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Coolmore and the 2,000 Guineas

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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Q: What do the last six winners of the 2,000 Guineas have in common?

A: They weren't trained by Aidan O'Brien.

Q: What do the three 2,000 Guineas winners prior to that have in common?

A: They were trained by Aidan O'Brien.

Back in the 1970s, Vincent O'Brien 2yos became insanely-short winter favourites for the 2,000 Guineas, Try My Best being the most notable.

Then in 1983 El Gran Senor was a more reasonable 8/1 after beating Rainbow Quest in the Dewhurst.

Betting markets are sometimes like that - they can overreact to recent success and they can overreact to recent failure.

There is a theory doing the rounds that Coolmore don't care about the 2,000 Guineas any more - I struggle with that notion because, in the modern era, the precocity to win the 2,000 Guineas at a mile seems to me to have more commercial relevance than the ability to win The Derby at 1m4f, as evidenced by the fact that, after winning The Derby, Australia, Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy, were all eventually dropped in trip.

So what does everyone think?

Does anyone who bets a Ballydoyle 2yo for next year's 2,000 Guineas want carting off to Okehampton Funny Farm (old Goodies joke) or are Coolmore going to bounce back at Newmarket on the first Saturday in May when some least expect it?
 
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Here is a detailed summary of the last 10 winners.

2025 – Bag of Shite

2024 – Bag of Shite

2023 – Bag of Shite

2022 – Bag of Shite

2021 – Bag of Shite

2020 – Bag of Shite

2019 – Bag of Shite

2018 – Bag of Shite

2017 – Bag of Shite

2016 – Bag of Shite
 
I'm not gonna lie, such are the exemplary standards I have come to expect from you, I was hoping for something a little more extensive, hence I'm left somewhat crestfallen.

Funny, though.
 
The 2000G has also been called the last big 2yo race and maybe that's how Coolmore see it?

They seem happy enough to have something to win what are arguably bigger G1 mile race later in the season, eg the Sussex, because they are all-age races.
 
If Coolmore now regard the 2,000 Guineas as the last big 2yo race of the previous season (as, yes, the saying goes) then I'd have thought they'd still like to win it just as much as they like to win races like the National Stakes, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere or the Dewhurst.

But thank you for your thoughts, though, Maurice - I can see where you're coming from on this, for sure.
 
My mate Paddy describes the 2000 Gns as the last juvenile race.
Looking at Aiden's winners , those that won disappointed as sires in so far as their fees stayed constant or reduced over time.
A Guineas winner whose juveniles are not precocious enough are a toxic brand economically.
Others that were too hyped may have burned their brains in preparation for the race.
Going fluctuations, wet spring in Tipperary vs dry Newmarket spring may have contributed to their putting the race on the back burner, for now at least.
 
I’d put this to you: name the last great—actually, good will do—sire that the 2000 Guineas has produced?

The game evolves, and Coolmore constantly change their tactics, led more by Aidan O’Brien than “the lads” these days.

There was a time they wanted all their good horses to go unbeaten. They’d be drilled for their debut and punted as such. That idea is laughable now. They improve a stone for their introduction.

The 2000 Guineas just doesn’t fit how they train horses anymore. It’s all about the season—building a big CV in late summer and autumn—not the short-term dopamine hit of beating horses that’ll be run over for the rest of the year.

They’d rather now run horses in races like the Madrid Handicap or the Gladness Stakes and see where they are. Unless they start giving one a proper prep for the Guineas, I wouldn’t want to back any of theirs ante post. No doubt they'll win one, but it’ll be down to pure ability—not because they produced the horse at its peak on the day.
 
This isn't the first 'hot take' I've come across that Italy is some sort of dark horse:

Italy is one to note despite being beaten

THERE were 12 races live on ITV from Newmarket, York and Ascot on what is traditionally known as ‘Super’ Saturday and on such a busy day it’s so easy to miss potential tracker horses. So, I thought I’d share a few who caught my eye.

We’ll start with the obvious at Newmarket. The Superlative Stakes saw the Godolphin-owned Saba Desert beat the Aidan O’Brien-trained Italy who, despite failing to justify strong market support, is a must on any tracker.

He’d already caught my attention when overcoming clear signs of greenness to win a 7f maiden at Leopardstown in May.

He took his time to hit top gear that day but absolutely roared home, clocking a couple of fast closing furlongs to run down subsequent Chesham runner-up Thesecretadversary.

Not a lot went right for Italy on Saturday, as he was lit up early without cover on the far side of the group and was carried left by the eventual fourth.

He did well in the circumstances for second.

A big, powerful-looking son of Wootton Bassett out of a Listed-winning sister to Derby winner Serpentine, he’s related to several useful winners from a mile to 1m4f and already looks like he wants further.

He’s evidently held in high regard and odds of 16-1 for next year’s Derby appeal more than similar odds for the 2,000 Guineas.
 


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