Now that the form book instalment has come in, I’ve gone back to the race with a blank sheet, a fresh mind and started again.
I didn’t have the times of the last two races on Saturday when I did my figures. Now that I’ve done all the races I’ve found the going to be faster again than I’d thought and the time rating for Sea The Stars has come down to 119 (+11 wfa), which is still very fast.
I went back to the Brigadier Gerard and looked at that race again too. I had originally marked ‘+3’ above the ratings column based on my previous figures of 112 for Steele Tango (from the Gordon Richards over course and distance, won by no less than Tartan Bearer from Pipedreamer), form that seemed pretty solid, including using lines with Buccellati.
I had carried the 112 from Steele Tango into the Brigadier Gerard along with Cima De Triomphe’s best rating from last season (118). It also had Staying On running to the 113 for which a case could be made via Doctor Feemantle running to its OR 113 at Chester. Looking back, that was a very slow race and probably shouldn’t be taken literally. Those lines seemed to tie up nicely but it did mean Drumfire running to 114 first time up compared with a previous best RPR of 111. Drumfire’s subsequent outing was over 12f, a trip he’d never tried, and he was held up off a moderate pace, so lines via him are inconclusive.
Removing the ‘+3’ from the Brigadier Gerard pegs Steele Tango back at 109, one pound below its OR, pegs Conduit back at 121, well below its US win, and pegs Cima De Triomphe down 3lbs on my best rating for it from last season.
Rating the Eclipse via Steele Tango on 109 puts Cima De Triomphe back up by one pound to 116, and brings Conduit up to 125, still below its US win (on RPRs).
This still puts Rip on 133 and Sea The Stars on 135+, and I’m going to go with these figures for the time being but it will always be in the back of my mind that there’s a fair case for arguing that the figures should all be 3lbs higher.
