Cheltenham Trends Book

an capall

an capall

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Chaps and Chappettes,

I normally buy that slick little book on Cheltenham trends at the gallops meeting at Leop. Didn't see it for sale.

Does anybody know where I'd pick up a copy, or better still have a website that I could study the same type of info??

(Eg, Age of winners, Trainer, Gender, Nationality etc etc)

Faithfully,

AC
 
I've got mine.

William Hill had comments on all the races by Paul Jones on their website ~ worth checking it out as it has been updated since the book was printed several weeks ago.
 
Also the Raceform Cheltenham Update has a trends section....some fella called Longbow, but he gives most of the trends.
 
Thanks for that.

Interesting that Paul Jones states that MWDS may now be aimed at the Ryanair rather than the World Hurdle.
 
Read a while ago [last week??] and annotated - the following trends for the Ballymore:

Essential: RPR over 142
Not Essential: Form at the trip

Age stats: No horse aged 4, or 7 and over, have won this since 1991, and rarely ever
So look for one aged 5/6

Only 3 winners for the last several years have raced on the flat [inc Istabraq] -
Race usually goes to an NH bred with good Bumper form

Minimum of 31 days rest before the rest is normal


POINTS TO: Paddytheplasterer or Trafford Lad
{I've backed Group Captain, who tickes most of the boxes]
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 4 2008, 11:52 PM
Essential: RPR over 142
Not Essential: Form at the trip

Age stats: No horse aged 4, or 7 and over, have won this since 1991, and rarely ever
So look for one aged 5/6

Only 3 winners for the last several years have raced on the flat [inc Istabraq] -
Race usually goes to an NH bred with good Bumper form

Minimum of 31 days rest before the rest is normal
Click to expand...
Not sure where those stats came from but I think you're being led astray by evil bookies. :D

The RPR thing is correct.
Re Age: I give you French Holly.
Re the Flat vs Bumper form. This is one of those things that I would describe as a non trend. In the last 10 years we have, according to my records, 2 ex flat horses, 2 who never raced in bumpers and 6 with half decent bumper form. 6 out of 10 isn't a trend IMO.
The days rest is also leading you astray - 2 of the last 10 raced in late February. (The "Venn" factor would leave you with 5 of the last 10 winners using these stats)

The trends that I have taken for the race are:

1st or 2nd in all completed starts
Raced since the turn of the year
140+ RPR
Graded Form
"Venn" factor - 9 out of 10.

I agree to an extent with Gareth's point about RPR's and thus have a short list of...... the first 5 in the betting. :laughing: Of those five Forpadydeplasterer and Group Captain have more to recommend them for my money.
 
As I pointed out I backed Group Captain anyway, as I prefer to go on my own assessment; but I put that up out of interest. The list was compiled by one of the RP pundits, I can't remember which, tho it may have been ?? Julian Symons [from memory]. I think he went back further than 10 yrs - more like 15. It was in one of the Cheltenham supplements they've been doing, on each race

I always find things like that interesting to read even tho I don't follow them slavishly any more than I do speed ratings! Horse/trainer/jockey form is much more important in my selection than any trends, tho a piece like that might help me make my mind up if I'm undecided between two, and one of them is much closer to the historical profile
 
Some stats I received in an email:


Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle
30 of the last 33 winners were aged 5 or 6.
11 of the last 12 winners won last time out.

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy
Alan King has trained the last 2 winners
French bred horses have won 7 of the last 13 runnings.
19 of the last 20 winners had finished first or second in all completed chase starts.
1 winning favourite since 1992, but 9 of the last 11 winners started 2nd, 3rd or 4th fav.

Champion Hurdle
21 of the last 24 winners won last time out.
All 73 five-year-olds since 1985 have been beaten.
13 of the last 16 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival before.
15 of the last 17 winners started in the first 5 in the betting.

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
Only one favourite has won since 1977.
No winner has carried 11 stone or more for ten years.

Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle
20 of the last 22 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.
Just 1 winner from over 100 runners since 1974 was aged older than 6.

Royal & Sun Alliance Chase
30 of the last 33 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
11 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or 8.
2 winning favourites since 1992, but 9 of last 13 winners started between 2nd-4th fav.

QM Champion Chase
27 of the last 29 winners finished placed at worst last time out.
9 of the last 10 Arkle Trophy winners were 1st or 2nd in this race the next year.
24 of the last 26 winners started at single-figure odds.
18 of the last 23 winners had been placed at worst and the Festival before.

Coral Cup
9 of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10 stone.
Only 1 favourite has won in the last 13 renewals.

Letheby & Christopher National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
22 of the last 24 winners finished in the first 4 last time out.
No 6 year-old has won for 19 years and no successful 5 year-old for 30 years.
Jonjo O'Neill has won 5 renewals - including 4 of the last 6

Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Last time out winners have won 13 of the 15 runnings.
Irish-trained horses have won 12 of the 15 runnings.
9 of the last 11 runnings have been won by a 5 year-old.
Willie Mullins has trained the winner on 5 occasions

World Hurdle
No 5 year-old has ever won.
No Irish trained winner for 13 years.
The last 20 winners finished in the first 4 last time out.

Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase
12 of the last 13 winners carried no more than 11 stone.
French-bred horses have won 5 of the last 8 renewals (and runner-up in the other 3).
Only 1 winning favourite since 1981

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
No Irish-trained winner for 25 years (supplied 6 of last 12 favourites).
8 and 9 year-olds have won 10 of last 14 renewals from less than 50% of the runners.
22 of the last 30 win and placed horses started at odds of 16/1+.

Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
16 of the last 24 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Only 1 winning 5 year-old in the 34-year history of the race

JCB Triumph Hurdle
12 of the last 13 winners won last time out.
9 of the last 14 winners started in the first 4 in the betting

totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
No winner older than 10 for 39 years.
13 of the last 14 winners aged between 7 and 9.
8 of the last 10 winners were placed at the Festival before.
The last 53 horses to be beaten in the Gold Cup before were beaten again

County Hurdle
32 of the last 33 renewals were won by a horse starting at no bigger than 16/1.
Just 4 winners since 1959 were aged older than 7.
16 of the last 19 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (13 finished 1st or 2nd).
 
Originally posted by simmo@Mar 5 2008, 11:11 AM
And the moral of the story is - check the stats you've been given. Mistakes happen.
Click to expand...
ive been using mark howard for last four years, and the stats provided have all been correct.
 
Originally posted by jft2005@Mar 5 2008, 11:52 AM
ive been using mark howard for last four years, and the stats provided have all been correct.
Click to expand...
I'm sure they are. Those provided by Galileo above are not all correct though... :D
 
Originally posted by simmo+Mar 5 2008, 12:04 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (simmo @ Mar 5 2008, 12:04 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-jft2005@Mar 5 2008, 11:52 AM
ive been using mark howard for last four years, and the stats provided have all been correct.
Click to expand...
I'm sure they are. Those provided by Galileo above are not all correct though... :D [/b][/quote]
i see :)
 
Originally posted by simmo+Mar 5 2008, 01:04 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (simmo @ Mar 5 2008, 01:04 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-jft2005@Mar 5 2008, 11:52 AM
ive been using mark howard for last four years, and the stats provided have all been correct.
Click to expand...
I'm sure they are. Those provided by Galileo above are not all correct though... :D [/b][/quote]
:shy: Woops sorry!!!
 
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