Cheltenham Day 4

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
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We all make our own decisions but for what it's worth I have been waiting some time for two of the horses running in the supporting programme tomorrow. Two totally different profiles but both were ante post bets at the earliest time I knew they would be running.

Albert Barlett Hurdle 2.40-CAPE TRIBULATION
I think I had this one in the FF weekly comp when he won LTO in the second of the 2 hurdle races he has run. He was a decent bumper horse and looked pretty special first time out. However his run at Doncaster was truly awesome. In a large and competitive field he sat just behind the leaders moving very easily, then with barely a flick of the reins he changed gear and was clear. OK maybe not a Dancing Brave acceleration but astounding for a horse racing for only the second time over hurdles. Instantly I thought this is really some horse and I will follow it from now on in. I can't wait till he goes over the fences and may even back him now for the 2010 RSA Chase

The RP comment was
" That said it still saw a highly-impressive performance from the fast-improving CAPE TRIBULATION, who relished the step up to this longer distance. Given a break after beating a fair yardstick on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter in November, he did things easily on this step up in class and looks a horse of serious potential."

Earlier this week I put more on him when horses like MDH which were entered in this race ran and since then he has shrunk somewhat in the betting. Still I will be playing up my meeting profits on him tomorrow.
Only slight concern is that like most of his opponents he has excelled on soft and G/S so far but my reading is that his class is such that he will handle the likely ground tomorrow. 7/2


Christies Foxhunter Chase-BORDER FUSION
Forget the basic form this is a serious animal in its class. It's main problem is that it performs best on good ground and tomorrow is the first big race where he has qualified and the ground is suitable(ish).A talented rogue as befits a Scallywag descendent his racing style is to sit way behind the field and then come with an unrelenting run 3/4 of the way round. He was never likely to win LTO as the going was totally against him. He won 2/3 of his previous runs under rules and would have been 3/3 if he had not been hampered when he came second.
Generally jumps efficiently but can attempt to show off. I can't comment on the pilot as I don't have access to the subscription PtP sites. However with the help of fellow forum members it seems the horse will not be disadvantaged.
The owners have persistently turned away some valuable offers from leading owners and he is certainly worth his place in the race. There is some impressive competition in the field including several several well known rules horses and Christy Beamish, the PtPer that won well for me at Aintree (and is way too long in the betting imo.)

The above all leads me to suggest BF might be worth an ew interest as he has the potential to be the surprise package on a good day. In addition because he will come from way off the pace you can keep an interest up to the closing stages and hopefully to the line. 28/1 on Betfair. Not a mortgage job but if you have already won on Cape Tribulation!!!!
 
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Cape Tribulation was shortlisted by four of the six panellists (and one of only 4 horses mentioned at all for the race) at the preview I attended. He's certainly interesting!
 
Not sure that many winners have been coming from off the pace all week though, and if he's going to sit back there has to be a chance he'll encounter trouble with fallers, (Border Fusion that is) or simply leave himself too much to do. Having said that, there were occasional hints in yesterdays times to suggest that the ground will be riding 'good' today so with a firmer surface it might be easier to come from a bit further back
 
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Slight concern about the faster ground, but Aachen in the County hurdle, with Skybet paying 6 places looks a great bet to me at 8/1.
 
Did you come to any conclusions about any race yourself Headstrong, or are you going to rely on what you've been told?
 
Aachen's having his 4th run in 38 days, and where as he was re-routed from the Coral Cup I'd be a wee bit concerned that he hasn't faced the urly burly of a big gifeld handicap before run at a frantic pace. In fact, I'd be concerned he hasn't faced a big field. Sky Hall looks liek he could well be under the radar, and a line through Solwhit which now involves Ninetieth Minute looks appealing. He fell LTO but was flagged up as tarvelling as strongly as anything in a fast handicap Ascot won by Sentry Duty
 
davidjohnson said:
Did you come to any conclusions about any race yourself Headstrong, or are you going to rely on what you've been told?
Click to expand...


:whistle: I have not backed Cape T, fwiw I think the ground has gone against him.
Does that answer your question?
 
Cedrus Libani in the 2.05 interests me at a big price today. Not taken to fences but good hurdles form and worth a farthing ew for me. (which is about all I have left in the tank now).

Cape Tribulation's trainer says he will not use the ground as an excuse and he is my serious bet of the day. He had the fav beat LTO imho and had any amount in hand at the finish.
 
1.30 Walkon is a penalty kick each way imo. Would love Ebadiyan to win, to see the winners enclosure afterwards. Brady could get banned for life from Prestubry Park!!

2.40 I like Browns Baily at a nice price.

3.20 Would LOVE to see Kauto Star defy the stats and his critics. Not confident though.

4.40 Love Mamlook and hopefully can repay the yard for some close calls in the past.

5.15 Oh Crick looks good at the weights but Poquelin looks like he has the class to come out on top.
 
While the heart says Ebadiyan, the heads says Walkon. I have had a saver on Ebadiyan all the same, and will probably take more satisfaction out of seeing him win. My cousin is over there and has a Monaghan Jersey with him. If Ebadiyan wins then make no mistake, he WILL be in the winners enclosure!!

I think Daves Dream is nearly the bet of the day today, dont think he had much of a race the last day, and given the form the stable is in, i think it will take all the beating. Barry is riding extremely well too.(After a few years where he looked like he didnt care)

The Albert Bartlett looks impossible i have to say, have no strong opinion on it.

Im with Sunybay on the Gold Cup, have backed Neptunes Antepost, bit worried by the drying ground to be fair, will possibly help Kuato stay better. But im happy enough still.

The Hunter Chase is a no bet race for me, i have picked Turthen as an outside chance.

I really liked the way Big Earred Fran ran last time out, i think he will go close again today. I am tempted to back our old friend Hangover, but i cant bring myself to do it!!

Finally in the last, i think Poquelin is one of the better bets of the day.
 
1.30 Walkon saver on Ebadiyan
2.05 Aachen and Raise your Heart
2.40 Cape Tribulation
3.20 Kauto Star & Albertas Run e/w
4.00 Cappa Bleu and Royal Auclair
4.40 Mamlook
5.15 Poquelin

Had a great day yesterday lots of Guinness and champers! Bit of a sore head today so had a couple of quid on Hangover in the 4.40

Had two winners Imperial Commander and Character Building

Good Luck everyone today! :)
 
Wasn't quite as open as usual about it's chances in his RP column. Seems they were confident he'd win.
 
Yes, his comment that he'd been running on the wrong ground all winter, and wasn't suited by the 19F's at Ascot said it all really :whistle:
 
Next should establish the quality (and depth) of the Irish staying novice hurdlers. Personally I doubt any of them are quick enough to win on this ground.
 
In the FF comp I needed to have some longshots to try and beat the leader. Picked out Stradbrook and therefore had silly £10ew. A lay in running together with the place money produced an extremely lucky pickup.
 
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