Christmas eve eve Saturday (23rd)

M

Marb

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A thread for Saturday.

I've backed Yala Enki for The Lavazza Chase.
Soft or heavy ground would be a major bonus.
He's about to turn 8 years of age and has proved his salt since going to Venetia Williams yard from France.
Ps, I've actually no idea what ground conditions are likely. I should have checked beforehand. I'm not even sure if Yala Enki will run unless its soft or heavy..anyways...see what happens.
 
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Singlefarmpayment is the obvious one in that race. He's still ahead of the handicapper and the track should be ok.

Charli Parcs is fav for the old Ladbroke but his chance is really obvious - ran a good race fto against High Bridge. Took 6s at the weekend.

I think the market is wrong in the Long Walk. 'Harry fav fair enough but Thomas Campbell and Sam Spinner face huge tasks coming out of handicap company and L'ami Serge and The World's End appeal much more. Backed both each way.
 
Euronymous said:
Singlefarmpayment is the obvious one in that race. He's still ahead of the handicapper and the track should be ok.
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Aye, fair enough.

You know me Euro, always trying to get one-up at a price. Its like meeting partners I'm told, it actually gets harder as you get older. :)

I've not looked at other races but you seem clued-up so will look at your selections closely.
 
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I don't know what the ground is like now, but the Weather forecast is cloudy at Ascot until Saturday.
 
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Yes I thought so, Ben.

I must have been mad not to check the going forecast, my mind is going. :(

Given the time of year I assumed it would be soft or heavy. :(

Miracle needed.
 
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I was planning on having a bit of a break until the new year and haven't really had a good look at this race but just of the top of my head I can form some sort of opinion.

Tbh Marb Yala enki has stopped like he's been shot on his last 2 runs (I was on him on his latest). He looks like a candidate for a breathing op or a tongue tie or maybe V is trying to get him handicapped for something I'm not sure, actually thought she might try him in the Welsh National but who knows. I'd played a R/F with him last time with Boric and the forecast must have been trading at 1.5 in as they turned for home. Beware of the bear who also could line up here was being ridden going backwards and probably 20L behind at one point and got up to win in the end. A truly bizzare race and thoughts that Beware of the bear is a bit of a boat after watching that.

Single Farm Payment I can see why people like him I do myself as I think he still has a few lbs in hand when things drop right for him however, over exaggerated hold up tactics are not really suited to Ascot and at the prices he makes little appeal.

Go conquer and OO7 both look like they are handicapped to the hilt to me.

Two that make appeal are Gold present and On tour with the latter currently at 12/1 generally probably the better bet although he too is a hold up horse so will need things to drop right. They came from the same race at Newbury last time Gold present won it and got raised 5lb. However he jumped badly right handed all the way around so switching to a right handed track should help. He also led most the way. He was headed but stayed on strongly to get back up. That was over 2m6.5F so although only a small step up to 3 miles here any extra would seem to be a help. I think this was also a horse that was reportedly Henderson had been having trouble getting fit so is entitled to come on for the run. All that considered a 5lb rise doesn't look too harsh. I'm not sure on whether he runs here or not so might be best to hold fire on bets until after the decs. On Tour though I'm 99% certain will take his chance as I read Evan Williams bypassed the Caspian Caviar with this in mind. On Tour was cruising in behind Gold Present when unseating a couple of fences from home. Its hard to say whether he'd have won or not but you'd be forgiven for thinking he'd have run him close and he rematches here on 5lb better terms. At 12/1 in this field I think its a bit of a no brainer and although I don't like to have a bet without really having a thorough look I'll have a little e/w poke at the price and probably play a forecast if they both turn up on the day.

If I have a better look at the race I'll post further thoughts but I probably won't as I'm a lazy arse and its nearly Christmas :)
 
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Euronymous said:
I think the market is wrong in the Long Walk. 'Harry fav fair enough but Thomas Campbell and Sam Spinner face huge tasks coming out of handicap company and L'ami Serge and The World's End appeal much more. Backed both each way.
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Its another race I haven't really paid attention too but having spent a lot of time going through the fixed brush hurdle the other week and being fairly familiar with Thomas Campbell I think your possibly right. The Worlds end is an interesting one not sure about him for this and I've read Tom George is planning on sending him chasing after this if he doesn't do well. Possibly a better idea would be if he could get him dropped a few pounds he looks an ideal sort for the Coral Cup. Travels really well in his races I think it would suit. Could be a good few days for Tom. Some lively chances on Saturday and when he wins the King George with a handicapper that'll top it off nicely :ninja:.
 
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Danny, the saddle slipped a long way out on Beware the Bear that day, it was a great ride from Sean Bowen.
 
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Marble said:
Yes I thought so, Ben.

I must have been mad not to check the going forecast, my mind is going. :(

Given the time of year I assumed it would be soft or heavy. :(

Miracle needed.
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There's only been spots of rain this week, but still Soft at Ascot and 5.4 on the going stick. You may get that Xmas miracle Marb :)
 
Fergall finished third in this same handicap hurdle last season off a slightly lower mark. He just missed out on second place that day in the final strides, but it was a very good renewal with Brain Power winning and good horses in behind. Fergall has a five pound claimer on tomorrow which compensates for him being a bit higher up in the weights, and I really do think he's an each way chance at 25-1. It'd be good to see a smaller trainer like Seamus Mullins land a prize like this as well. He did quite well with Song Light when that horse was hurdling, and I reckon Fergall has another big performance in himself.
 
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I can understand why Barry has not chosen Charli Parcs, the only time he has ridden the horse he fell and fucked his Festival up, so for me it's not really an informed choice. CP ran a stormer fto and there's no question he's on a winning mark.
 
Agree he’s on a winning mark but he couldn’t pick up on the g/s ground last time and no reason IMO it’ll be different today

At the prices I reckon Verdana Blue could go well although has an 8lb hike to overcome having beaten another progressive type last time out


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I respect Charli but have done Silver Streak myself. He looks the one to me.
 
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What the **** was Nico doing there. Gave Verdana Blue far too much to do


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I had a totally shite day starting with a phone call from Orchidette telling me her car had broken down on the motorway.

Can't say many of the TV winners were on the radar but some of mine just ran too bad to be true or fell.
 
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