Looking yet again at the form and trying to get into the heads of the handicappers, it may well be that they're taking a conservative view of the Brigadier Gerard and working from there.
RPRs for that race were as follows:
CDT 115 (1lb below its OR and 4lbs below its Arc RPR)
Conduit 121 (1lb below its St Leger RPR, 4lbs below its OR and 6lbs below its BC RPR)
Stotsfold 112+ (4lbs below its OR and 7lbs below its end of season RPR)
Drumfire 111 (7lbs above its OR and the same as its previous best RPR)
Pipedreamer 111 (6lbs below its OR and 9lbs below its previous best RPR)
Staying On 110 (same as OR; same as previous best RPR)
Steele Tango 109 (1lb below OR; 4lbs below previous best RPR achieved in the same race as Pipedreamer's best RPR)
It looks like they've rated the race via Drumfire and Staying On, therefore concluding the others weren't at their best.
This is interesting because my time rating for CDT in the Brigadier Gerard was 109, not far off what it should have been, and the Raceform speed ratings had it bang on par at 113, so it can’t really be considered a falsely run race, therefore there aren't particularly strong grounds for believing the others were below par.
Taking Conduit as 121 brings the figures down by 7lbs, putting STS on 131+. The problem I have with that is that it doesn’t allow for any improvement from Conduit from its seasonal debut when some good judges claimed it looked as though it would come on for the run and was reportedly coltish beforehand. Another problem is that it means CDT has gone backwards by 3lbs and the others by much more. Stotsfold has come out and won in France while Drumfire has been beaten when upped in trip and held up in a slow race. Pipedreamer and Staying On have still to race again.
It still all points to a conservative figure for the winner in my view but I’m coming round to the idea that my own figures may be a tad high.
Another thought:
When time ratings fail to match form ratings and lesser horses have run apparently in advance of expectations, I tend to be wary of the higher ratings for the latter and work on the assumption that a race within a race took place. That is, that the lesser horses have run their own races relative to each other while the better ones have done likewise but at a slower speed. Just another angle...
