2013 Cheltenham Festival – Selected races four days
Good luck everyone. Maybe this helps. Mainly on Sprinter Sacre at slight odds against, Simonsig at 7/2 and Long Run at 10/1 and 8/1. These three will decide my week.
As for the rest.
Blog here: http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/
DAY 1 Tuesday March 12, 2013
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning nine of the past 11 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 11 renewals. The Irish tend to do well in this. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had won last time out. If My Tent Or Yours can’t win Un Atout probably will, with the likes of Puffin Billy, Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets the best of the rest.
Selections:
1) My Tent Or Yours 2) Un Atout 3) Puffin Billy 4) Champagne Fever e.w. 5) Dodging Bullets
Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
6yos and 7yos do well (winning seven of the past 11 renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over seven in the past 21 renewals. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide. Four actual favourites (Remittance Man, Klairon Davis, Azertyuiop and Sprinter Sacre) have won in the past 21 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers (above at least 140) and French-breds do well.
Sprinter Sacre (recommended at 10/1 against for this last year) obliged at odds-on. Simonsig looks up to standard this time with Overturn (despite age) or possibly Arvika Ligeonniere giving him most to do.
Selections:
1) Simonsig 2) Overturn 3) Arvika Ligeonniere
Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older (one of the past 11 winners was 9). Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21 renewals. The ill-fated Darlan was the choice this year. In his absence it is difficult to pick holes in Hurricane Fly although on the day Binocular can be expected to run to a similar standard, but age is against both. Last year’s winner Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong, although the suspicion was that Darlan had his measure before coming to grief last time. The 6yos Zarkandar and Grandouet could improve sufficiently to challenge.
Selections:
1) Rock On Ruby 2) Binocular (e.w.) 3) Hurricane Fly 4) Zarkandar
DAY 2 Wednesday March 13, 2013
John Oaksey NH Chase 4m
Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos.
Selections:
1) Rival D’Estruval 2) Back In Focus/Boston Bob (Mullins)
Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f
A good race for those prominent in the betting (the 2/1 favourite Simonsig obliged last year). 5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 21 winners. Likely to be out of the New One and Pont Alexandre with preference for the latter, although Taquin Du Seuil and Puffin Billy are not out of it.
Selections:
1) Pont Alexandre 2) The New One 3) Puffin Billy 4) Taquin Du Seuil
Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f
7 and 8yos are best for this (winning 10 of the past 11). Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types. Dynaste or Boston Bob look to fit the bill, with the 5yo Unioniste to fill the frame (one 5yo in past 11 renewals).
Selections:
1) Dynaste 2) Boston Bob
Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form (7 of the past 11 winners started at odds no bigger than 5/1, although two of the past three winners have landed odds of 10/1 and Newmill was 16/1 in 2006). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. Arkle winners have a high strike rate of finishing in the first two in this race the following year and last year’s winner was runner-up in the Arkle the year before. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past 20 renewals. Last year’s Arkle winner Sprinter Sacre has an inevitable look about him this time although he would be the first horse to win the Arkle, Tingle Creek and Champion Chase in succession. Even if one is reluctant to take the long odds-on about him he is impossibly talented should not be opposed.
1) Sprinter Sacre
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo) 2m 110y
Selections:
1) Saphir Du Rheu
Champion Bumper 2m ½f
5yos have advantage, although exceptional 4yos – Cue Card, beat two 5yos in this – can win. Irish-trained horses specialise in this, particularly Mullins.
Selections:
1) Golantilla
DAY 3 Thursday March 14, 2013
Jewson Novice Chase Listed 2m 4f
Selections:
1) Captain Conan 2) Aupcharlie 3) Module
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Listed 3m
Unlike several high profile handicaps do not be put off those carrying bigger weights.
Selections:
1) Shutthefrontdoor 2) Sam Winner 3) Captain Sunshine
Ryanair Chase Grade 2 2m 5f
Previous Cheltenham winners win this. Older horses do fine. Concentrate on first handful in betting. Last year’s winner (7/2 fav), Riverside Theatre, is again prominent in the betting. Very competitive race with Cue Card, Sizing Europe, First Lieutenant and possibly Finian’s Rainbow in contention.
Selections:
1) Cue Card 2) First Lieutenant 3) Sizing Europe 4) Riverside Theatre
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 3m
Steer clear of 5yos (no 5yo has won this although decent ones have tried) and those aged in double figures. 6, 7, 8 and 9yos are all capable of winning. The Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles are key guides. Oppose those who race prominently. No Big Bucks this time leaves the race looking wide open. Oscar Whisky looks classy, but is a 2½ mile specialist. He could run in the Champion Hurdle, but his real target may well be Aintree again at his optimum trip. Monksland (out) and Reve De Sivola look to set the standard to beat.
Selections:
1) Reve De Sivola 2) Oscar Whisky 3) So Young
DAY 4 Friday March 15, 2013
Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f (4yos)
I try to avoid having a bet in the Triumph, although in two of the past three years my selections in Soldatino and Zarkandar have obliged at generous ante-post odds. I did not consider last year’s 33/1 winner Countrywide Flame however.
Selections:
1) Rolling Star 2) Far West 3) Our Conor
VOB County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 2m 1f
Cotton Mill is the each-way selection.
Selections:
1) Cotton Mill (e.w.)
AB Novice Hurdle 3m
At Fishers Cross is talented but may not line up. Ballycasey and Champagne Fever could do well, but Coneygree may be the each-way bet.
Selections:
1) At Fishers Cross 2) Ballycasey 3) Coneygree e.w. 4) Champagne Fever
Gold Cup Grade 1 3m 2½f
Favourites have won six of the past 10 renewals and the biggest priced of the other four was 8/1 (last year). 7, 8 and 9yos do the best by far in this. Long Run shouldn’t be dismissed lightly (he’s still only 8). However, the up-and-coming brigade look quite formidable with Bobs Worth (Long Run’s stablemate), Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti vying for favouritism. Long Run looks a solid each-way bet.
Selections:
1) Long Run e.w. 2) Bobs Worth 3) Silviniaco Conti 4) Sir Des Champs
5) Cape Tribulation/ First Lieutenant/Captain Chris
c Steve Miller 2013
Good luck everyone. Maybe this helps. Mainly on Sprinter Sacre at slight odds against, Simonsig at 7/2 and Long Run at 10/1 and 8/1. These three will decide my week.
As for the rest.
Blog here: http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/
DAY 1 Tuesday March 12, 2013
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning nine of the past 11 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 11 renewals. The Irish tend to do well in this. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had won last time out. If My Tent Or Yours can’t win Un Atout probably will, with the likes of Puffin Billy, Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets the best of the rest.
Selections:
1) My Tent Or Yours 2) Un Atout 3) Puffin Billy 4) Champagne Fever e.w. 5) Dodging Bullets
Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
6yos and 7yos do well (winning seven of the past 11 renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over seven in the past 21 renewals. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide. Four actual favourites (Remittance Man, Klairon Davis, Azertyuiop and Sprinter Sacre) have won in the past 21 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers (above at least 140) and French-breds do well.
Sprinter Sacre (recommended at 10/1 against for this last year) obliged at odds-on. Simonsig looks up to standard this time with Overturn (despite age) or possibly Arvika Ligeonniere giving him most to do.
Selections:
1) Simonsig 2) Overturn 3) Arvika Ligeonniere
Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older (one of the past 11 winners was 9). Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21 renewals. The ill-fated Darlan was the choice this year. In his absence it is difficult to pick holes in Hurricane Fly although on the day Binocular can be expected to run to a similar standard, but age is against both. Last year’s winner Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong, although the suspicion was that Darlan had his measure before coming to grief last time. The 6yos Zarkandar and Grandouet could improve sufficiently to challenge.
Selections:
1) Rock On Ruby 2) Binocular (e.w.) 3) Hurricane Fly 4) Zarkandar
DAY 2 Wednesday March 13, 2013
John Oaksey NH Chase 4m
Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos.
Selections:
1) Rival D’Estruval 2) Back In Focus/Boston Bob (Mullins)
Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f
A good race for those prominent in the betting (the 2/1 favourite Simonsig obliged last year). 5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 21 winners. Likely to be out of the New One and Pont Alexandre with preference for the latter, although Taquin Du Seuil and Puffin Billy are not out of it.
Selections:
1) Pont Alexandre 2) The New One 3) Puffin Billy 4) Taquin Du Seuil
Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f
7 and 8yos are best for this (winning 10 of the past 11). Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types. Dynaste or Boston Bob look to fit the bill, with the 5yo Unioniste to fill the frame (one 5yo in past 11 renewals).
Selections:
1) Dynaste 2) Boston Bob
Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form (7 of the past 11 winners started at odds no bigger than 5/1, although two of the past three winners have landed odds of 10/1 and Newmill was 16/1 in 2006). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. Arkle winners have a high strike rate of finishing in the first two in this race the following year and last year’s winner was runner-up in the Arkle the year before. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past 20 renewals. Last year’s Arkle winner Sprinter Sacre has an inevitable look about him this time although he would be the first horse to win the Arkle, Tingle Creek and Champion Chase in succession. Even if one is reluctant to take the long odds-on about him he is impossibly talented should not be opposed.
1) Sprinter Sacre
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo) 2m 110y
Selections:
1) Saphir Du Rheu
Champion Bumper 2m ½f
5yos have advantage, although exceptional 4yos – Cue Card, beat two 5yos in this – can win. Irish-trained horses specialise in this, particularly Mullins.
Selections:
1) Golantilla
DAY 3 Thursday March 14, 2013
Jewson Novice Chase Listed 2m 4f
Selections:
1) Captain Conan 2) Aupcharlie 3) Module
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Listed 3m
Unlike several high profile handicaps do not be put off those carrying bigger weights.
Selections:
1) Shutthefrontdoor 2) Sam Winner 3) Captain Sunshine
Ryanair Chase Grade 2 2m 5f
Previous Cheltenham winners win this. Older horses do fine. Concentrate on first handful in betting. Last year’s winner (7/2 fav), Riverside Theatre, is again prominent in the betting. Very competitive race with Cue Card, Sizing Europe, First Lieutenant and possibly Finian’s Rainbow in contention.
Selections:
1) Cue Card 2) First Lieutenant 3) Sizing Europe 4) Riverside Theatre
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 3m
Steer clear of 5yos (no 5yo has won this although decent ones have tried) and those aged in double figures. 6, 7, 8 and 9yos are all capable of winning. The Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles are key guides. Oppose those who race prominently. No Big Bucks this time leaves the race looking wide open. Oscar Whisky looks classy, but is a 2½ mile specialist. He could run in the Champion Hurdle, but his real target may well be Aintree again at his optimum trip. Monksland (out) and Reve De Sivola look to set the standard to beat.
Selections:
1) Reve De Sivola 2) Oscar Whisky 3) So Young
DAY 4 Friday March 15, 2013
Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f (4yos)
I try to avoid having a bet in the Triumph, although in two of the past three years my selections in Soldatino and Zarkandar have obliged at generous ante-post odds. I did not consider last year’s 33/1 winner Countrywide Flame however.
Selections:
1) Rolling Star 2) Far West 3) Our Conor
VOB County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 2m 1f
Cotton Mill is the each-way selection.
Selections:
1) Cotton Mill (e.w.)
AB Novice Hurdle 3m
At Fishers Cross is talented but may not line up. Ballycasey and Champagne Fever could do well, but Coneygree may be the each-way bet.
Selections:
1) At Fishers Cross 2) Ballycasey 3) Coneygree e.w. 4) Champagne Fever
Gold Cup Grade 1 3m 2½f
Favourites have won six of the past 10 renewals and the biggest priced of the other four was 8/1 (last year). 7, 8 and 9yos do the best by far in this. Long Run shouldn’t be dismissed lightly (he’s still only 8). However, the up-and-coming brigade look quite formidable with Bobs Worth (Long Run’s stablemate), Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti vying for favouritism. Long Run looks a solid each-way bet.
Selections:
1) Long Run e.w. 2) Bobs Worth 3) Silviniaco Conti 4) Sir Des Champs
5) Cape Tribulation/ First Lieutenant/Captain Chris
c Steve Miller 2013
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