the last 5 winners were rated at least 146.
Jonjo O'Neill sent out his 5th winner of this race in 2008 but all five runners since have been unplaced.
1999 was the last time a winner had less than three previous starts over fences under rules.
Paul Nicholls has fired 16 blanks despite having plenty of fancied entries.
Analysis:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail so analysis will be mainly confined to those horses selected for backing purposes.
Southfield Royale: A decent Novice hurdler last season but has already surpassed those exploits in four starts over fences. He won two of those which included a 13 length victory in a Grade Two Novice at Doncaster . Being by Presenting he is bred to appreciate better ground and there's plenty of stamina in his pedigree. He was last seen on Boxing Day when he was a four length second to Tea For Two in a grade One Novice Chase and that continued his upward curve. Partnered with a top jockey in Nina Carberry and the cheekpieces he has won on his last two starts are retained. Satisfies plenty of the key trends and represents a talented young trainer whose horses are in very good form. Negatives include a lack of any form at Cheltenham and spent only one season over hurdles.
Measureofmydreams: It's been 17 years since a horse with less than two runs under their belt won this race but if anybody can defy that stat, then it's Willie Mullins. Measureofmydreams has already shown vastly superior form in two starts over fences than he did over hurdles. He has won both starts as a Chaser, the last a fortunate win in a Grade Two Novice after the favourite departed. That favourite was stablemate Black Hercules and he had Noble Endeavour five lengths behind him. He has yet to race under rules on anything faster than soft but his trainer is of the opinion that better ground will suit and he shapes like a thorough stayer. Has the potential for more and is partnered by Katie Walsh.
Selection: (outlay 3.5 pts)
Southfield Royale - 1.5 pts win @ 7/1. (Generally available)
Measureofmydreams - 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1. (Generally available at 11/1, 1/4 odds first 4)
