I spent a lot of time over the last couple of days trying to get a handle on these cards.
I do think this 'super Saturday' malarkey is a bit of overkill. The July Meeting could easily slip back to midweek since a lot of people are already on holiday by mid-July.
Anyroads, that's a different discussion for a different day.
Here are my thoughts, written on Thursday and yesterday but they refer to my ratings tables which I can't be arsed to copy over because I don't like how they appear on here. I had anticipated having an awful lot of bets (because I usually do on this day) but it turns out I don't so I might at some point try and get a look at the opener at York since there are some old pals in it.
NWM 4.00 - This is a race in which the classier horses tend to do well so I’ve put those rated 99+ in bold green to help me sort the field. I’ve taken 28/1 (5pl) Bless Him. I suspect Spencer would have had the mount had he been available but Ghiani does well for the small number of trainers he rides for. Some horses tend to run well in it year after year. Bless Him won it two years ago off 2lbs higher, was beaten only 2½ lengths last year off another 2lbs higher and he’s probably been trained for it all year. Given the superb form of the yard, I have to go with Awaal as the main bet. He’s also in the International and the Golden Mile, both more valuable than this, but he’d only pick up a 3lbs penalty for either and might improve that much anyway. I’ll have a small win sickness insurance bet on Summerghand because he’ll either win or run into midfield with the Stewards’ Cup in mind. He’ll almost certainly get in at Goodwood off this mark. Shadwell have some nice horses running here and elsewhere so Crowley being here is probably a big tip for Mostabshir. He’ll be my other bet. I do fear Carrytheone but so do the bookies, giving nothing away at 5/1.
NWM 4.35 - I’ve been lamenting the older sprinters for a long time and when a second-rate Australian sprinter comes to Ascot and duffs them up it hammers it home. Art Power is good on his day but those days tend to come at the Curragh or Ascot. Vadream’s best form is with give but it’s drying out. I’m looking to the younger horses here. 3yos have the best overall record in the race and I can see Vandeek and Inisherin dominating this race. I can’t back both so will settle for Vandeek and hope for the best.
ASC 1.45 - The ten-year ‘card RPR’ range for winners of this race is 116-124 so this is a poor renewal. For that reason, I’m going to focus on the better ones, those rated 90+ and again I’ve highlighted them in bold green. It’s no coincidence that they dominate the ratings. They are entitled to outclass the others. I suspect Albasheer is targeting the Stewards’ Cup so will risk letting him go. That leaves Rohaan as the main bet, in fact the only bet.
ASC 2.20 - I suspect some of these might have other targets in mind and I think it’s a two-horse race between Sonny Liston and Quddwah. The two Quddwah beat last time, Docklands and Maljoom, went on replicate the form almost to the pound in the Queen Anne. He could well improve past Sonny Liston who brings top handicap form to the race. Quddwah is now too short to back and I can’t back Sonny Liston to beat him so I’m leaving the race alone.
York 2.35 - I’m going to let this race go. It’s all too tight.
York 3.10 - This renewal is more than up to scratch, the ‘card RPR’ of the top rated in recent years ranging from 117 to 126, so the likes of the bottom three in the table could in fact have been top rated in previous years. It’s such a hot race I’m going to look for something that can approach 130 on the scale. The candidates are Epic Poet, Haunted Dream, Killybegs Warrior, Liberty Lane and Enfjaar. I’m striking Killybegs Warrior out of the list because I reckon if it was seriously fancied one of the higher profile stable stalwarts would be riding (unless there’s a dastardly plan afoot to switch to a better jockey at some point). Not in the list but one I backed during the week is Kingfisher King at 33/1 because Haggas loves to try and win this race and he had eight in it leading up to the five-day decs. I wouldn’t normally associate the jockey with the stable but he is 2/2 for them this season. Marquand is at Ascot for a pretty full book of rides. The other Haggas runner is totally unexposed. He ran very well in the Sandown Derby Trial so could be a 110-115 horse waiting to happen. He disappointed last time dropped back to a mile but he’s bred for stamina so might improve again back up in distance. Again, the jockey tends not to ride for the stable but he does for a lot of the big Newmarket yards. I just wonder if they’re giving him a feel of the track ahead of training him for the Ebor, such is the depth of stamina in his dosage profile although there is no stride data to back up the theory. My short list above occupy four of the front five places in the betting so I can’t dutch them. I’m going to settle for Haunted Dream and Enfjaar against the field and hope for some luck.
York 3.45 - I can’t have Tashkhan at this short a trip so he’s out. Deauville Legend is dodgy so he’s out. This leaves Al Qareem with a handy advantage over some possible improvers but the price is worth a modest win bet.
annoyed i didnt do northern express on my yankee as it would be 3 placed not 2.