Cracking Listed race at Kempton tomorrow

EC1

EC1

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now this is what the AW is all about imo, a really classy listed race, makes a change from all them egg and spooners from over the water we normally get on a Sunday:cool:

so, I will get me dinner about 3 and then make a bit of cash on this I reckon

anyone have any fancies?

I would just ask...I require really detailed analysis ...no one word tips or you will be on the ignore list double quick ;)

I've only got mesen on my ignore list - I can't stand reading the tripe I post either
 
A listed race, but I'd stop short of calling it cracking as bar Premio Loco and Bonus, the rest look a bit below this standard. Conisdering Bonus struggles to win and goes over a trip for the first time that looks likely to stretch him, it's hard to see what circumstances will prevent Premio Loco winning. A winning of his C+D handicap form when winning the London Mile should be enough.
 
fair comment Jamie

I am just going to go and watch the documentary about "Nationwide" - the old news show - not the building society...older folk here will remember the show ..it's on at 9 and I have to get me tablets down before it or I can't focus properly and will probably have some kind of fit before I've seen it all.

I will then be in a position to post exactly why I think the fav is weak...you may not agree though :blink:

see you later
 
I'll look over it properly either later tonight or in the morning but at first glance, Samarinda is an absolutely absurd price. He got a terrible ride last time out and he loves Kempton.
 
Bonus is to me a frustrating horse who I always give credit to for having a bit more ability than he's willing to share, although he'll always hold fond memories for his win way back when with Hannon, at Lingfield on the grass, not for me tomorrow over the new trip, with a new jockey on board.

Councellor is 5lb worse off for a head beating with Orchard Supreme last time out and although he has form across the AW surfaces, I feel he'd have a better chance if it were at Southwell.

Mahadee is interesting in so much as he came back with a nice win after a break last time out, has form across the AW courses, but far better away from Kempton to date. Not for me.

Orchard Supreme was a well backed winner last time out, consistent like Bonus, but I have more of a feeling he puts it in, although whether tomorrows jockey is the one for helping him with that is another matter. Chances.

Philario has contested some decent contests in his career and has a win at this level to his name. Often backed, so watch the market, not for me tomorrow.

Premio Loco has a good CD record, although not at this level and is ridden by a jockey that does well here. Nice return after a break at Lingfield, set him up for this you'd imagine, likely winner.

Samarinda was a surprise CD winner and is liekly to run well for a stable going well at the moment, place prospects.

Shake on it - are they still giving appearance money for Sunday racing?!

Premio Loco to win from Orchard Supreme & Samarinda or Samarinda and Orchard Supreme!
 
Right then, not often you get Listed races on the AW so I'll make a fist of going through it.

Bonus
Consistent sort who is always in the frame over 6f and 7f. He's a notoriously difficult ride and needs to be produced late and fast. Chris Catlin is a good jockey booking and he's only been out of the places once at Kempton but there have to be serious reservations about him staying a mile. That said, he has class in abundance and whilst he's a difficult ride, he always seems to put the effort in and go through with his effort.

Councellor
Decent handicapper who has been running very well of late with 2 wins and 2 places from the last 4 runs in decent company. This however, is a lot hotter than those handicaps and he has earned much quicker speed figures on the fibresand at Southwell than he has on polytrack.

Mahadee
Very decent handicapper who has won off a mark of 90 before and won a conditions race last time but the opposition there wasn't great. He'll certainly give it his best shot but fear he'll be outclassed here. His record on right handed tracks is nowhere near as good as his record left handed either and in 3 visits to Kempton, he's never landed the e/w money.

Orchard Supreme
A regular on the all-weather in recent years and earned another conditions race last time out in a decent time beating Councellor. I suspect he'll confirm placings over that rival but I'm not sure he's up to beating some of the better class horses here. Connections in a tough place as he's too high in the weights to win handicaps but not quite good enough to win events like this, he'd be of interest back in a conditions event.

Philario
Finished ahead of Orchard Supreme last time out in a conditions race at Lingfield and looked like the winner heading for home but was just headed near the line. I think this trip will suit and he is 1 from 1 around here but that win came as a 2 year old.

Premio Loco
Class animal from a top trainer who is 4 from 5 on the AW and 2 from 2 at Kempton. Came back from a break after running in the Cambridgeshire with a win in a small field conditions race. He should come on a lot for that run but a half length beating of Red Somerset is questionable but I accept he's a lot better than that. Is going to take some beating.

Samarinda
A great advert for his talented small trainer, won nearly a third of his races on the all-weather. He has 3 wins around Kempton and bar a period last year when he was out of form (getting beaten heavily by Premier Loco) but he's been back in form of late. He was well backed last time at Lingfield and was desperately unlucky, Micky Fenton opting to take a blocked passage and hitting the button a tad too late. Adam Kirby is back on today (won on him over C&D) and he should give a good account of himself.

Shake On It
Lowly handicapper who is vastly out of his depth.


I think Premio Loco is going to be very very hard to beat and I wouldn't dare lay him but I don't think he's value at 4/5 given he was hardly emphatic on his reappearance. I'd rather back Samarinda to place at 4/1 than back Premio Loco to win at 4/5, I think he was terribly unlucky last time out, he loves Kempton and he's pretty straightforward. I might throw a forecast together with Premio Loco, Samarinda and Philario.

A very tough race though and not one to get heavily involved in, I'd only be amazed if Shake On It were to win.
 
well, Nationwide docu was great, brought back memories, not all good ones either...Ester Rantzen :(

anyway - good old Kempton manages to fly the flag for racing yet again tomorrow...thank god for the all weather I say...we really are lucky to have it I think

I am going for Samarinda in this race...stable in good form and just on last time out runs has argueably the beating of the fav Premier Loco on a line through Red Somerset...yes I know you are all expecting PL to run better than that...but which horse is value?...PL @ 1.9 or Samarinda @ 24.0...bit of a no brainer really...only one horse to back to win long term here...no it's not PL :rolleyes:

so whilst you guys [not you Stan] are convinced the fav is a good thing...best of luck..

by the way

the analysis is really nice to see...we should do this more often..we will have to wait for another decent AW race and do it again. :cool:

goodnight and good luck

and may your God go with you

quick quiz question...who used to finish his show with that line?

first one with the answer gets a night out with Esther :blink:
 
EC1 said:
by the way

the analysis is really nice to see...we should do this more often..we will have to wait for another decent AW race and do it again. :cool:
Click to expand...

I agree and there's another Listed race on Tue which the BHA rearranged from Wolverhampton's abandoned meeting on Thursday night :D
 
Having seen the prices I won't be taking the 4/5 on the fav, but I do see him as an outstanding winning chance. Bet would be a fcast to beat either Orchard Supreme & Samarinda, who does look overpriced at 20+.
 
we will go for it Tuesday Stan

Steve - yes fav has got a good chance...but I could only see it winning this about 35/40 out of every hundred..which makes the price a complete no no
 
Premio Loco wins from Philario and Bonus. Sadly I didn't catch it but sounded easy for Premio Loco.

How the exacta paid 10/1 is beyond me.
 
Premio Loco won easy as expected. Given a couple of backhanders to liven him up but won with plenty in the tank.

Very nice animal.
 
well done winners

I just didn't like the fav at all...just a feeling..but I couldn't have gone in at that price

we will have another crack Tuesday..hopefully will be a bit more competetive
 
Orcahrd Supreme was given a very easy ride, looked at one point as if hughes was trying to play hide & seek, really low in the saddle but no drive.
 
Premio Loco fav for the Winter Derby at Lingfield today. Stepping up in trip, but seems to have it within his grasp given his preferred running style, breeding etc. 5/2 is not a massive price, probably about the right price for me, main concern for me is the short straight at Lingfield. Baylini runs well here and around 66/1 there would be worse chances in the race, throw in Mahadee as another outsider with a chance.
 
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