Chepstow Musings

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
Messages
16,012
13:40
Dunno about this Nicholls hot-pot in the opener. Horse is potentially smart, but his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well, and he might be priced up on connections old-and-new, rather than what he has achieved in that run. I'll oppose with Hector De Sivola, who was fancied to win first-time-out, but didn't get much luck-in running.

14:12
Seems to be a fair bit of confidence behind the Nicholls horse in this one too, and he is possibly well-handicapped, but he has a long absence to overcome against some match-fit rivals, and Chepstow not usually kind to horses that aren't fully ready. I've rowed-in with Stimulating Song, who wasn't entirely disgraced behind the useful McFabulous in the spring, and who should have come on for his first outing of the season at Ffos Las a couple of weeks back.

14:47
I'm not usually one for backing top-weights in competitive handicaps, and even less one for backing horses trained by Nigel Twiston-Dreamcatcher.......but he knows how to get them ready first time, and whilst Ballyoptic carries a welter-burden today, he skipped round in this last year, and I expect a bold show. Can't take Secret Investor's form in the Denman seriously myself, and would be against him in the place market too.

15:57
The Nicholls horse I do like today is Sir Psycho in the Silver Trophy. I think he'll benefit from this increase in trip and galloping track, and a decent claimer knocks-off a useful 5lbs.
 
My own limited musings posted elsewhere:

In the 2.47, I could make a case for Boldmere if Tricky Dicky wasn’t riding. I might back Potterman since he’s fit, in form and his recent win merely matched his best of last season, on which he’s near the top of the ratings. I would expect a second-season chaser to find another 10lbs from their novice season. 4/1 is no great shakes but it’s hard to make strong cases for anything else.

In the 3.57, it looks like Lightly Squeeze has been taken out so that makes my task easier. Tea Clipper looks interesting for a very shrewd operator with a high strike rate. Doubly Clever is the only definite +p horse on my figures and might be worth an interest at a double-figure price.

In the 4.32, The Bay Birch is 8lbs lower than when winning this race last year and has had a prep. If Marracudja’s form with Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux – when he also bled from the nose – can be taken at face value then he should win. The heavy ground that day, though, might make the form unreliable but he also had the 165-rated Janika well behind and the 153 Capeland miles back.
 
Ballyoptic joins the multitude of non runners

Some Chaos makes some appeal at 11/1 although I reckon some of these might well improve past him. Potterman will have the additional burden of my money as there was plenty to like about the way he skipped clear at Market Rasen and a 5lb rise may underrate him


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I'd like to see Some Chaos return to somewhere near the form of the season before last. He seems positive in the betting which boost confidence a bit. Good luck all.
 
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Grasshopper said:
13:40
Dunno about this Nicholls hot-pot in the opener. Horse is potentially smart, but his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well, and he might be priced up on connections old-and-new, rather than what he has achieved in that run. I'll oppose with Hector De Sivola, who was fancied to win first-time-out, but didn't get much luck-in running.
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In fairness to that race, the Prix Rush is steeped in history and the form hasn't really been tested enough to describe as exposed. Neither of the front two have ran since and while third placed Shawinigan was well beaten behind Heros d'Ainay in the listed Prix Go Ahead so was every other runner. Fourth placed Hirta did well in a handicap off a mark in the 130s and the fifth hasn't been out since. Then it's fifteen lengths to the sixth who beat Bannister last time and the seventh placed was not disgraced at Dieppe behind Paros (current Triumph favourite), Jeu de Paume (pattern class) and Hacker des Places (now with Paul Nicholls). It's not mouth-watering form by any means but it is still worthy of respect in the field.

Hector de Sivola is an interesting choice of runner for connections but I would not read too much into his being well fancied at Newton Abbot as he was favourite by default given the quality of the field.

I won't be betting on this or any other race so I don't mind being wrong if it means that you get to benefit materially :)
 
No surprise so many horses were taken out yesterday and some today. The ground is awful, officially described as good but soft “puddles” all over the place.
 
Bachelors Hall said:
In fairness to that race, the Prix Rush is steeped in history and the form hasn't really been tested enough to describe as exposed.
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I don't believe I described it as "exposed" did I, Kotki? ;)

The Nicholls horse was a 1/2 chance when I looked. It's the kind I like to take on in a juvenile hurdle, when those that have run from the favourites race, have failed to frank the form. I'm a complete weirdo that way. :)

Good to see you, pal - hope you're well. :thumbsup:
 
Grasshopper said:
13:40
Dunno about this Nicholls hot-pot in the opener. Horse is potentially smart, but his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well, and he might be priced up on connections old-and-new, rather than what he has achieved in that run. I'll oppose with Hector De Sivola, who was fancied to win first-time-out, but didn't get much luck-in running.

14:12
Seems to be a fair bit of confidence behind the Nicholls horse in this one too, and he is possibly well-handicapped, but he has a long absence to overcome against some match-fit rivals, and Chepstow not usually kind to horses that aren't fully ready. I've rowed-in with Stimulating Song, who wasn't entirely disgraced behind the useful McFabulous in the spring, and who should have come on for his first outing of the season at Ffos Las a couple of weeks back.

14:47
I'm not usually one for backing top-weights in competitive handicaps, and even less one for backing horses trained by Nigel Twiston-Dreamcatcher.......but he knows how to get them ready first time, and whilst Ballyoptic carries a welter-burden today, he skipped round in this last year, and I expect a bold show. Can't take Secret Investor's form in the Denman seriously myself, and would be against him in the place market too.

15:57
The Nicholls horse I do like today is Sir Psycho in the Silver Trophy. I think he'll benefit from this increase in trip and galloping track, and a decent claimer knocks-off a useful 5lbs.
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Standard start.
 
Same here so far...


Desert Orchid said:
In the 3.57, it looks like Lightly Squeeze has been taken out so that makes my task easier. Tea Clipper looks interesting for a very shrewd operator with a high strike rate. Doubly Clever is the only definite +p horse on my figures and might be worth an interest at a double-figure price.
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Backed Doubly Clever (fell), didn't back Tea Clipper.
 
Disappointing day for me too until Pink Eyed Pedro got me out of a hole

Secret Investor got little competition for the lead and showed what he can do in those circumstances

Longhouse Sale never jumped with any fluency and had the stuffing knocked out of him with a bad mid-race blunder. He’ll continue to struggle in the sort of company he faced today I reckon

Sir Psycho didn’t seem to stay (trust me to back the Nichols horse that underperformed)

Shame about all the non-runners

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Had a bit ew on Pink Eyed Pedro as I thought he ran well at MR last time and his owner/trainer/breeder David Brace is a sponsor at Chepstow so he wasn’t going there for just a day out. I knew the horse from his Pointing days and won a bit when he won the Dunraven Bowl there.
 
Grasshopper said:
I don't believe I described it as "exposed" did I, Kotki? ;)

The Nicholls horse was a 1/2 chance when I looked. It's the kind I like to take on in a juvenile hurdle, when those that have run from the favourites race, have failed to frank the form. I'm a complete weirdo that way. :)
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Not quite although if one is to describe the form of a race as having not "worked out well", it should be exposed as such in the first place. Not winning a bunch of listed races is not the same as failing to frank the form - particularly as a few of those that have ran had shown enough to win the types of races we've seen in the UK thus far. It's all about context you understand...

Grasshopper said:
Good to see you, pal - hope you're well. :thumbsup:
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Likewise it is nice to see you too. Hope that you have summered well and are carrying enough condition for the upcoming months. :)
 
"......his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well".

Note the critical qualifier, Kotki.

C'mon - you've known me long enough to know I won't lie down on this kind of thing. ;) :D

 
McFabulous been given a new rating of 153 (which includes extra credit for the amount he appeared to have in hand over and above the bare result) which is the highest achieved in the race since Silviniaco Conti (also 153), in 2010.
 
He looked impressive, and Nicholls clearly rates him highly, but I'm not sure an early season win against horses that wouldn't be sighted in a graded handicap is worth 153.
 
viking said:
Disappointing day for me too until Pink Eyed Pedro got me out of a hole

Secret Investor got little competition for the lead and showed what he can do in those circumstances

Longhouse Sale never jumped with any fluency and had the stuffing knocked out of him with a bad mid-race blunder. He’ll continue to struggle in the sort of company he faced today I reckon

Sir Psycho didn’t seem to stay (trust me to back the Nichols horse that underperformed)

Shame about all the non-runners

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Sir Psycho on the radar for a 2m handicap on bottomless ground for me.
 
Some Chaos entered in three races this weekend, including on Saturday in the Edinburgh Gin Chase at Kelso.

I've kept the faith with much worse horses than him. Given his poor performances last season, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the last day. He was a well held third, but it was probably his first proper race for some considerable time. He can improve on that, imho.
 
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Marb said:
Some Chaos entered in three races this weekend, including on Saturday in the Edinburgh Gin Chase at Kelso.

I've kept the faith with much worse horses than him. Given his poor performances last season, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the last day. He was a well held third, but it was probably his first proper race for some considerable time. He can improve on that, imho.
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He went up 3lb for winning this, I see Some Chaos is entered in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on Saturday along with the second horse from the Chepstow race Potterman. I'll be sticking with Some Chaos if he's declared.
 
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A really good effort by Some Chaos yesterday. He finished 5th in the end beaten just over five lengths over the 3 miles + distance.

The horses that finished ahead of him were considerably younger horses with less chase starts, i.e the first two home were 7year olds, third home was a 4 year old, and fourth horse home a six year old. Some Chaos is a 9 year old going on 10.

The first two should go up in the handicap a bit too. Overall you'd think Some Chaos is still a horse who can win another race or two over 3 miles, or at least be in there with a live chance of doing so.

He's ran twice at Chelteham including once over fences but didn't run well, (although I don't think that was his true form). I wonder if they will find a race at Cheltenham for him in the next few months, with a view to eventually having a crack at the Kim Muir.
 
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Yes, looking over the result earlier today, it looked to me like Some Chaos might be a fair marker for the form.

It's one of the reasons I suggested the handicapper might raise Potterman 4 or 5lbs for yesterday.

The Badger Ales is always a strong race. My Way turned out to be the Nicholls 'job' and was three lengths clear at the last. I suspect the young jockey will have got his arse warmed for going too soon given how the horse folded on the run-in.

The front two are very progressive, as is the third who as Double J suggested would have gone close/won but for being badly hampered three out.

Other good horses ran well too.

As for Some Chaos, I suspect he'll need to take a little drop in class to win off yesterday's mark but he might actually be dropped a pound or two for it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Badger Ales is always a strong race. My Way turned out to be the Nicholls 'job' and was three lengths clear at the last. I suspect the young jockey will have got his arse warmed for going too soon given how the horse folded on the run-in.
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To be fair the Tizzard horse falling did him no favours

I’m annoyed by his failure to win on Sametegal yesterday when going clearly best coming to the last. He may not have got up the hill anyway though


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