Clarence House. Chase

barjon

barjon

Rookie
Joined
Aug 2, 2020
Messages
3,880
What did you think of First Flow, then? Pretty good, eh?

I thought David Bass gave him a super ride, got him flying the fences and pulverising Politologue. Couldn’t have done it without the horse under him, of course, but not many jockeys would have got that performance out of First Flow.
 
I'm not sure many people saw that kind of performance coming, though, and I have to wonder how literally we should read it.

First Flow is a very decent animal. He's now won his last six but his two previous wins suggested his form was reaching its plateau.

There was always a chance yesterday's race would fall apart with Defi auditioning for Crufts and Waiting Patiently back down a mile in trip.

Plenty of good judges were holding a torch for Fanion D'Estruval, a flame probably fanned by Deutsch's preferring to be at Ascot for him (and others) rather than the hugely impressive Royale Pagaille at Haydock, and it's probably true to say the horse ran very well, only pipped for third by Waiting Patiently.

But nothing in the form book suggested First Flow was ever going to be good enough to beat Politologue at his best, so it begs the question whether the latter was indeed at his best.

Or what, indeed, his best form amounted to.

Reading form still involves a lot of subjective analysis. Simon Rowlands prefers it when there is hard data to back up - or even direct - that subjectivity. As do I.

I think before the race yesterday, somebody on here was suggesting Politologue's form wasn't really as good as generally accepted. Yesterday's events will bolster that opinion.

Paul Nicholls has had some ridiculously high class two-milers through his care in the last couple of decades. He knows a good one when it comes along. He's always rated Politologue. He's never said he's a Master Minded or Kauto Star but he still rates him.

I suspect First Flow has improved a lot from Wetherby and probably got the best tactical ride yesterday. Ascot can throw up some funny performances so it remains to be seen if this is a one-off.

I suspect Nicholls thought Politologue could win yesterday short of peak fitness, so as not to leave his Cheltenham title behind. Did greed drive him to run the horse here rather than just wait and pursue the successful tactic of last year in going there mad fresh?

As most on here know, I'm fond of the 'take x out' approach.

Take Politologue out of the equation and how would you rate the defeat of Waiting Patiently (back in trip from 3m) and the nine lengths beating of 154-rated Fanion D'Estruval?

Take First Flow out of the equation and how would you rate the laboured, narrow win of Politologue from the same horses?

I can't help thinking Poliologue wasn't fit, in which case I'm glad. Nicholls may have looked shocked at losing but, as I say, he probably didn't expect that kind of run from First Flow.

I'll get a closer look at the nuts and bolts of the form during the week and I suspect Simon Rowlands will do a sectional analysis on the ATR site but for now my gut concludes:

First Flow - improved performance, super ride, might struggle to repeat it at the top level
Politologue - will improve a lot at Cheltenham
Others - dismissable at this level/trip.
 
A long post basically saying that you were right.

Take First Flow out of the race, and Politologue controls the race from the front, kicks around the home turn and wins by about 4 , maybe a little more. (Cobden let First Flow go thinking he would pick him up in the straight, and tried between the last two).

Everyone would say that Fanion is improved and Waiting Patiently is a good horse and too slow for 2m and Defi isnt the force he was. The race runs to form and Champion Chase prices remain unchanged.
 
Ok, I was a tad more impressed. Accept that Politologue probably had a bit left to work on before Cheltenham and that Cobden didn’t give him a hard time. Nonetheless, First Flow’s jumping was top class as was his ability to take on Politologue before the latter’s lack of full fitness began to tell (if that was the case) and then go on to finish well. In all, I find it difficult to knock his performance very much.
 
Last edited:
Politologue probably not match-fit.....would have been let down a bit in training to get his jabs in early January.

WP not a 2-miler - never has been. The trainer is a complete guesser.

Defi a hound, and needs further anyway.

Fanion's a handicapper. No right to be shorter in betting than the winner.

First Flow in-form, gets his ground, and takes advantage.

Impact on QMCC is zero. Chacun just needs to show up.
 
Last edited:
It's not as if First Flow just ran the same race as always. He has clearly improved. Plenty of people happy to excuse politilogues 7l defeat as 'not being at champion chase pitch'. It's in January for everyone. Of course he wasn't revved up to the last but Nicholls was surprised about it, and that he was hammered. Throw in a bit of 'what do we do now' into the mix. Getting a hard race in the process.

In the end it was dynamite dollars and greanateen that he beat for his grade 1s. Given what we know now, I'd be happy to think that first flow could do that.
 
Agree Hawk Wing I think that's as good as Politologue is.
Great ride by Bass though not giving Politologue a soft lead.
If only he'd have ridden in the King George :whistle:
 
I see Defi has never had a wind op. That would be what I would be looking at - possibly not audible. Gallop him on a treadmill with an endoscope. I would pretty much guess that he’s got a physical problem. Genuine horses that have been that good, just don’t become “dogs” as you all suggest. The very vast majority of horses are genuine, until it hurts somewhere.
 
Last edited:
Politologue goes best really fresh and Nicholls was pot hunting. Glad fingers were burned.
Ascot is turning into a dodgy track where you have to be in front. Cyrname looks like a 180 beast there but barely 160 elsewhere.
 
I'm slightly inclined to lean towards barjons analysis that it was a much improved and impressive performance from the winner - I can accept excuses for one horse, two at a push but for all the rest of the field sounds like clutching at straws and ignoring the most likely reason he won. If all the excuses about the market leaders were/are a given, then how did First Flow go off at 14/1??
 
jinnyj said:
I see Defi has never had a wind op. That would be what I would be looking at - possibly not audible. Gallop him on a treadmill with an endoscope. I would pretty much guess that he’s got a physical problem. Genuine horses that have been that good, just don’t become “dogs” as you all suggest. The very vast majority of horses are genuine, until it hurts somewhere.
Click to expand...

I don’t really care about Cause - I’m more interested in Effect.

Any ‘top-class’ horse that is as inconsistent as Defi is, gets put firmly in the Hound bracket. He has failed to give his running on far too many occassions now, for my tastes.
 
Last edited:
Beef or Salmon said:
I'm slightly inclined to lean towards barjons analysis that it was a much improved and impressive performance from the winner - I can accept excuses for one horse, two at a push but for all the rest of the field sounds like clutching at straws and ignoring the most likely reason he won. If all the excuses about the market leaders were/are a given, then how did First Flow go off at 14/1??
Click to expand...

His improvement was gradual at best and he had a lot to find on ratings against the 'big 3'.

I've just watched the Nicholls post-race interview. He does seem genuinely surprised by FF's performance.

We talk a lot on here about how much you should heed what a trainer says and most of the battle lies in what to take as genuine and what to dismiss. I tend not to take too much notice of what he says in his previews, most of which are designed to put punters away but he did seem genuine about yesterday.

That's not to say Politologue won't improve but I'll probably take as positive a view of the form as I can with Politologue out of the picture.

I imagine it will have FF much closer to barjon's assessment than I would originally have thought.
 
I think the answer is pretty simple. The two mile chasers over here aren't up to much, and First Flow was the best of a bad bunch under conditions to suit. That said he did it well and can be counted as a Grade 1 horse when he's going right handed on soft and heavy ground. Politoglogue won a Champion Chase that fell apart and also didn't run his race (did he bleed again?), Defi has been shown to be massively over rated, Waiting Patiently isn't a two miler, and Fanion D'estruval is a handicapper.
 
I dont think Defi de Seuil has been the same horse since this race last year - for whatever reason. I dont think his form is overrated as such. He just got on a purple patch. (Its a coincidence to my eyes that Lostintranslation has gone the same way).

I'd like to think that the time figure for the race would be very high, given how hard they went in the middle and how Politologue could barely raise a leg from before the last, yet none of of those held up could challenge him.
 
HawkWing said:
...given how hard they went in the middle and how Politologue could barely raise a leg from before the last, yet none of of those held up could challenge him.
Click to expand...

There have been a number of inexplicably good performances at Ascot in recent seasons. I first noticed it four years ago when Tenor Nivernais beat Go Conquer 30 lengths off 152 in a £50k handicap chase (and backed him for the Gold Cup on the back of it). On RPRs he never ran with 23lbs of it again. The comment also specifically mentions that he 'maintained gallop' after making all. There have been loads of similarly unusual performances there since.

One that stands out for me is the second handicap there last season involving Capeland and his stable companion Diego Du Charmil. I've looked at that form from every angle, including times, and it's a serious G1 performance yet he's never got really near it on my own figures since.

I've also noticed when Venetia Williams sends her horses there they tend to be ridden prominently and keep on really well. I wonder if she has cottoned on to a quirk of the track than can be exploited.

The flip side of this coin is that it might pay to oppose impressive Ascot winners in the next races.
 
From Bailey’s Blog

“Thankful for a trusty 4x4 to drive to Thorndale to say Hi to my first Grade one winner since 1995.

He was happy, as I was..

First Flow you are an odd ball, you are a gem, you are a one off, you wear your heart on your sleeve, you are honest, you try and of course you are a Grade one winning racehorse who is loved by many people, especially those who look after you and work with you.

Saturdays performance was electric and I am not talking about my form of transport to watch you.. Before we doubted your ability to win, not your ability as a racehorse, but your ability to show your best on ground that was certainly not as soft as we had hoped ..

David Bass was worried, but he is, like you, a well known trier… and my parting comment to David Bass when Leigh legged him up on you was.. go for it..

You made it to the start with no fanfare from the TV coverage.. they were not really that interested in you.. you were a bit part player as far as they were concerned in a bigger picture of the reining Champion Chaser and his immediate opposition.. you were trading at 14/1, so yes a bit part was excepted of you….

But there is where it all ends as your jockey David Bass trusts you and believes in you, and rather than take the favourite on from the word go, he settled you in second behind Politologue and waited..

Heading down the hill on the far side you were still enjoying yourself, travelling happily in second place and then you gained a few lengths at the second down hill fence and the vibes from you set David Bass alight.. He too sensed that you were ready for the big day.

The pair of you flew the next and landed upside Politologue and you eyeballed each other, as did David Bass and Harry Cobden…

It was time to show the world that you stay strongly and that you could teach the old guard a lesson or two..

I am not sure how it must have felt for you but watching you surge clear with only 3 fences to go had me dropping my coffee in the huge empty grandstand to start shouting in disbelief..

You flew round the home bend and you were not for stopping and you flew over the last and to show off, you accelerated up the run in to win by 7 lengths..

Gasping for air I nearly fell down the steps in haste to see you..And then the phone starting ringing and pinging.. You and David Bass had given all at Thorndale that great Grade One moment..

No fane fare, no crowds, just a phone call to a very happy owner in Tony Solomons.. and then David and I posed for pictures with you, and then in disbelief we were ushered inside for interviews while you headed off with Stevie and Leigh for a wash down and moment to reflect on what you had just achieved.. Greatness..

No celebrations and the drive home was all talk and then a chance to recharge my car batteries at Membury service centre gave me time to reflect..

Mrs B rang and said it would not be a good idea to keep my pledge for dry January and however much I might like to think I am strong willed… Chateau Talbot 2004 was waiting.. How could I possibly drink water..

And a chance like all trainers do..watch their horses winning replay..

Staggering was all I could say.. It really did dawn on me what a fabulous ride David had given First Flow.. Yes of course I knew, but watching again it was something else.. Mad, stupid, brave, call it what you like, but it was magical and I am so pleased for David as he has been such an important part of Thorndale for the last 6/7 years..

Like his riding style or not David Bass tries.. He like First Flow wears his heart on his sleeve.
 
Back
Top