County Hurdle

fonz

fonz

At the Start
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Nov 5, 2012
Messages
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How important is the 140 rating stat to anybody else? And do we think it will be broken tomorrow?
 
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What's your pick in the race, Fonz? I take it you mean no horse has won with a rating less than 140? I'm watching the betting on Mohaayed. A good bit of market support would bode well. Fair play to Skelton for risking not running in the Supreme in order to try and make the cut for this.
 
Marble said:
What's your pick in the race, Fonz? I take it you mean no horse has won with a rating less than 140?
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The opposite Marble, Last 10 winneIrs have all been rated 139 or lower! And if you really like stats, 51 of the past 53 winners have carried less than 11st 2lb, which would rule the top 6 in the weights out (Again, if you like/believe the stats). However, I do think Arctic Fire was left in for Renneti's benefit. As previously discussed on here with Wilsonl I think, Renneti has been an obvious plot all season!

As posted on the other thread, Day 3 strongest bets, I'm strong on De Name Escapes me 25/1 e/w 6 places 1/5 (Skybet) & 33/1 e/w 5 places 1/4 (Boylesports)
 
I wouldn't set too much store by the stats even if they end up producing the winner. The race is a different beast altogether now from what it was even just half a dozen years ago. Only seriously well handicapped horses can win so anything from Arctic Fire to Mohaayed will have its chance depending on its true ability.
 
Arctic Fire was almost a Champion hurdler 8lb well in - cursing myself for being put off by Ruby riding the Ricci horse
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't set too much store by the stats even if they end up producing the winner. The race is a different beast altogether now from what it was even just half a dozen years ago. Only seriously well handicapped horses can win so anything from Arctic Fire to Mohaayed will have its chance depending on its true ability.
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That wasn't meant to be a tip for Arctic Fire, merely to illustrate that if it was well enough handicapped being rated over 140 or carrying more than 11-0 wouldn't stop it.
 
Ardross said:
Arctic Fire was almost a Champion hurdler 8lb well in - cursing myself for being put off by Ruby riding the Ricci horse
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Ditto...Back of your mind is "is he just there to boss the handicap", especially after returning from a injury absence. No claimer on aboard either.
 
I was amazed Ruby wasn't riding it which suggested they expected it would need the race - possibly he will come on for it as he would not have won off 166 but it was a terrific performance and a surprisingly cracking effort from the Hound of the Baskervilles in second .

The jockey on the runaway leader lost his head the horse actually plugged on up the run in ridden with a little more restraint it would have gone very close I reckon though that could be my 33-1 ew talking !
 
Euronymous said:
On his Supreme form from last year that's exactly what he was.
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Yes, that's what I thought.

I thought they were biding their time before going for next year's Champion Hurdle. I honestly thought he was probably a 160-165 horse running off 149. Arctic Fire's OR hit 169 and he won off 158.
 
Iv'e no doubt Harvey is a mid 160's horse, I just think it will come over further and over fences.
 
I also remembered after the event that Hendo had been talking about running L'Ami Serge in the Champion Hurdle this season. That's the class of this race.

(It's maybe no bad thing that I'd forgotten about that as it would have made it more difficult to decide which to reject from the long list. It might have been Ozzie!)
 
I've watched the race again several times.

In many ways Wakea made it and spoiled it.

Made it in the sense that he went just a tad too fast but it made the rest of them race honestly pace-wise without overdoing it (will be interesting to see what Simon Rowlands says) and spoiled it in the sense that it fvcked up the TV coverage as they had to go for the long-range camera shots which meant we couldn't really see how well or otherwise the rest were going through the race.

There might be silver linings to this cloud, though.

They weren't exactly strung out at the finish so the handicapper may well feel obliged to peg back whatever rise he might otherwise have given a winner of the race. For example, Superb Story was raised 7bs, Wicklow Brave 15lbs, Lac Fontana actually defied a 9lbs hike, Ted Veale went up about 8lbs and Alderwood went up 4lbs and won a Grade 2 novices' hurdle.

I suspect Arctic Fire will only go up 5lbs or so for today so I'd suggest that anything that was in the group ahead of the daylight back to the rest will be handicapped to win any £20k+ handicap hurdle in the coming weeks, months and year. There will be money to be made if my suspicion proves well founded.
 
Marble said:
What's your pick in the race, Fonz? I take it you mean no horse has won with a rating less than 140? I'm watching the betting on Mohaayed. A good bit of market support would bode well. Fair play to Skelton for risking not running in the Supreme in order to try and make the cut for this.
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He ran a nice race finishing 7th beaten 3 lengths in The County did Mohaayed. Only his fourth start over hurdles. He must be a horse to follow. Could prove to be a good'un.
 
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Regarding AF mark, I know Willie thanked the handicapper(several times post-race interviews) for giving him a chance by dropping half a stone or more. There was also Davy who offered his apologies to Phil Smith publicly on ITV after the handicap he won. But where are all the ones so called professionals like Racing Post and Kevin Blake for those **** articles they wrote which proved totally false regarding hammering Irish horses? I'm still waiting for their apologies just to prove they still have a spine.
 
Indeed Aughex, been made to look utter fools cashing in on sensationalism.

Followed Marble in with Mohaayed, agree, bright future. At a stroke it could have easily improved two or three places but for Skybet paying on six places
 
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