Coral Marathon - Sandown Saturday - an odds compiling exercise

rorydelargy

rorydelargy

At the Start
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I've done the write up for this race in the Timeform Free racecard and was surprised to find how at odds I was (no pun intended) with the Sporting Life (there'll be nothing from the Post until tonight). Here are the contrasting verdicts. I'd be interested in hearing the thoughts of others. I admit this is a bit of a vanity exercise on my behalf but thought it might make an interesting discussion. The forecast prices for BF are to around 102% so shouldn't be like for like with the Life and they don't necessarily reflect my original tissue which I've also included.

Sporting Life:

VERDICT:
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE had an awful lot to do last time and whilst this won't be easy under his penalty he is fancied to see off Opinion Poll and Manighar in a competitive renewal. William Knight's stable star has looked a different horse this year since stepping up in trip. Once known as just a Goodwood specialist his win at Ascot and his solid run here last time set him aside as a major candidate today. Aajel was second to him in April before flopping at York when well-fancied. He bounced back in the Queen Alexandra Stakes last time when runner-up to Bergo and this strong-stayer should not be given an easy lead. King Of Wands is better than his two Goodwood runs and his beating of Tactic at Ripon in April reads well, as does Opinion Poll's progression this year when trying trips that test his stamina. He gets one today and is hard to ignore. Manighar holds a few of these on his (distant) second to Holberg at Goodwood but it's his third to Ask at Longchamp when in the care of Alain De Royer-Dupre last year that makes him stand out. Ringaroses is a solid chaser but will struggle here in all likelihood, whilst Petara Bay should relish the step back up in trip this afternoon. Samuel needs a market check as this Sakhee gelding returns from 728 days on the sidelines; it's interesting that connections have kept faith and he cannot be dismissed on this first run for John Gosden. Interesting fayre then, but the vote goes to Illustrious Blue.

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Opinion Poll (IRE), 3/1 Manighar (FR), 5/1 Aajel (USA), 7/1 Illustrious Blue, 7/1 King of Wands, 10/1 Petara Bay (IRE), 10/1 Samuel, 20/1 Ringaroses



Timeform:

Illustrious Blue: Been a grand servant over the years and landed Sagaro Stakes at Ascot in April, but that wasn't the strongest Group 3 and he looks set to struggle here giving weight all round.
Opinion Poll (IRE): Progressive stayer who split Manighar and King of Wands at Goodwood last month, and didn't have to improve to win 15f listed race at Chantilly since. Suspicion is he needs some give in the ground.
Aajel (USA): Close second to Illustrious Blue in Sagaro Stakes and weighted to reverse that form. Bounced back from a poor run when filling the same position in the Queen Alexandra, making running as usual.
King Of Wands: A winner 4 times but again found out at this level when behind Manighar and Opinion Poll last time. Step up in trip could bring improvement, but hard to see him turning that round.
Manighar (FR): Progressive at 3 yrs in France, winning 6 times including at Group 2 level. Meets both Opinion Poll and King of Wands on 9 lb better terms than at Goodwood last month and looks the one to beat.
Petara Bay (IRE): Back from a lengthy absence to be placed in listed race at Newbury in May. Tough task last time in Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, and return to 2m promises to suit.
Ringaroses: Useful hurdler/chaser who made a promising Flat debut when eighth in Queen Alexandra Stakes, but not sure to be suited by this shorter trip and now faces stronger opposition.
Samuel: Progressive performer for John Dunlop in 2008 when narrowly beaten in this contest. Not seen since and stable jockey is on King of Wands but had so little racing there could yet be more to come.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Manighar (FR) 2. Aajel (USA) 3. Samuel

Timeform View:
With doubts about Opinion Poll on the ground, Manighar could well take this en route to a Melbourne Cup bid. Aajel could get the run of the race from the front and makes each-way appeal, while Samuel hasn't been seen since coming second in this race in 2008 but would be a major player if fully wound up on his debut for John Gosden.

Betfair betting forecast
2.62 Manighar (FR), 5 Opinion Poll (IRE), 9 Aajel (USA), 9.6 King Of Wands , 12 Samuel , 15 Petara Bay (IRE), 17 Illustrious Blue , 29 Ringaroses

Rory's initial tissue: 1.91 Manighar (FR), 9 Opinion Poll (IRE), 12 Aajel (USA), 13 King Of Wands , 14 Samuel , 15 Petara Bay (IRE), 19 Illustrious Blue , 40 Ringaroses
 
Just as a matter of interest, my automated odds-from-weighted-ratings came up with the following:

2.6 Manighar, 6.2 Opinion Poll, 7.8 King of Wands, 9.4 Petara Bay, 12.5 Illustrious Blue, 14 Samuel, 20 Aajel, 42 Ringaroses.

Though I had to cheat with Samuel, who has not run since 2008.

Aajel would have been a good deal shorter but for that blob at York two starts ago, which affects recency and consistency, and the degree to which you do or do not ignore that can still be a subjective exercise.
 
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Excellent stuff Pru - thanks for that.

FWIW, I've deliberately gone bigger on Opinion Poll as he's clearly better suited to softish ground (he was taken out of the Henry II on forecast gd/fm earlier in the season and missed the Gold Cup to go to France, so connections clearly think so too). He should be much shorter on ratings but I wanted to have him only marginally so for that reason. I suspect he may well be a non-runner anyway.
 
Interesting. My 100% backers tissue reads

2/1 Manighar
10/3 Opinion Poll
9/1 Aajel, King of Wands
10/1 Samuel
14/1 Illustrious Blue, Petara Bay
80/1 Ringaroses
 
MANIGHAR (FR) 3.0
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 4.4
SAMUEL 4.4
OPINION POLL (IRE) 5.9
KING OF WANDS 7.7
AAJEL (USA) 9.2
RINGAROSES 13.9
PETARA BAY (IRE) 18.1

Overound 110%

Based on Distance, Turf and A/W and best performance ( as oppose to
last 3 runs ).
 
As with Man Of Iron last week, the question for me is whether tomorrow is the target for Manighar. He's the best horse in the race - no question - and weighted to win comfortably but is he 'off'? Is the Ebor the target? The Melbourne Cup? (At the moment, his OR is just about on the money so any handicap strikes me as being out for the time being.)

I won't be touching the race with the proverbial.
 
I doubt tomorrow is the target for him Dessie - I remember the horse running in France last year and have followed him very closely since, in fact was told he'd been sold to race on in Australia with the Melbourne Cup the target. Given connections I'd imagine that's still the target for him. As for tomorrow his best runs have been with cut in the ground (good to soft G3 win over Los Cristianos, 2nd to Wajir in the same grade and the run behind Ask and co on soft as a 3yo taking on older horses) but the step up in trip will most definitely suit him compared to Goodwood and he's the one they have to beat.

Illustrious Blue was given more than enough to do by Jim Crowley last time out but has a good record at Sandown and is unexposed racing over marathon trips, though it'll be a tough task conceding weight all round I wouldn't mind taking some 12/1 or so each-way about the horse.
 
LUKE said:
You appear to have put a decimal point in the Ringaroses quote by mistake.
Click to expand...

RINGAROSES 0.3
KING OF WANDS 12.0
MANIGHAR (FR) 12.2
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE 16.0
OPINION POLL (IRE) 18.0
SAMUEL 18.3
PETARA BAY (IRE) 18.6
AAJEL (USA) 21.1

Overound 118%

Based on best lifetime performance, Turf and A/W.


Jonjo O'Neill
Cheltenham

Vital Stats Runs 1st 2nd 3rd Win % To £1 Level Stake
Last 14 Days (UK) 19 8 3 2 42.11% £29.35 :p
 
Desert Orchid said:
As with Man Of Iron last week, the question for me is whether tomorrow is the target for Manighar. He's the best horse in the race - no question - and weighted to win comfortably but is he 'off'? Is the Ebor the target? The Melbourne Cup? (At the moment, his OR is just about on the money so any handicap strikes me as being out for the time being.)

I won't be touching the race with the proverbial.
Click to expand...

Can anyone give me a logical reason why Manighar wouldn't be a trier tomorrow (without making themselves look daft, obviously).
 
rorydelargy said:
Can anyone give me a logical reason why Manighar wouldn't be a trier tomorrow (without making themselves look daft, obviously).
Click to expand...
I thought I did. (Maybe failed on the second count.)

He's also a Linamix, so there might be a limit on how many times he'll let himself down on fast ground.

He's trained by a master when it comes to targeting specific races. If this isn't on the agenda, for whatever reason, it's reason enough.

It's one of those races I end up asking myself is it worth backing at the price or can I oppose it with anything else. The answer is no so I probably won't even watch the race. (Don't think I can anyway as it isn't on terrestrial tv, so I don't mind letting it go.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought I did. (Maybe failed on the second count.)

He's also a Linamix, so there might be a limit on how many times he'll let himself down on fast ground.

He's trained by a master when it comes to targeting specific races. If this isn't on the agenda, for whatever reason, it's reason enough.

It's one of those races I end up asking myself is it worth backing at the price or can I oppose it with anything else. The answer is no so I probably won't even watch the race. (Don't think I can anyway as it isn't on terrestrial tv, so I don't mind letting it go.)
Click to expand...
I've no issue with anyone who doesn't want to back the jolly - he is pretty short after all - but the idea that he won't be "off" needs to be addressed. He may be coming to a peak for a bigger target which isn't the same thing, but then we would expect a master trainer to improve him gradually through the season. If that were the case then the race he would have been least wound up for was the listed race at Goodwood where he was 2nd last time, wouldn't it? He certainly won't be having a quiet run in the quest for a handicap mark as he's already won a Group 2 ad pretending that he isn't up to winning a Listed contest (in receipt of weight from officially inferior rivals to boot) isn't likely to fool the international assessor!
 
I dont think Manighar is being targeted the Ebor, he is in an OR 114 and would need to be a gr1 horse to have a chance in that mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is it down to our interpretation of 'off'?

For me, if he doesn't win today he's not off.
Click to expand...
I thought "not off" had a very, very specific meaning. I'm disappointed you didn't contribute to the thread in a more meaningful way given you are the forum's ratings and time guru. It would have made for a potentially interesting discussion about a subject that is often joked about but rarely tackled seriously. Personally, I love your cheeky aftertiming, but some people think it lacks gravitas.

:)
 
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J Alfred Prufrock said:
Petara Bay a NR

Pro-rata odds:

2.34 Manighar, 5.6 Opinion Poll, 7 King of Wands, 11 Illustrious Blue, 12.5 Samuel, 18 Aajel, 38 Ringaroses
Click to expand...
Are you inclined to adjust the automated odds for personal opinion Pru, or do you like to keep them as a "normal" expectation of the outcome with which to draw conclusions afterwards?
 
I don't think it's a question of whether they're saving the horse for another day but more whether he'll be 100% wound up for todays race. With his OR I doubt they'd look at the Ebor though something like the Irish Leger if he's progressed as expected (hard to tell from one staying on run over an inadequate trip) could be within his grasp prior to a trip down under.

OTI Racing aren't having much look in their Melbourne Cup quest at the moment (admittedly Manighar is part-owned by Earle Mack) given the two runs of Becqu Adoree for Cumani thus far this year so I'd imagine they aren't too keen on any more disappointing runs.
 
rorydelargy said:
I thought "not off" had a very, very specific meaning. I'm disappointed you didn't contribute to the thread in a more meaningful way given you are the forum's ratings and time guru. It would have made for a potentially interesting discussion about a subject that is often joked about but rarely tackled seriously. Personally, I love your cheeky aftertiming, but some people think it lacks gravitas.

:)
Click to expand...
I knew they'd say that :)

Re the other comments... where to start...

In my opinion, if a horse should win and doesn't and I can't pin down a reason for it, I assume they just didn't want it to win. It might have run a close second or third or not be beaten far (as many of a certain trainer's do) but still not be 'off' (imo).

When I saw the thread I really did want to contribute to it but since it seemed specifically about odds-compiling, I'd have needed to do the ratings yesterday when I was too busy winning money on the quarter-finals and Murray losing in straight sets :):)

I don't consider myself the forum's ratings and time guru. I'd be rather flattered if I were. I just like to contribute my own thoughts when appropriate (or even inappropriate).

Swirly Chaser once sent me a spreadsheet into which I could type my ratings and it would come up with odds but it didn't cover enough of the variables for my liking. If I can track it down I'll see what it comes up with.
 
Given his chance on adjusted figures, the jolly could win this and not affect his rating.

At the prices though, I have to side against him despite suggesting on timeform radio that he'd take all the beating. It could be immaterial if they take him out, but I just don't think he's 6 times at likely to win as Opinion Poll.
 
I agree with DJ's opening comment, btw.

Here's what the calculator came up with using RPRs (I didn't rate the race myself as it doesn't float my boat and isn't on TV):

Manighar 1.5
Opinion Poll 4.1 (backs up DJ's opinion)
King Of Wands 5
Aajel 7.1
Illustrious Blue 12.5
Samuel 39.6
Ringaroses 100
 
It's the ground issue that is causing the disparity and why any automatic rating to odds converter will always have Opinion Poll much closer to Manighar than his current odds. Opinion Poll's best form has come on heavy, can he reproduce it under these faster circumstances, I don't know, but will take a punt at the 6/1.
 
davidjohnson said:
I just don't think he's 6 times at likely to win as Opinion Poll.
Click to expand...
Nor do I - I'd say 9 times more likely ;)

That's the beauty about odds as opposed to ratings calculations. It's very hard to justify giving a horse with a marginal ratings edge a much bigger odds chance, but that is very often the case. The horse most often underrated by "backing book" compilers is the favourite and it's something I constantly used to do and am trying to correct. I've always maintained that I'd rather back a horse who was 1 lb well in with no other question marks than back one with a stone in hand who had a suspicious profile.

I'd be very interested in seeing how the calculator Swirly Chaser used performed here - I've seen something similar where far too many factors were given weighting with the result that the whole book gets too compressed. Hopefully DO can dig it out.
 
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