Confidence Wise

H

High Rate

At the Start
Joined
Mar 7, 2013
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337
How confident are the punting massive on Talking Horses of landing a few blows against the bookies this next week, or even via the exchanges?

Do you get the same level of confidence every year with your bets, or are some years different to others?

I myself am very tentative this year, I feel like of the bets I've put on I just won't know until the tapes go up.

I've felt more confident is previous years put it that way.

I might just follow the hot horses in the betting on the day in the races I havn't bet in yet.

Ps, Sir Des Champs and Riverside Theatre my two bankers of the meeting ha. :)
 
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Not confident at all, mainly because my non-runner count is eye watering. Coneygree being pulled out of the AB today hurts a lot. I'm £400 in the red before it even starts.

My Tent or Yours, Boston Bob, First Lieutenant - I need maybe two of them to win to have a shot at showing a profit over the four days.

All that said I'm well up on the season up to now so have a decent buffa.
 
The better the ground the more confident I tend to be. It's quite a while since I had a really bad Cheltenham and I tend to find some of the bigger-priced winners too (last year it was Son Of Flicka). But I reckon the day you assume you're going to finish the week better off than when you started is the day you can sign in at the local mental healthcare facility.

Having said that, there have been individual horses about which I have been annoyingly - as plenty on here will testify - confident. Rooster Booster would have to be the main one. But I was also very bullish about See More Business for his first Gold Cup from the day he won the Charlie Hall. I was sure LLT would run Nick Dundee into the ground too. I thought Katarino was a cert in the Triumph.

However, I suppose for every winner about which I've been confident, there have been plenty who have bit the dust. Grandouet falls into that category. I'm convinced he is by far the best hurdler we've seen since Istabraq and I'm utterly convinced he would have won easing up last year. Only his interrupted prep is holding me back this time but I'm just as heavily committed on the betting front.
 
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i wouldnt say im overly confident especially since monksland being pulled out was going to my main bet of the week.But im very keen on boston bob even without ruby,tuesday will be relativeley quiet betting wise as ill be taking melodic rendezvous to hopefully ease me in to the week and probabley small each way on loch ba in the jlt.wednesday and friday will be the main betting days for me with boston bob and pont alexandre and at fishers cross and long run for a place on the machine the ones i shall be getting stuck right into.
 
Fascinating posts guys.

Euro, we're polar opposities then as I've had a dreadful year, lost nearly every Saturday etc, mind you it is just my hobby, I don't bet for a living by any stretch of the imagination.

I have done quite well by my standards at this meeting the last few years though, and so hoping to make some profit this time, hope is the operative word though.

Fonz, yeah I like Loch Ba aswell, we might both be on that one.

Desert, appreciate your thoughts, very interesting.
 
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The only thing I was confident about last season was that Sprinter Sacre would win the Arkle the worry was would I be able to get enough on him :)

much the same this year but no huge amount riding on him unfortunately.

I am finding it difficult to be confident about Tuesdays racing. The Champion Hurdle could go to any one of 6 horses and even MTOY could lose. I certainly am nor as confident as some on his chances.

Overturn Simonsig, Simonsig Overturn it's a bit like that, but I'm confident if Overturn wins my Cheltenham will be bought and paid for there and then and if placed I would just about break even on the day but Confident he'll win? NO way.

The one horse I am confident will win is Far West I really think he's the best PN has ever had with regards to hurdling. The way he went from almost stopping with Ruby at Cheltenham then picked up and took off was what really impressed me and the horse he left in his wake that day is no mug. He's a helluva horse this one.

Jonjo is very confident that his will win the Neptune but although I've backed him I'm not at all confident he's right.

Over all I am about 25% confident I might come out winning and I'd be happy if I was winning more than I have on Far West on the final day and I could clear my feet if he was beaten
 
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Sounds as if I am in a similar position to Eurynomous.

I have had a few good years in a row, thanks mainly to success in the non-handicaps. Last year yielded:-

Sprinter Sacre 7/1 twice (returned 8/11)
Simonsig 20/1 (2/1)
Bobs Worth 10/1 (9/2)
Sir Des Champs 12/1 (3/1)
Brindisi Breeze 12/1 (7/1)
Synchronised 12/1 (8/1)
Salsify 12/1 (7/1)

That shows how the market can sometimes work in your favour but also how important it is to get the horses in the right races. Unfortunately, I went a long way to ruining what should have been an exceptional year by going in too short on Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe. Don't think they have lost a race since but it's what happens on the day that counts.

Confidence is pretty low this year with so many non-runners, several of which are pretty infuriating but you have to take the downs with the ups. I have a few chances left but there is nothing to quite match the chances of Sprinter Scare, Simonsig and Sir Des Champs.

Tuesday is by far my worst punting day of the week. Just checked back and Sprinter Sacre is my only winner over at least the last four years. Disappointing because it leaves you playing catch-up for the rest of the week.

This year the handicaps are as tricky as ever but this time several of the non-handicaps are either very open or just no-bet races - Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle and Ryanair.

It's still the greatest meeting whatever - but a few winners can make it that bit better.

Good luck to all.
 
Ante post has kicked me in the nuts a bit thus year.it all hinges on dynaste target,backed it singly and doubly in the rsa so it looks like I'm on the back foot from the start so I have started doubting the way I look at things.The cagey ness of the trainers has annoyed me more than anything.Im balls deep into sprinter sacre at evens and pont alexandre at 7/2,any other year I'd keep backing PA but I'm going to see how Grandouet overturn and jezki fair on Tuesday.coneygree is a blow today,didnt know until I read it on here now.If. I get a couple winners Tuesday my confidence will be up and maybe have some bombs to throw when I'm there Wednesday.
 
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Bad luck with Dynaste, the Racing Post just confirmed the news you dreaded.

Some may remember under my old username Marble I was all over this horse last year, especially for the World Hurdle where he ran poorly.

Hence I nearly backed him this year before his first run over fences at big prices for the RSA.

I wonder if putting on all these extra races and making it a 4 day meeting is helping or hindering punters.

I'm sure there's other examples this year of horses avoiding the traditional races that people have backed them for anti-post and going for the new races instead. It makes it more tricky anti-post thats for sure.:(
 
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Personally, I like the extra novice events but could easily do without the Cross Country and Mares Hurdle which both come on that difficult first day.

I only ever back a horse where I think it should end up. Hopefully, the owner/trainer will fall in line. Clearly with what I believe to be a horrendous decision in respect of Champagne Fever I will be thinking twice about ever supporting a Mullins/Ricci horse ante-post again.
 
I used to bet in nearly every race. Since they expanded to 4 days I tend to give some races a miss. The X-Country does nothing for me. I'm not keen on the mares' race and the presence of Quevega has made it a non-betting race lately. The conditionals' and amateurs' handicaps hold little appeal although I usually still go through the form. I'm happy not to have a bet in the bumper if I don't fancy anything.

I might double up favs on the same card if I fancy them strongly enough instead of singles otherwise I can let the race go.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Do most of you have a bet in every race at the Festival?
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I will generally bet in every race, but if I have live ante-post bets going for me, I'll not have a bet on the day

If I'm struggling in the handicaps, I'll usually limit stakes to combination FCs/TCs, with perhaps a very modest single on something. And if there is an odds-on jolly, I'll usually have a modest each-way bet on something else, unless I'm super-strong on the favourite (in which case it's Tora! Tora! Tora! :D)

You couldn't buy a decent cigar with my usual stake in the Cross-Country.

:cool:
 
When I saw the title of this thread I expected it was about Ernie's rather arrogant and self assured younger brother.
 
Euronymous said:
Why don't you bet DG?
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Never have really, too busy doing other things. I just like racing as a sport and because my work puts me in contact with a lot of the stables, and because I've got to know a lot of the people involved ( not jockeys) it makes it even more fascinating. Also a bit of an amateur photographer.
 
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