Constitution Hill

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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He's back in and his summer holidays are over.

His schooling can't be far away.

The chances he won't take to fencing the way he accurately jumps hurdles are 100/1.


It's no big deal for an experience normal sized hurdler.

You show you point take hold and the horse virually does the rest...they aint stupid.

So I sk has this schooling session got anything to do with where he goes unless its a catastrophy? I have my doubts I reckon they are 90% sure what they are doing already
 
The next couple of seasons are certainly going to be interesting. You also wonder at what distance CH will race in his chasing career: will he stick to 2 miles, like Sprinter Sacre and Altior, or does Henderson expand his ambitions, by racing CH over 3 miles plus?

The big one for me is seeing his official rating climb. Rated 177p right now obviously hints that he’s the best hurdler ever, but others - the multiple winners - are ahead of him. What’s his ceiling as a chaser, and at what distance does he achieve that ceiling? I really want him to be a great champion, and realistically, the greatest are found at 3 miles plus. But of course, connections have the final say.

Is there any word on any of this, Tanlic?
 
Michael Buckley is pretty adamant that if he does go chasing his target will be the Gold Cup and Nicky has said he believes he would get 3 miles easily.

As for being the highest rated of all time the problem is having another horse to take you there. Night Nurse had multiple winners Monksfield and Birds Nest to give him the needed boost by beating them.

As long as Arkle remains on that ridiculous 121 then when a better horse comes along he will find it impossible to reach the highest rated of all time.

Finding a horse 25lbs better than Sprinter or Kauto is fairy story stuff.

Never mind Arkle failed to give 20lbs to a virtual novice who would have beaten him hands down but for a bad blunder at the last.

Result:-
1. Flying Wild (jumped well; with leaders from 11th; led approaching last; headed; soon ld; just held on)
2. Buona Notte (looked and jumped well; headway from 10th; cantering and slight lead last; blundered badly on landing; ran on well flat)
3. Arkle (jumped well; always prominent; led approaching 6th; led 13th until approaching last; rallied near finish)
4. Scottish Memories

Distances:- sh;1;2;15

Michael and Nicky's agaes may swing them toward chasing the dream and go chasing.....none of them are getting any younger

I wouldn't want to sit around and wait till 2026 to see if he can win a 4th Champion Hurdle when he could be going for a King George in 2024 and a Gold Cup a few months later
 
No harming debating or speculating what might happen.

Post-York, we're in a lull with the odd spike on interest via the Ayr Gold Cup and Cambridgeshire as far as the Flat is concerned.

As I've said before, I have no problem with Arkle's 212, its being representative of its best performances, but I do understand people's unwillingness to accept it.

It's very easy to undervalue form - Mostahdaf has shown that in his last two runs (and people are still crabbing him/the form) - and just as easy to overvalue it (which I know I've been guilty of doing).

I recall being gobsmacked by Golden Cygnet as a novice but I suspect CH is considerably better still. Do I want him to stay hurdling or go chasing? I really don't know.

I'd love to see him come put and post the highest ratings ever recorded for a hurdler then go and see what kind of inroads he can make on Arkle's.

(Off the top of my head, I can't recall my highest ever figures for Kauto, Sprinter or Dessie and threw out all my old stuff when I moved house but I think Kauto was, on my figures, mid-high 180s, Sprinter low-mid 190s and Dessie mid 190s. I don't intend for those to spark another 'don't talk shite' debate, they're just my figures, but do I think Arkle could give Dessie the weight? I'm not sure because Dessie carried big weights in handicaps. Would Arkle beat Dessie over 3m at Sandown at levels? For me, he'd do so on the bridle.)

But back to Constitution Hill...
 
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I don't mean to end discussion (in event it is taken that way) but I guess he stays hurdling meaning all last years great novices will go chasing by default
 
I Hadn't thought about that, granger, but you've got a point. Plans for the season for other novice hurdlers - or even older ones - might be about avoiding him.
 
Willie confirmed State Man will continue over hurdles post Punchestown.
And connections of Impaire et Passe have said the same.

So they'll both be taking on Constitution Hill.
 
Athletes like Usain Bolt have to stick at distances they do best at. CH has nothing left to prove hurdling . TF figures probably don't take in the overwatering or variations put in. He has the potential to be the best, it is possible he won't take to chasing but surely they have to try him and go straight for the big ones.
 
granger said:
The Supreme and Neptune winner and last years CH runner up will all probably go fencing to avoid him
Click to expand...

If you are right then the chances of him becoming the GOAT hurdler are greatly reduced unless it can be proven Impaire Et Passe and just to reach is a much better hurdler than State Man and he kicks him into touch.

Impaire Et Passe is rated 160 and just to reach State Man's 167 plus he's going to have to beat him easily or something like Honeysuckle hands down and horses like those don't grow on trees.

The lack of serious competition is a reason why I think hurdling could be a waste of time if Michael Buckley wants Constiution Hill to be immortalized.
 
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Whether he can jump fences as efficiently as he flicks over hurdles is maybe the first question to be answered, followed by whether he can get three miles. For me, I just want to enjoy him at his pomp in the sort of races that best suit him. I certainly don’t want to see him clambering with difficulty over fences or struggling to go the Gold Cup distance even if he wins. I can’t think they won’t want to see him try, though.
 
AP said Binocular was the fastest jumper of a hurdle he ever rode. He used to ping his hurdle with nothing to spare

Constitution Hill doesn't ping his hurdles like him he measures them and jumps them and for the most part while in cruise control doesn't even touch his hurdles.

He has made 2 mistakes in his life, a bad one as a baby in a p2p and he got the 2nd last wrong at Kempton then jumped the last like a buck.

Not a bad sign that he's a quick learner and the way he measures and jumps his hurdles fences wouldn't be a problem imo.

I think they will be 80% decided what they are going to do already and the schooling will just cement it one way or the other.
 
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I for one will be very surprised if he doesn't stay hurdling. I suspect Henderson made the decision a long time ago. There's nothing new come out for some time, but the vibes have been that way for two to three months now.

I doubt for one second that Henderson or those very close to him would say absolutely nothing about the way there leaning to anyone, and people with information always find it impossible not to at least drop hints.

Bookmakers track accounts and watch out for any 'meaningful' activity, and will adjust books accordingly with horses they could easily be exposed to. Why wouldn't they. And there's definitely been a clear shift on the Constitution Hill price for the Champion Hurdle, and he's been pushed out for everything else.

I also thought it was interesting that Barry Connell originally said he'd go where Constitution Hill wasn't, and then a month ago he came out very bullish about going novice chasing. Others have made similar noises.

Also it would be usual to school a horse like Constitution Hill before he goes on his holidays, not when he comes back. I know Henderson has typically done that in the past. So why not do that this time, unless he's trying to bring Buckley round to his way of thinking by delaying it. That way he gets the summer to work on him.

I think whatever may be said publicly about a decision after he's schooled, the decision is already made, and I suspect it was made late June / early July.
 
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Henderson told the PA news agency: “The news on Constitution Hill is that after a lot of deliberating and a lot of advice from everybody in the world, because everybody wants a piece of this, he is going to stay over hurdles.“At the end of the day I don’t think it was the hardest decision I’ve ever made. People will ask if we’ve schooled him over fences and why have we come to this decision.


“He would jump fences with his eyes shut, if we wanted him to, but the basis of the decision was we had to be 100 per cent sure that he would stay three and a quarter miles (in the Gold Cup).
“There was nothing to be gained by switching to fences by running in an Arkle, Champion Chase and possibly a Ryanair, great races though they are, but the Champion Hurdle is the Champion Hurdle, so if you are going to run in anything you might as well stick to what you know.
“I dare say there will be plenty of people saying this is unimaginative, but there was no doubt in Nico’s (De Boinville) mind, stamina was likely to be a major issue and the only point in doing it was if one felt he could become a Gold Cup horse.”
“For all three of us the decision was unanimous. You might say why did it take three months, but we all felt it was the right decision.”
Click to expand...
 
The thrilling prospect of the Fighting Fifth 1/12, three runners and the Christmas Hurdle 1/10, four runners will warm me through the winter. I'm sure Leopardstown and Punchestown will be as welcome to NH as a fart in a space suit.
 
Absolutely Tiggers. Nicky has robbed punters of what could have been the most exciting season ever.

4/9 already and if the mullins pair go elsewhere he'll be 1/12.

Even if he wins 3 Champion Hurdle there's no Monksfield out there that would justify him ousting Night Nurse as GOAT.
 
Wasn't it only towards the end of last season that Hendo was saying he thought CH would stay the Gold Cup trip standing his head [owtte]?

I'm presuming they've worked him and/or done some dynamic testing on him and worked out he won't.

The mention of the Ryanair in the longer term suggests they think he might not stay sharp enough in due course at two miles over fences so why should he do so over hurdles?

I don't see the point of his staying over hurdles to dawdle round beating donkeys - anything of any note will go chasing now to avoid him - and I'd love to see him pushed to a very high rating.

He could win the FF and the CH and stay still on the ratings. If so, I'd love to see him try and win the Schweppes off top weight, which I think he probably would do. That would get him a 'proper' rating.

He could make some contests pretty boring but there will always be the ITV crew hyping up every appearance.
 
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I think he mentioned the Ryanair in the context of not worth going for - “There was nothing to be gained by switching to fences by running in an Arkle, Champion Chase and possibly a Ryanair, great races though they are, but the Champion Hurdle is the Champion Hurdle, so if you are going to run in anything you might as well stick to what you know”.

It seems be Nico who doubts him getting the Gold Cup trip - my heart says I’d like to see him try, my head says maybe not.
 
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