Dewhurst 2004
I can't see the logic behind suggesting that Shamardal won't be the same horse on fast ground - his first two races were on fast ground and he does not have a rounded action .
From an ante-post point of view it is a real bonus that there will be no ground worries. There have been shorter price favourites for either Guineas over the winter for whom soft ground would have been, at best, an unknown.
Irish Stamp
18th October 2004, 12:13 PM
Steve not sure if i'm correct but did Johnston keep LAH till the end of his 3yo season?
If they do buy him i hope he doesn't move to Godolphin etc. until he's at least 4 (if he isn't retired early)
BrianH
18th October 2004, 12:44 PM
They don't really have to buy him - they own him already through Gainsborough Stud
Swirly Chaser
18th October 2004, 1:02 PM
Steve, your reply immediately after the above was originally posted was -
balls?... Have you been drinking by any chance?
The strange thing is that I agree with every word. :lol:
SteveM
18th October 2004, 1:44 PM
Yes, but it is not clear exactly what has happened.
Both Ahmed and Abdulla Buhaleeba's equine interests have always been managed by Gainsborough Stud.
Now that these interests appear to have passed to the Maktoums (due it seems to the gambling activities of the Buhaleeba's), it will be interesting to see if they will continue running in Gainsborugh Stud colours, or one of the elder Maktoum brother's colours (Hamden or Maktoum Al Maktoum, who are said to have close connections with the two Buhaleeba brothers) or whether they will be transferred to Godolphin and run under those colours.
Heaven knows why the Buhaleeba's couldn't have smashed their way out of trouble by backing Shamardal. I could have told them. They would of course have ruined the price for us. And anyway I didn't think they were supposed to gamble.
sunybay
18th October 2004, 1:51 PM
Originally posted by SteveM@Oct 18 2004, 01:00 PM
The difference is I never fancied Xaar for the Guineas. Shamardal is a different horse.
5/1 is value to my mind Brian.
I think if the Maktoums do assume ownership that Johnston will be allowed to keep him at least for the Guineas, as was the case with Lend a Hand.
Steve
I think Xaar was a better prospect than this one at the same stage of their carreers.
SteveM
18th October 2004, 1:52 PM
...I don't. This is the best 2-y-o prospect I've seen in many a year, I'm tempted to say since Mill Reef, but he of course failed to win the Guineas.
BrianH
18th October 2004, 1:58 PM
The Buhaleebas only leased the horses from Gainsborough, Steve. As you know gambling is against the teachings of Islam and it seems that Sheikh Maktoum Al Maktoum thought that the much-publicised gambling stories (which relate to a few months ago) made the brothers unsuitable lessees. This may be a bit harsh on Abdulla, as it is only Ahmed who was punting ferocioiusly at the Ritz.
sunybay
18th October 2004, 2:03 PM
Originally posted by SteveM@Oct 18 2004, 02:52 PM
...I don't. This is the best 2-y-o prospect I've seen in many a year, I'm tempted to say since Mill Reef, but he of course failed to win the Guineas.
I dont think him as better prospect for the Guienas than was Xaar or Zafonic.
I also thought Celtic Swing was almost unbeatable after that awesome display in the RP Trophy.Or even Hawk Wing after broking the record of The Curragh.
Maurice
18th October 2004, 2:03 PM
Punting At The Ritz. Didn't Peter Boyle sing that in Young Frankenstein?
Ardross
18th October 2004, 2:15 PM
Pennekamp - bless him 
Galileo
18th October 2004, 3:28 PM
Better than Hawk Wing Steve! 
HughC
18th October 2004, 3:41 PM
Arazi?
BrianH
18th October 2004, 3:44 PM
Of ccourse, Lindop never raced as a two-year-old...
Maurice
18th October 2004, 5:49 PM
:lol:
PDJ
18th October 2004, 5:56 PM
:lol: :lol:
SteveM
19th October 2004, 3:27 PM
Yes that’s right IS Johnston was allowed to keep Lend A Hand until the end of his Guineas season and was transferred to Godolphin for his 4-y-o+ career.
When I talk about Shamardal being one of the best 2-y-o prospects I have seen I mean just that.
Arazi was just about the most brilliant 2-y-o any of us have seen, but he was no prospect to develop as his knees were caput after the BC Juvenile (as Paul Cole declared at the time to the annoyance of his connections) and no one should have expected too much from such a small colt with damaged knees.
I never though Xaar was anything that special and he has dodgy conformation. I was adamant, as Aidan and probably one or two others may remember, that King Of Kings was certain to beat him in the Guineas. In fact King Of Kings was the last horse (apart from Hawk Wing who I backed for the Guineas straight after the National Stakes) that I backed so far ahead of the Guineas itself at odds of 20/1 and 10/1 (I also backed Stravinsky the Winter before).
Hawk Wing seemed to me a brilliant prospect (and of course should have won the Guineas), but Shamardal is no less of one. Mill Reef was of course the prototype 2-y-o that all 2-y-os should aspire too and he was a prospect and a half.
Hector Protector and Fasliyev were among other great 2-y-os.
However, Shamardal is one of the very best prospects for winning the Guineas that I have seen since the early Seventies, not least because he looks virtually certain to be aimed at it. If he does line up and is beaten it will take a Brigadier Gerard-Guineas performance to beat him (and I’m not sure he isn’t even up to that) and events like that just don’t turn up that often.
Shamardal would win nine out of ten Guineas and perhaps, just perhaps, one more than that.
Maurice
22nd October 2004, 9:17 AM
I managed a look at the times. On the face of it, Shamardal's unadjusted time rating of 110 is exceptional, and he did beat a G1 winner into second.
However, Peter May urges caution over at Daylight's place and he is no bad judge.
The time might be misleading, which can often be the case on very soft (officially Soft, Heavy in places). The times weren't as slow as I expected but apparently there was a moderate tail wind.
Since I haven't been studying the 2yos so far I can't say any more, but despite Peter's doubts, I reckon the Dewhurst form stands up to close inspection in terms of this season's crop.
SteveM
23rd October 2004, 10:51 AM
I urge abandon rather than caution about this horse. He is even better than we saw in the Dewhurst and will pulverise any 2-y-o seen out so far in the Guineas if improving only slightly.
I'm not criticising this guy who urges caution, but if ever there was one not to urge it about it's this.
There has rarely been such a wide gulf among 2-y-os between the best and the next best at the end of a season (and I'm not even talking ratings here, just obvious superiority and what I have seen him do). The others are extremely unlikely to be able to show the required improvement to match him in any way by the time of the early season classics.
This horse is the real deal, he has no chinks in his armour. The right type for the Guineas and the winner if he gets to post, which I have no doubt he will.
Maurice
23rd October 2004, 10:55 AM
I imagine you quite like this horse, Steve :lol:
Galileo
23rd October 2004, 10:56 AM
Steve while I admire your confidence in the horse, and I will state I expected him to win the Dewhurst, he did only beat Oratario, a horse you didn't get too excited about after his Group1 win, by 2 1/2 lenghts. Oratario pulled muscles in that race, hard to know if it effected him or not. I would also point out the weakness of Oratario in the betting on the day, Ballydoyle were not going there thinking they had the second coming in the hands.
I would also point out how much closer Montgomery's Arch got to the O'Brien horse in this race. Beaten two lenghts in France and then got to within a head in Newmarket. He clearly appreciated the ease, Oratario didn't.
Do not get me wrong, have the utmost of respect for Shamardal and he deserves to be favourite, but lets get hold of ourselves here!!
Maurice
23rd October 2004, 10:58 AM
Ballydoyle were not going there thinking they had the second coming in the hands.
A bit early for stud duties, isn't it?
SteveM
23rd October 2004, 11:00 AM
:lol:
Not really Mo... just the best of a bad bunch. 
Galileo
23rd October 2004, 11:01 AM
That might come back to bite you Steve in the spring!! I certainly wouldn't think Oratario will be their number one horse at Newmarket. Himself and Russian Blue have done a very good job for them this season though.
SteveM
23rd October 2004, 11:13 AM
I thought Oratorio or Iceman had the best chance of finishing second to Shamardal Aidan. I honestly hope that Oratorio isn't the best one Ballydoyle have. On better ground Shamardal could have beaten him half the distance of the track.
The RP has given him a high rating of 125 and a time figure of 127 against Oratorio's 119 for both.
What I'm saying is that this is the tip of the Iceberg for Shamardal he is disproportionately better than any of the others in relative terms than he has yet shown.
Galileo
26th March 2005, 6:59 PM
Just thought I would bring this thread back up regarding my comments about Oratario and Russian Blue:
Steve (referring to Oratario):
just the best of a bad bunch
Myself:
That might come back to bite you Steve in the spring!! I certainly wouldn't think Oratario will be their number one horse at Newmarket. Himself and Russian Blue have done a very good job for them this season though
What I have told you and (more importantly) the market is telling us strongly that Oratario will struggle to be Ballydoyle's second string let alone first string if he turns up at all in Newmarket.
Powerscourt
27th March 2005, 11:57 AM
I think it is important not to judge three year olds based solely on their two year old form until they have run a least once at three.
There are so many precocious juvenile types that start to get passed by now at this time of the year by the late starters.
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