Cheltenham Sectionals

EC1

EC1

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I'll just start with posting from todays two hurdle races. Times start from when they cross the first hurdle. These are the winners times, not leader..obviously in CF's case is same thing:)

Champagne Fever

3rd---4th---5th----6th----7th----8th-----Finish
87.1/111.2/132.8/170.5/187.8/213.1/226.46

Hurricane Fly

3rd---4th---5th----6th----7th----8th-----Finish
86.2/110.2/131.0/168.0/185.6/212.8/228.66
 
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EC1 said:
I'll just start with posting from todays two hurdle races. Times start from when they cross the first hurdle. These are the winners times, not leader..obviously in CF's case is same thing:)

Champagne Fever

3rd---4th---5th----6th----7th----8th-----Finish
87.1/111.2/132.8/170.5/187.8/213.1/226.46

Hurricane Fly

3rd---4th---5th----6th----7th----8th-----Finish
86.2/110.2/131.0/168.0/185.6/212.8/228.66
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So HF went faster throughout until the final section, yet he was about ten lengths off the pace and struggling at halfway. How friggin fast must the leaders have gone?:blink:
 
Desert Orchid said:
So HF went faster throughout until the final section, yet he was about ten lengths off the pace and struggling at halfway. How friggin fast must the leaders have gone?:blink:
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the leaders are usually going a similar speed..don't forget these are timed from when each horse passes over the first hurdle..so if the leader is going 35mph..the others have to go that speed at least to keep up..or they would just get further behind

last year for instance Rock On Ruby got to third hurdle in 85.6..HF in 85.85...so from hurdle one to 3 HF lost just .25 seconds on him..but they were going very similar mph's..but HF was just doing it a few lengths behind him

when Intersky went off fast in RB's year RB went as fast as IF did early on.. but did it 10+ lengths behind him..as did most of the field..all that happens is the whole field gets tired from being dragged at that pace and those with stamina keep going late on to win..
 
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Yes, the point arrives where they are all travelling at the same speed but it takes energy to open the gap in the first place. That's why front runners often end up tiring. They've overdone it at some point.

I've just watched the races again. I think the Supreme was a very hot race and it may be that MTOY will be better on a flatter track. He ran pretty much as Ted Walsh forecast this morning.

I think CF ran a blinder for a 5yo, ROR ran probably the same race as last year, maybe a touch better. I think Grandouet would have given HF plenty to think about. I reckon it would have been a pulsating finish. Hopefully future events will end the arguments.
 
Really interesting stuff EC. You can clearly see where HF made up his ground but Fehily was obviously trying to stretch them at the same time. Hell of an effort from the Fly but Champagne Fever's time is very quick relative and I suspect that Supreme was as good as it looked beforehand despite the hotspot being beaten. Next years Champion could well have been in that three.
 
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We wont know that until they step forward into the big time as these times between the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle almost always turn out to be misleading.

Not saying for one minute CF is not a very good horse but just because he did a faster time than Hurricane Fly doesn't mean he'll be good enough to run in a champion hurdle.
Personally I think he he could be but that's got nothing to do with the time he did.

Look back at some of times and you will soon discover those that have won the Supreme in faster times either don't win Champion hurdles don't run in them or end up going chasing like Al ferof last year because their trainer knows they are not good enough to compete in that shphere. Captain Cee Bee, Go Native, Ebaziyan (under 1/2 second slower) and even Hors La Loi III was much faster than Istabraq but we all know who came out of that one best.

Obviously pace has a lot to do with times but the main reason you get these unreal times between these two particular races is one horse is running on virgin ground the next lot are not.

It's like when you plough a field, the earth is soft and lose but depending on how it reacts to air getting to it, temperature, wind, sunshine, whatever! the texture changes in no time what so ever the long the time span the more the change.

I think sectionals give useful information to trainers and punters to work out why so and so was beaten.....they went too slow they went too fast for him whatever but as far as using overall times to judge one horse against another in a situation like this is full of pitfalls.

There are just too many variables to consider and you'd need to be a rocket Scientist to try and include them and work out what the real affect of them is/was.

In short if CF had to attempt to run exactly the same race in the same time after the ground had been cut up and beat Hurricane fly in the process would he have been able to do so.........I sincerely doubt it.

The Arkle is the first chase of the day the average times for it are are often better than the average times for the Champion Hurdle and they are never worse than the other steeplechase/s run on the day.

It is these sort of factors that make times for races hard to trust. You obviously can get good comparison same day same course same going but there are too many other factors than can mislead you when racing on turf.

I've always thought the Champion Hurdle should be the first hurdle race of the day and they should be the ones running on the virgin ground. It's not like we haven't heard jockey making excuses by stating the ground had been cut up badly in the previous race' I'd have thought the organizers would have wanted very as perfect as possible for such an important race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've just watched the races again. I think the Supreme was a very hot race and it may be that MTOY will be better on a flatter track. He ran pretty much as Ted Walsh forecast this morning.
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Aye, you'd have to wonder where Ted Walsh gets his knowledge from, now wouldn't ya?:)
 
chroniclandlord said:
I'd expect Champagne Fever to be chasing next season.
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So would I.

Tanlic, can't you make your point a little more succinctly?! I couldn't be bothered to read your whole post as I have bleary eyes this morning. From what I did read though I know times aren't everything but relative to the Champion it was still quick and if anything Jezki probably comes out with as much credit. I expect JP to run both in the top 2m races either side of the Irish Sea and to be very competitive.
 
the comparison of overall times between races can mislead..but here is an interesting way of comparing both races using the split times

these are the miles per hour figures for both winners between each hurdle..up to the last hurdle..i've added the 2nd hurdle time in here to give more data

Champagne Fever
H1-H2 = 33.59
H2-H3 = 28.37
H3-H4 = 32.56
H4-H5 = 30.39
H5-H6 = 31.95
H6-H7 = 36.40
H7-H8 = 31.78

Average Speed = 32.15mph

Hurricane Fly

H1-H2 = 32.85
H2-H3 = 29.62
H3-H4 = 32.58
H4-H5 = 31.71
H5-H6 = 32.46
H6-H7 = 35.93
H7-H8 = 29.57

Average Speed = 32.10mph

So up to the last hurdle CF has run very fractionally faster using the averages of each hurdle...so it should be fair to expect that CF would be slower from the last to the line...but CF ran from the last 2.54 seconds faster

yes.. as Tanlic says the ground was more chewed..but was it enough to create that big a difference from the last?

Seems to me that the 3 in the Supreme are exceptional horses looking at those splits
 
Claisse's explanation that the faster time in the Supreme was down to the exposed turf turning softer through the afternoon could be acceptable, although I don't fully go along with that view.

However, I'm baffled that he has changed the going report from Soft (g/s in places) to G/S (soft in places).

If is theory is correct, is the ground not going to deteriate even further if the covers have been back on ?
 
to remove yesterdays comparison and replace it with another one to try and see why the CH was slower than the Supreme... i'll compare HF to when Sublimity won on very similar ground and in a race run overly fast.

A few people i have read are suggesting a pace collapse in the CH which would explain the slow time from the 2nd last to the line..i can't use the 2nd hurdle or last hurdle in this comparison as they moved it after after 2009

Hurricane Fly

H1-H3 = 31.23
H3-H4 = 32.58
H4-H5 = 31.71
H5-H6 = 32.46
H6-H7 = 35.93

Average Speed to 2nd last = 32.78 mph

Sublimity

H1-H3 = 31.76
H3-H4 = 31.97
H4-H5 = 31.29
H5-H6 = 33.30
H6-H7 = 33.33

Average Speed = 32.33 mph

Sublimity has run on average a little slower than HF up to the 7th hurdle so it would be fair to expect HF to be slower from the 2nd last to the line.

Sublimity 7th Hurdle to Line = 39.51 seconds
Hurricane Fly 7th Hurdle to Line = 42.11 seconds

So after Sublimity has gone a little slower up to the 7th than HF.. he ran 2.6 seconds faster than HF to the line.....that seems a little more than you would have expected

Was it a pace collapse yesterday?..Sublimity was in a similar scenario and didn't stop that quickly

its a ponderer

just to add..it may look a big effort for HF to run 35+ between the 6 & 7th hurdle but that distance is 926ft..the shortest distance between two hurdles on the course bar the new postion of the last to finish..Sublimity ran a lot further faster than HF between the 1st and 3rd which is about 3946 ft..hopefully the averages build this in a little

i'm undecided on what to think to be honest.
 
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there is another interesting comparison with Rooster Booster..also similar ground..but RB ran a lot faster earlier

i'll get me brekky and see what you think of that one
 
Isn't any kind of analysis which relies on a very precise measurement (in this case time) diluted somewhat, when you start complementing it with imprecise measurements such as 'similar ground', or even 'very similar ground'.

Given we're talking fractions of seconds, surely even subtle variations in ground conditions will influence the overall time, and therefore the analysis?
 
Aragorn said:
So would I.

Tanlic, can't you make your point a little more succinctly?! I couldn't be bothered to read your whole post as I have bleary eyes this morning. From what I did read though I know times aren't everything but relative to the Champion it was still quick and if anything Jezki probably comes out with as much credit. I expect JP to run both in the top 2m races either side of the Irish Sea and to be very competitive.
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And how many times have we thought that after a Supreme only to be proved wrong is my point. The times have in the main turned out to be totally irrelevant to what happened in future races. A couple of the lads have jumped on Jezki for the Champion Hurdle but I doubt if he'll win a grade 1 hurdle in Ireland next year if Hurricane fly is around. He might end up having to cross the water to try, but with a home team like MTOY, Grandouet, Rock On Ruby, Zarkandar Countryside Flame and maybe the best of them all Far West all vying for position I think he'll struggle.
 
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Hurricane Fly

H1-H3 = 31.23
H3-H4 = 32.58
H4-H5 = 31.71
H5-H6 = 32.46
H6-H7 = 35.93

Average Speed to 2nd[7th]last = 32.78 mph

Rooster Booster's win was in a real pace collapse as you'll see from the figures..similar ground

Rooster Booster

H1-H3 = 31.77
H3-H4 = 32.26
H4-H5 = 31.75
H5-H6 = 32.64
H6-H7 = 33.03

Average Speed to 2nd[7th]last = 32.29 mph

up to the 7th Roosters time is slower overall..but the real damage was done early with the long 1-4 hurdle section where he went faster than Sublimity who's own race was over fast early anyway.

So in a similar way on the averages HF is allowed to be slower from the 2nd last to the line..HF to line = 42.11...Rooster to line = 39.32.

So even after Roosters crippling early fractions he still ran nearly 3 seconds faster than HF to the line from the 2nd last..and would have beaten Sublimity 5 lengths off similar averages.
 
Grasshopper said:
Isn't any kind of analysis which relies on a very precise measurement (in this case time) diluted somewhat, when you start complementing it with imprecise measurements such as 'similar ground', or even 'very similar ground'.

Given we're talking fractions of seconds, surely even subtle variations in ground conditions will influence the overall time, and therefore the analysis?
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Using the race times of all the races run that day does give you a pretty good idea of the ground speed..no its not exact ..nothing is really

in this instance its just very strange how slow the end of the CH is..its not a small difference..even allowing for slight miscalculations

looking at the data i've got i know that Rooster Booster is a prime candidate for a pace collapse from the 2nd last..as was Sublimity..both their races have slow times from the 2nd last compared to evenly run races. Even Novices such as Ebaziyan who went not disimilar early fractions to HF on the same day as Sublimity ran from the 2nd last in less than 40 seconds.
 
Watching the race back, HF was being niggled along from the 3rd, and only came back on the bridle when they hit the downhill section. From that point he did only what he had to to win, and essentially did 3 stayers for speed.
Comparing with the Supreme, one thing stands out, Noel Fehily ain't half the judge of pace that Ruby is (but then - who is).
 
to try and expand on that Grass..When Punjabi ran.. the ground was a lot slower than yesterday..2 seconds per mile slower..he ran in those conditions up to the 3rd hurdle in 86.20..the same as HF bar 4 hundreths of a second.. in those conditions going that fast was seriously going to damage the final time..yet he still managed to run from the 2nd last to line in 43.1..just 1 second slower than yesterdays
 
reet hard said:
Watching the race back, HF was being niggled along from the 3rd, and only came back on the bridle when they hit the downhill section. From that point he did only what he had to to win, and essentially did 3 stayers for speed.
Comparing with the Supreme, one thing stands out, Noel Fehily ain't half the judge of pace that Ruby is (but then - who is).
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Fehily was probably told to wind it up after halfway though....his ride to the 3rd was perfect..his step up after that..who knows?
 
And how many times have we thought that after a Supreme only to be proved wrong is my point. The times have in the main turned out to be totally irrelevant to what happened in future races. A couple of the lads have jumped on Jezki for the Champion Hurdle but I doubt if he'll win a grade 1 hurdle in Ireland next year if Hurricane fly is around. He might end up having to cross the water to try, but with a home team like MTOY, Grandouet, Rock On Ruby, Zarkandar Countryside Flame and maybe the best of them all Far West all vying for position I think he'll struggle.
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Jezki has the speed to take care of a couple of those mentioned
 
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