1.30 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
JLT Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs on the New Course.
The JLT Novices' Chase is a chase run over 21 furlongs and had its inaugural introduction at the 2011 meeting. It is open to horses five years old and upwards and was upgraded to Grade One status for the first time in 2014. With just five renewals to work from there aren't yet any strong patterns established. It lacks the prestige of the Arkle and the RSA but it appeals to Trainers who are reticent to target their horses at the more attritional RSA. Based on RPR ratings the winner of this race has produced a better performance than the RSA winner in each of the past five years and, for the past two years, a better performance than the Arkle winner. This has become a serious race in it's own right.
Trends:
This race is still in it's infancy but 4 out of the 5 winners have returned at 7/1 or shorter. They have come from the first four in the market, with 3 coming from the first two. Official Ratings have been a poor guide to finding the winner of this race. Plenty of experience over a long season is a positive but Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson are able to buck this trend. All 5 winners to date had run in the previous 54 days. Four of the five winners were Novice hurdlers the previous season and three began their careers on the flat. All 5 winners had run at the previous season's Festival and four of the five were last time out winners. None of the 5 winners had failed to complete in any of their starts over fences to date. 4 of the 5 winners had finished in the first three in a Grade One Chase. The Irish have dominated this race so far.
Trends Summary:
All 5 winners ran at the previous season's Festival, with the only two to have won the previous year doubling up.
4 of the 5 winners were from the first 4 in the market, all starting at 7/1 or shorter.
4 of the 5 winners were Novice hurdlers the previous season.
4 of the 5 winners were Irish trained.
The last 4 winners won last time out.
4 of the 5 winners had finished in the first 3 in a Grade One Chase, the other had won a Grade Two.
3 of the 5 winners began their careers on the flat.
None of the 5 winners were Officially Rated in the top two.
No winner had less than 3 Chase starts.
No winner had been off the track for more than 54 days.
Analysis:
Bristol De Mai is a bold jumping, front running horse who comes into this race with plenty of experience after six starts over fences. He has proved very effective in testing conditions but he was beaten less than two lengths on G/S ground in a Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree last season and he may not be as ground dependent as many believe. He doesn't have an obvious contender for the lead and could be dangerous if allowed a soft time of it up front. He doesn't have any track experience but he is an 'old hand' compared to the majority of these. Zabana was narrowly beaten in the Coral Cup last season but he has yet to match his hurdling form in two starts over fences and was well beaten by Outlander at Leopardstown last time out. Both starts over fences have come in soft/heavy ground, and it's possible he will be seen to better effect under drying conditions, but 4 of his 5 victories over hurdles came on ground from soft to heavy so he has plenty to prove. Black Hercules was well beaten in last season's Albert Bartlett but he has taken well to fences and should arguably be 3 from 3 over the bigger obstacles. Having won his first two, he looked in command of his third start in a Grade Two over three miles when coming down at the final flight at Navan last time out. He travels well through his races and, even though he has proved very effective on testing ground, he does have form on faster going. Garde La Victoire is 3 from 3 over fences and his defeat of Fox Norton here in November was franked when that horse was third in the Arkle here on Tuesday. He has won his three races over fences with the minimum of fuss and his track form is a big asset. L'ami Serge completely bombed out at Warwick last time out but he looked a highly promising Chaser in two races prior to that and he could easily bounce back. He has been well suited by testing ground and he has yet to prove he handles ground as fast as he is likely to encounter here. Three Musketeers could be seen to better effect back on faster ground after disappointing on heavy ground last time out and he is open to further improvement. Outlander was a Grade Two winner over hurdles and has improved with each of three starts over fences. He is 3 from 3 over the bigger obstacles and was the winner of a Grade One Novice race at Leopardstown last time out. Most of his form has been on softer ground but he doesn't have the action of a horse who would be inconvenienced by faster conditions. Jumps and stays well and is blessed with a good blend of speed and stamina.
Selections: (outlay - 3 pts)
Outlander - 2 pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James)
Three Musketeers - 1 pt win @ 12/1 (Generally available)
2.10 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016
Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: Three miles on the New Course.
The Pertemps Final is a Class A listed hurdle race run open to horses five years and upwards who have finished in the first six on at least one occasion in a Pertemps Hurdle Race (Series Qualifier) since the start of the current season. This is a good test of stamina and tough older horses are suited to this race more than most handicaps at this Festival.
Trends:
As expected, this test of stamina is suited to older horses with 7 of the last 10 winners aged 8 or older. Horses unexposed over the trip don't do as well as well as those who have proven their stamina. Horses that have aborted a chasing career do well in this race with 6 of the last 10 winners being such types. Last time out winners have accounted for 7 of the last 15 winners. The Irish don't target this race and it's not surprising that they have a poor record. French bred horses don't fare well and that includes some well touted favourites. No qualifier has produced more than 2 of the last 10 winners and the only race to have done so is the Betfair Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle over 23 furlongs at Haydock in November.
Trends Summary:
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older.
7 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
The last 5 winners ran off a mark of 138 or higher.
9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 23 furlongs.
6 of the last 10 winners had run over fences.
J.P McManus and Jonjo O'Neill have a good record with big priced runners.
Only 1 of the 28 horses aged 7 or younger to have started at shorter than 10/1 have won in the last decade.
Only two Irish trained runners have won this race this century.
All 64 French bred horses to have run this century have been beaten.
1988 was the last time there was a five year old winner.
Analysis:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail so analysis will be mainly confined to those horses selected for backing purposes.
Our Kaempfer: Has the look of a horse who has been specifically prepared for this race. Hasn't been since being brought down when going well at Haydock in November and that has protected his mark. He was beaten five lengths by Broxbourne over an extended three miles at Aintree on his penultimate start but the race wasn't run to suit. The pace of this race will be more suitable and a five pound pull in the weights should ensure he has a good chance of reversing that form. He is still unexposed over this sort of trip and drying conditions are in his favour. Has plenty of untapped potential and looks capable of improving beyond his current handicap mark. Noel Fehily, who has been board for all three of his victories, returns.
Rolling Maul: Didn't take to fences but returned to hurdles with a fair effort over 26 furlongs at Warwick last time out. Runs from a two pound lower mark here and he wouldn't be out of this if he returned to the form which saw him placed over C/D on good ground last April. He is more exposed than the majority of his opposition but the yard are in good form and the booking of a good five pound claimer takes the eye. Five pound above his highest winning mark but he is capable of getting competitive and his huge price is too tempting to resist.
Selections: (outlay - 4 pts)
Our Kaempfer - 1.5 pt e/w @ 10/1 (Generally available 1/4 odds first 5)
Rolling Maul - 0.5 pts e/w @ 50/1 (Generally available 1/4 odds first 5)
2.50 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
The Ryanair Chase is afforded Grade One status and is open to horses five years old and upwards. This race is seen by some for horses that are not good enough for the Gold Cup or Champion Chaser. It is usually run at a strong gallop and, more often than not, suits those that front run and stay the trip well.
Trends:
The first five renewals of this race saw only one second season Chaser prevail but the last three winners have all been such types. Stamina for the trip is an important asset, especially since the race was elevated to Grade One status. Last time out winners don't have a good record in this race. Horses that have run in the King George are often underestimated in the market and previous Cheltenham form is a positive. Up to now this race has been dominated by British trained horses with all 32 Irish trained horses being beaten. Horses sporting first time headgear have done well and those to the fore in the market have dominated. Key races include last season's renewal and the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November meeting here.
Trends Summary:
7 of the 8 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
5 of the 8 winners ran in that season's King George, 4 of them were unplaced and beaten at least 20 lengths.
7 of the 8 winners were Officially Rated 161+
The last 3 winners were second season Chasers.
5 of the 8 winners had earned their best RPR over three miles plus.
2 of the 5 runners in first time headgear have won.
5 of the 8 winners made all or most of the running.
Only 2 of the 8 winners had won their previous start.
Irish trained runners are 0 from 32.
Only 2 of the 8 winners have started at bigger than 6/1.
Analysis:
The complexion of this race changed completely on Tuesday when it was announced that Vautour was to be re-routed here after being expected to take up his entry in the Gold Cup. He is arguably the best Chaser in training and this was always seen as a penalty kick if he was to take up the option. The fact he is here is apparently down to some less than sparkling homework, and that has to be a concern. He wouldn't need to be 100% to win this, such is his talent, but it may be worth having a small interest in something that could make the frame at least at rewarding odds. Josses Hill is not for the faint hearted but he is a horse that possesses undeniable talent and he could run a big race if everything falls into place. Famously said to jump like a 'snooker table' by Dave Nevison, his fencing has been his Achilles Heel since he was sent Chasing. He took a heavy fall on his penultimate start at Sandown and, given his history, it wouldn't have been unexpected if he walked through his fences on his last start. However that wasn't the case. After jumping a bit deliberately early on, he gradually warmed to his task and was ultimately impressive in beating God's Own by eight lengths. That wouldn't be good enough to beat Vautour but any improvement would see him with a decent chance of making the frame at least. Drying ground is in his favour and his best effort over fences came here when he was third in last season's Arkle, despite mistakes. It's just as likely he will blunder his chances away but his Trainer has worked miracles with My Tent Or Yours and Sprinter Sacre this week and his 'genius' may rub off on Josses Hill.
Selection: (outlay - 1.5 pts)
Josses Hill - 0.75 pts e/w @ 28/1. (Generally available. 1/4 odds first 4)
3.30 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: Three miles on the New Course.
The World Hurdle is the least fashionable of the 4 Championship races and arguably the weakest. The field often lacks depth and multiple winners who outclass their opposition are common.
Trends:
The form of 'trial races' tends to hold up and it's rare that the World Hurdle winner is beaten in any of the 3 mile conditions hurdles races earlier in the season. They traditionally go steadily in this race so a winner needs to possess plenty of basic speed. Horses that win this usually prove their stamina by winning a recognised trial at around three miles. The Irish don't seem to take much interest in this race so their record is misleading. Top rated horses don't fare well and neither do youngsters or veterans. Headgear seems to have a negative effect and Albert Bartlett runners don't do well. Key trials include the Long Distance Hurdle over three miles at Newbury in November, the Long Walk Hurdle over an extended three miles at Ascot in December, the Cleeve Hurdle here in January and the Silver Cross Stayers' Hurdle at Aintree in April.
Trends Summary:
Winners this century were 15 from 19 in three mile Graded hurdles during the season.
8 of the 9 winners this century had won a Grade One or Grade Two hurdle over shorter than 21 furlongs.
4 of the 9 winners this century hadn't run beyond an extended 21 furlongs before winning for the first time.
14 of the 15 winners this century were from the first four in the betting.
Multiple winners are common.
There has only been one Irish winner since 1995.
All 25 horses aged 10 or older to have run this century have been beaten.
Albert Bartlett runners are 0 from 13, which includes 4 AB winners.
Only Big Bucks has won this century after an aborted Chase campaign.
All 56 runners that have worn headgear since 1993 have been beaten.
Analysis:
Thistlecrack won both the Long Distance at Newbury and the Long Walk at Ascot in great style. He also won the Cleeve on the bridle on this track and showed as a Novice last season that faster conditions hold no terrors when winning the Sefton at Aintree and finishing runner-up at Punchestown. Jumps, gallops and stays but the Sefton has only supplied one winner of this and none have come from the newer Punchestown race. Thistlecrack doesn't have the Graded hurdle win between 16 and 21 furlongs that World Hurdle winners so often have and there is a question whether he has the basic speed to win this. That may be grasping at straws because he travels like a horse who isn't devoid of pace and last season's winner, Cole Harden, is highly likely to ensure that this isn't run at a crawl. Both he and Alpha Des Obeaux will ensure that this is no walk in the park for Thistlecrack but both will probably have to produce a lifetime best if they are to overturn the favourite, and that assumes he won't improve further. Saphir Du Rheu has the talent to get involved but he was second to Cole Harden in this last season and he didn't appear to have any excuses. This is a race we are happy to sit out and enjoy.
Selection:
No bet.
4.10 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
Trends:
This has proved to a Bookmakers benefit over the years with no less than nine winners being priced 25/1+ since 1988. The only two successful favourites in almost three decades were both sent out from Pond House by the Pipe team. 24 of the last 28 winners had a prep run within six weeks of the race. This race has not been kind to those rated above 141. French breds perform well in this race as they tend to do in all Chases at the Festival up to 21 furlongs. This isn't a race the Irish target. David Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Venetia Williams have all done well in this race but Paul Nicholls hasn't, only 2 of his 24 runners have hit the frame. .
Trends Summary:
All the last 11 winners had won a Class 3 or higher
10 of the last 11 winners had won between 19 and 21 furlongs
10 of the last 11 winners had run between 3 and 16 times over fences
10 of the last 11 winners were rated 128 to 140.
8 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 42 days.
8 of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10-10yard.
Only one horse carrying more than 11 stone has finished in the first three for the past seven seasons.
Only 2 of the last 21 winners carried more than 11 stone.
26 of the last 28 winners were rated 141 or less.
French Breds have won 7 of the last 15 renewals.
14 of the last 15 winners started at double figure odds.
7 of the last 8 winners raced on or close to the pace.
19 of the last 24 winners had run at the Festival before.
There has been just one Irish trained winner in the history of this race.
Only one of the last 17 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup has not supplied the winner of this race for 21 years.
Only 4 of the last 28 winners didn't have a prep run within six weeks.
Analysis:
Stiletto: Ten pound higher than when winning last time out at Leicester but he looked well ahead of his mark there and he could still be ahead of the handicapper. He should be on a hat-trick after falling three out when travelling well on his penultimate start at Wincanton. Has yet to race on ground this quick but was effective on G/S ground when beating the now 139 rated Amore Alato at Catterick on his Chasing debut in December. Seems to be settling better now and looks the type that has been laid out for this race by his powerful yard. This race suits those that race up with the pace so he may need to be ridden a bit more prominently than usual but he has improved with each start over fences and it's highly likely that there is plenty of improvement to come. He was an expensive purchase and is bred to stay further so the stiffer new course and a generous gallop will suit.
Selection: (outlay 3 pts)
Stiletto - 1.5 pts e/w @ 10/1. (Betfred, Totesport, bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
4.50 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Registered As Dawn Run Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+):
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
This is a new addition to the Festival and it's not a race that particularly interests us. Novices have historically done well in the existing Mares event so why there was a need for this race is a bit baffling.
5.30 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-145)
Distance: Three miles two furlongs on the New Course.
A 0-145 handicap chase ridden by amateur riders. The classier types have come to the fore in recent seasons, with 5 of the last 7 winners carrying 11-6 or more. Jockeyship plays an important part in this race and in recent years it's been the non-claiming amateurs who have done best. The vast majority of win and place positions over the past five seasons have been filled by non-claiming jockeys. Eight and Nine Year olds have by far the best record and the last six year old to be successful was back in 1971. Donald McCain, David Pipe and Nicky Henderson do well in this race but Paul Nicholls has had only one place from 17 entries. This is not high on the list for Irish Trainers but they won it for the first time in 32 years two seasons ago. With some of the jockeys having a tendency to go off too fast, stamina becomes an important part in the latter stages
Trends Summary:
8 and 9 year olds have won 16 of the last 22 renewals from a 50% representation.
The last 11 winners were rated 124 to 142.
8 of the last 11 winners finished in the first three in either or both their last two starts.
8 of the last 10 winners had won a handicap chase
8 of the last 9 winners had run 11 times or less over fences.
Non-claiming amateurs have won 8 of the last 10 renewals and filled 24 of the last 28 win and place positions.
5 of the last 7 winners have carried 11-6+
Give preference to horses in the top half of the handicap
The last 16 winners had run over at least three miles last time out.
7 of the last 11 winners ran in a Cheltenham Handicap Chase earlier in the season.
Respect Donald McCain, David Pipe, Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson.
The Irish won for the first time in 32 yearsin 2014.
The last winner not to run in a handicap last time out was in 1985.
Paul Nicholls has had only one horse place from 17 entries.
Analysis:
A Good Skin: Makes his ninth start over fences and has only been out of the frame once in seven starts in handicap company, and that came in a Grade Three in heavy ground. His last win came over this C/D on good ground so trip, track and ground are in his favour. Went up three pounds for being beaten three and a half lengths by Silvergrove last time out and is five pounds better off with that rival today. Lightly raced for a seven year old and partnered by a jockey who finished fourth in this race last season. He is 2 from 8 over fences here and, although non-claimers have done better in this race, his three pound claim could prove useful. The yard are in good form and two of their three runners here this week have performed very well.
Selection: (outlay 2 pts)
A Good Skin - 1 pt e/w @ 25/1. (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
JLT Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs on the New Course.
The JLT Novices' Chase is a chase run over 21 furlongs and had its inaugural introduction at the 2011 meeting. It is open to horses five years old and upwards and was upgraded to Grade One status for the first time in 2014. With just five renewals to work from there aren't yet any strong patterns established. It lacks the prestige of the Arkle and the RSA but it appeals to Trainers who are reticent to target their horses at the more attritional RSA. Based on RPR ratings the winner of this race has produced a better performance than the RSA winner in each of the past five years and, for the past two years, a better performance than the Arkle winner. This has become a serious race in it's own right.
Trends:
This race is still in it's infancy but 4 out of the 5 winners have returned at 7/1 or shorter. They have come from the first four in the market, with 3 coming from the first two. Official Ratings have been a poor guide to finding the winner of this race. Plenty of experience over a long season is a positive but Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson are able to buck this trend. All 5 winners to date had run in the previous 54 days. Four of the five winners were Novice hurdlers the previous season and three began their careers on the flat. All 5 winners had run at the previous season's Festival and four of the five were last time out winners. None of the 5 winners had failed to complete in any of their starts over fences to date. 4 of the 5 winners had finished in the first three in a Grade One Chase. The Irish have dominated this race so far.
Trends Summary:
All 5 winners ran at the previous season's Festival, with the only two to have won the previous year doubling up.
4 of the 5 winners were from the first 4 in the market, all starting at 7/1 or shorter.
4 of the 5 winners were Novice hurdlers the previous season.
4 of the 5 winners were Irish trained.
The last 4 winners won last time out.
4 of the 5 winners had finished in the first 3 in a Grade One Chase, the other had won a Grade Two.
3 of the 5 winners began their careers on the flat.
None of the 5 winners were Officially Rated in the top two.
No winner had less than 3 Chase starts.
No winner had been off the track for more than 54 days.
Analysis:
Bristol De Mai is a bold jumping, front running horse who comes into this race with plenty of experience after six starts over fences. He has proved very effective in testing conditions but he was beaten less than two lengths on G/S ground in a Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree last season and he may not be as ground dependent as many believe. He doesn't have an obvious contender for the lead and could be dangerous if allowed a soft time of it up front. He doesn't have any track experience but he is an 'old hand' compared to the majority of these. Zabana was narrowly beaten in the Coral Cup last season but he has yet to match his hurdling form in two starts over fences and was well beaten by Outlander at Leopardstown last time out. Both starts over fences have come in soft/heavy ground, and it's possible he will be seen to better effect under drying conditions, but 4 of his 5 victories over hurdles came on ground from soft to heavy so he has plenty to prove. Black Hercules was well beaten in last season's Albert Bartlett but he has taken well to fences and should arguably be 3 from 3 over the bigger obstacles. Having won his first two, he looked in command of his third start in a Grade Two over three miles when coming down at the final flight at Navan last time out. He travels well through his races and, even though he has proved very effective on testing ground, he does have form on faster going. Garde La Victoire is 3 from 3 over fences and his defeat of Fox Norton here in November was franked when that horse was third in the Arkle here on Tuesday. He has won his three races over fences with the minimum of fuss and his track form is a big asset. L'ami Serge completely bombed out at Warwick last time out but he looked a highly promising Chaser in two races prior to that and he could easily bounce back. He has been well suited by testing ground and he has yet to prove he handles ground as fast as he is likely to encounter here. Three Musketeers could be seen to better effect back on faster ground after disappointing on heavy ground last time out and he is open to further improvement. Outlander was a Grade Two winner over hurdles and has improved with each of three starts over fences. He is 3 from 3 over the bigger obstacles and was the winner of a Grade One Novice race at Leopardstown last time out. Most of his form has been on softer ground but he doesn't have the action of a horse who would be inconvenienced by faster conditions. Jumps and stays well and is blessed with a good blend of speed and stamina.
Selections: (outlay - 3 pts)
Outlander - 2 pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James)
Three Musketeers - 1 pt win @ 12/1 (Generally available)
2.10 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016
Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: Three miles on the New Course.
The Pertemps Final is a Class A listed hurdle race run open to horses five years and upwards who have finished in the first six on at least one occasion in a Pertemps Hurdle Race (Series Qualifier) since the start of the current season. This is a good test of stamina and tough older horses are suited to this race more than most handicaps at this Festival.
Trends:
As expected, this test of stamina is suited to older horses with 7 of the last 10 winners aged 8 or older. Horses unexposed over the trip don't do as well as well as those who have proven their stamina. Horses that have aborted a chasing career do well in this race with 6 of the last 10 winners being such types. Last time out winners have accounted for 7 of the last 15 winners. The Irish don't target this race and it's not surprising that they have a poor record. French bred horses don't fare well and that includes some well touted favourites. No qualifier has produced more than 2 of the last 10 winners and the only race to have done so is the Betfair Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle over 23 furlongs at Haydock in November.
Trends Summary:
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older.
7 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
The last 5 winners ran off a mark of 138 or higher.
9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 23 furlongs.
6 of the last 10 winners had run over fences.
J.P McManus and Jonjo O'Neill have a good record with big priced runners.
Only 1 of the 28 horses aged 7 or younger to have started at shorter than 10/1 have won in the last decade.
Only two Irish trained runners have won this race this century.
All 64 French bred horses to have run this century have been beaten.
1988 was the last time there was a five year old winner.
Analysis:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail so analysis will be mainly confined to those horses selected for backing purposes.
Our Kaempfer: Has the look of a horse who has been specifically prepared for this race. Hasn't been since being brought down when going well at Haydock in November and that has protected his mark. He was beaten five lengths by Broxbourne over an extended three miles at Aintree on his penultimate start but the race wasn't run to suit. The pace of this race will be more suitable and a five pound pull in the weights should ensure he has a good chance of reversing that form. He is still unexposed over this sort of trip and drying conditions are in his favour. Has plenty of untapped potential and looks capable of improving beyond his current handicap mark. Noel Fehily, who has been board for all three of his victories, returns.
Rolling Maul: Didn't take to fences but returned to hurdles with a fair effort over 26 furlongs at Warwick last time out. Runs from a two pound lower mark here and he wouldn't be out of this if he returned to the form which saw him placed over C/D on good ground last April. He is more exposed than the majority of his opposition but the yard are in good form and the booking of a good five pound claimer takes the eye. Five pound above his highest winning mark but he is capable of getting competitive and his huge price is too tempting to resist.
Selections: (outlay - 4 pts)
Our Kaempfer - 1.5 pt e/w @ 10/1 (Generally available 1/4 odds first 5)
Rolling Maul - 0.5 pts e/w @ 50/1 (Generally available 1/4 odds first 5)
2.50 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
The Ryanair Chase is afforded Grade One status and is open to horses five years old and upwards. This race is seen by some for horses that are not good enough for the Gold Cup or Champion Chaser. It is usually run at a strong gallop and, more often than not, suits those that front run and stay the trip well.
Trends:
The first five renewals of this race saw only one second season Chaser prevail but the last three winners have all been such types. Stamina for the trip is an important asset, especially since the race was elevated to Grade One status. Last time out winners don't have a good record in this race. Horses that have run in the King George are often underestimated in the market and previous Cheltenham form is a positive. Up to now this race has been dominated by British trained horses with all 32 Irish trained horses being beaten. Horses sporting first time headgear have done well and those to the fore in the market have dominated. Key races include last season's renewal and the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November meeting here.
Trends Summary:
7 of the 8 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
5 of the 8 winners ran in that season's King George, 4 of them were unplaced and beaten at least 20 lengths.
7 of the 8 winners were Officially Rated 161+
The last 3 winners were second season Chasers.
5 of the 8 winners had earned their best RPR over three miles plus.
2 of the 5 runners in first time headgear have won.
5 of the 8 winners made all or most of the running.
Only 2 of the 8 winners had won their previous start.
Irish trained runners are 0 from 32.
Only 2 of the 8 winners have started at bigger than 6/1.
Analysis:
The complexion of this race changed completely on Tuesday when it was announced that Vautour was to be re-routed here after being expected to take up his entry in the Gold Cup. He is arguably the best Chaser in training and this was always seen as a penalty kick if he was to take up the option. The fact he is here is apparently down to some less than sparkling homework, and that has to be a concern. He wouldn't need to be 100% to win this, such is his talent, but it may be worth having a small interest in something that could make the frame at least at rewarding odds. Josses Hill is not for the faint hearted but he is a horse that possesses undeniable talent and he could run a big race if everything falls into place. Famously said to jump like a 'snooker table' by Dave Nevison, his fencing has been his Achilles Heel since he was sent Chasing. He took a heavy fall on his penultimate start at Sandown and, given his history, it wouldn't have been unexpected if he walked through his fences on his last start. However that wasn't the case. After jumping a bit deliberately early on, he gradually warmed to his task and was ultimately impressive in beating God's Own by eight lengths. That wouldn't be good enough to beat Vautour but any improvement would see him with a decent chance of making the frame at least. Drying ground is in his favour and his best effort over fences came here when he was third in last season's Arkle, despite mistakes. It's just as likely he will blunder his chances away but his Trainer has worked miracles with My Tent Or Yours and Sprinter Sacre this week and his 'genius' may rub off on Josses Hill.
Selection: (outlay - 1.5 pts)
Josses Hill - 0.75 pts e/w @ 28/1. (Generally available. 1/4 odds first 4)
3.30 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: Three miles on the New Course.
The World Hurdle is the least fashionable of the 4 Championship races and arguably the weakest. The field often lacks depth and multiple winners who outclass their opposition are common.
Trends:
The form of 'trial races' tends to hold up and it's rare that the World Hurdle winner is beaten in any of the 3 mile conditions hurdles races earlier in the season. They traditionally go steadily in this race so a winner needs to possess plenty of basic speed. Horses that win this usually prove their stamina by winning a recognised trial at around three miles. The Irish don't seem to take much interest in this race so their record is misleading. Top rated horses don't fare well and neither do youngsters or veterans. Headgear seems to have a negative effect and Albert Bartlett runners don't do well. Key trials include the Long Distance Hurdle over three miles at Newbury in November, the Long Walk Hurdle over an extended three miles at Ascot in December, the Cleeve Hurdle here in January and the Silver Cross Stayers' Hurdle at Aintree in April.
Trends Summary:
Winners this century were 15 from 19 in three mile Graded hurdles during the season.
8 of the 9 winners this century had won a Grade One or Grade Two hurdle over shorter than 21 furlongs.
4 of the 9 winners this century hadn't run beyond an extended 21 furlongs before winning for the first time.
14 of the 15 winners this century were from the first four in the betting.
Multiple winners are common.
There has only been one Irish winner since 1995.
All 25 horses aged 10 or older to have run this century have been beaten.
Albert Bartlett runners are 0 from 13, which includes 4 AB winners.
Only Big Bucks has won this century after an aborted Chase campaign.
All 56 runners that have worn headgear since 1993 have been beaten.
Analysis:
Thistlecrack won both the Long Distance at Newbury and the Long Walk at Ascot in great style. He also won the Cleeve on the bridle on this track and showed as a Novice last season that faster conditions hold no terrors when winning the Sefton at Aintree and finishing runner-up at Punchestown. Jumps, gallops and stays but the Sefton has only supplied one winner of this and none have come from the newer Punchestown race. Thistlecrack doesn't have the Graded hurdle win between 16 and 21 furlongs that World Hurdle winners so often have and there is a question whether he has the basic speed to win this. That may be grasping at straws because he travels like a horse who isn't devoid of pace and last season's winner, Cole Harden, is highly likely to ensure that this isn't run at a crawl. Both he and Alpha Des Obeaux will ensure that this is no walk in the park for Thistlecrack but both will probably have to produce a lifetime best if they are to overturn the favourite, and that assumes he won't improve further. Saphir Du Rheu has the talent to get involved but he was second to Cole Harden in this last season and he didn't appear to have any excuses. This is a race we are happy to sit out and enjoy.
Selection:
No bet.
4.10 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
Trends:
This has proved to a Bookmakers benefit over the years with no less than nine winners being priced 25/1+ since 1988. The only two successful favourites in almost three decades were both sent out from Pond House by the Pipe team. 24 of the last 28 winners had a prep run within six weeks of the race. This race has not been kind to those rated above 141. French breds perform well in this race as they tend to do in all Chases at the Festival up to 21 furlongs. This isn't a race the Irish target. David Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Venetia Williams have all done well in this race but Paul Nicholls hasn't, only 2 of his 24 runners have hit the frame. .
Trends Summary:
All the last 11 winners had won a Class 3 or higher
10 of the last 11 winners had won between 19 and 21 furlongs
10 of the last 11 winners had run between 3 and 16 times over fences
10 of the last 11 winners were rated 128 to 140.
8 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 42 days.
8 of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10-10yard.
Only one horse carrying more than 11 stone has finished in the first three for the past seven seasons.
Only 2 of the last 21 winners carried more than 11 stone.
26 of the last 28 winners were rated 141 or less.
French Breds have won 7 of the last 15 renewals.
14 of the last 15 winners started at double figure odds.
7 of the last 8 winners raced on or close to the pace.
19 of the last 24 winners had run at the Festival before.
There has been just one Irish trained winner in the history of this race.
Only one of the last 17 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup has not supplied the winner of this race for 21 years.
Only 4 of the last 28 winners didn't have a prep run within six weeks.
Analysis:
Stiletto: Ten pound higher than when winning last time out at Leicester but he looked well ahead of his mark there and he could still be ahead of the handicapper. He should be on a hat-trick after falling three out when travelling well on his penultimate start at Wincanton. Has yet to race on ground this quick but was effective on G/S ground when beating the now 139 rated Amore Alato at Catterick on his Chasing debut in December. Seems to be settling better now and looks the type that has been laid out for this race by his powerful yard. This race suits those that race up with the pace so he may need to be ridden a bit more prominently than usual but he has improved with each start over fences and it's highly likely that there is plenty of improvement to come. He was an expensive purchase and is bred to stay further so the stiffer new course and a generous gallop will suit.
Selection: (outlay 3 pts)
Stiletto - 1.5 pts e/w @ 10/1. (Betfred, Totesport, bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
4.50 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Registered As Dawn Run Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+):
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
This is a new addition to the Festival and it's not a race that particularly interests us. Novices have historically done well in the existing Mares event so why there was a need for this race is a bit baffling.
5.30 - Cheltenham - Thursday 17th March 2016.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-145)
Distance: Three miles two furlongs on the New Course.
A 0-145 handicap chase ridden by amateur riders. The classier types have come to the fore in recent seasons, with 5 of the last 7 winners carrying 11-6 or more. Jockeyship plays an important part in this race and in recent years it's been the non-claiming amateurs who have done best. The vast majority of win and place positions over the past five seasons have been filled by non-claiming jockeys. Eight and Nine Year olds have by far the best record and the last six year old to be successful was back in 1971. Donald McCain, David Pipe and Nicky Henderson do well in this race but Paul Nicholls has had only one place from 17 entries. This is not high on the list for Irish Trainers but they won it for the first time in 32 years two seasons ago. With some of the jockeys having a tendency to go off too fast, stamina becomes an important part in the latter stages
Trends Summary:
8 and 9 year olds have won 16 of the last 22 renewals from a 50% representation.
The last 11 winners were rated 124 to 142.
8 of the last 11 winners finished in the first three in either or both their last two starts.
8 of the last 10 winners had won a handicap chase
8 of the last 9 winners had run 11 times or less over fences.
Non-claiming amateurs have won 8 of the last 10 renewals and filled 24 of the last 28 win and place positions.
5 of the last 7 winners have carried 11-6+
Give preference to horses in the top half of the handicap
The last 16 winners had run over at least three miles last time out.
7 of the last 11 winners ran in a Cheltenham Handicap Chase earlier in the season.
Respect Donald McCain, David Pipe, Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson.
The Irish won for the first time in 32 yearsin 2014.
The last winner not to run in a handicap last time out was in 1985.
Paul Nicholls has had only one horse place from 17 entries.
Analysis:
A Good Skin: Makes his ninth start over fences and has only been out of the frame once in seven starts in handicap company, and that came in a Grade Three in heavy ground. His last win came over this C/D on good ground so trip, track and ground are in his favour. Went up three pounds for being beaten three and a half lengths by Silvergrove last time out and is five pounds better off with that rival today. Lightly raced for a seven year old and partnered by a jockey who finished fourth in this race last season. He is 2 from 8 over fences here and, although non-claimers have done better in this race, his three pound claim could prove useful. The yard are in good form and two of their three runners here this week have performed very well.
Selection: (outlay 2 pts)
A Good Skin - 1 pt e/w @ 25/1. (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
