Craven Meeting

R

reet hard

Senior Jockey
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Aug 4, 2011
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Free Handicap
Arctic Sound won a strongly run, classy c/d handicap last backend, so no suprise he carries top weight. Ryan Moore rides the other stable entrant but, imo, for nothing more than to ensure a good pace.
6/1 generally, though I managed better in a couple of places this morning.

Fielden Stakes
Crack On finished just behind Western Australia in the Futurity, after the Coolmore horse had stolen about 6l on him with a burst of speed around 3 out.
That consideration aside, the Gosden horse is more likely to be up for this (only has entries around this trip) while WA is entered in both Derbys, and looks more of a work in progress.
7/2 generally.
 
I find 3yo races at this time of year a waste of time trying to second guess. I wish all the best to anyone who spends any time trying to find winners. I'm happy to look later at the form and try and decipher the result.
 
3yo handicaps in particular can be nigh on impossible at this time of year as horses that have been backward last season suddenly mature and make a mockery of the form.
 
I learned that from painful and expensive experience, jinnyj, many years ago. It must be 20 years since I backed anything seriously in a 3yo hcap before royal ascot, unless they've already done something gobsmacking at 3.

But tomorrow I've backed Tommy Taylor (all-age hcap) at 8/1. I reckon if he's anywhere near his very best form he wins. (Not sure how much I can stress 'if'!)
 
Can't agree with the above sentiments - at all!
In the Free Handicap over the past 10 years, there has been just 1 winner @ 25/1; the highest SP from the other 9; just 11/2.
The 3yo sprint h'cap on the 2nd day shows much the same pattern.
As with most things racing & betting, if you set off by looking for problems, you're sure as hell going to find them; and that from someone who's been around a while himself. :D
 
reet hard said:
Can't agree with the above sentiments - at all!
In the Free Handicap over the past 10 years, there has been just 1 winner @ 25/1; the highest SP from the other 9; just 11/2.
The 3yo sprint h'cap on the 2nd day shows much the same pattern.
As with most things racing & betting, if you set off by looking for problems, you're sure as hell going to find them; and that from someone who's been around a while himself. :D
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That suggests that the market is the more reliable indicator to the likely outcome of the race than the form, which would back up what jinnyj and I are saying, so are we really disagreeing?

Also - without knowing the records - I'd suggest there's rarely any more than eight runners in the Free Hcap these days and there's unlikely to be many longshots in the market.

I stopped studying the race at least 20 years ago as a waste of time but that's my personal experience of it. I think the last winner I backed was Panama Canal back in the 70s. And when was the last winner that made any impact in the Guineas despite the inevitable hype that surrounds a moderately impressive winner?

Those last points are obviously irrelevant in the big scheme of things. But I do hope you find the winner, reet. As I say, I genuinely admire anyone who can find it in the form book.
 
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^^^ a forum where forumites post their thoughts & disagree without vitriol - I think I've found Shangri La:)
 
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2017diary said:
^^^ a forum where forumites post their thoughts & disagree without vitriol - I think I've found Shangri La:)
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Not always the case, I can assure you, diary!

And for all the foregoing I decided to have a small punt in the Free Handicap since I was watching it on TV. I backed Shine So Bright (11/4) but take no credit for it, though, since bouncing about in the back of my head was Simon Rowlands's take on the race in his ATR blog and I'm always one to oppose a short favourite. That's losses on Tommy Taylor (non-trier) almost recouped and I'll probably try my luck again on the other televised races.

I'd have to say, too, that the Free Hcap panned out like anything but a handicap with them strung out like soft ground hurdlers. Was only the winner fit?
 
In the Fielden I've taken I'll Have Another at 11/1 w/o the favourite. I was tempted to take it at the full price since The Firm don't seem to mind their short-shots losing trial races but with only two places on offer anyway I'm happy to leave WA out of the reckoning. MJ has a great record in this race and SDS is the jockey trying to win just about every race going.
 
Tried to take 40s the Hannon/de Sousa filly in the Nell Gwynn but they kept cutting it. Eventually got 28s, 4 places. Just a shot in the dark really and I wouldn't be surprised if it disappointed here ahead of a big run when it matters. Hannon isn't averse to placed horses at big prices in Guineas.
 
Desert Orchid said:
but take no credit for it, though, since bouncing about in the back of my head was Simon Rowlands's take on the race in his ATR blog
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Fair play to SR. He also put up Qabala at the longer odds this morning. I decided I couldn't bet her with Atzeni on the other one for the same trainer and couldn't back that either.

The Hannon filly will come on a ton for the race and will carry some sickness insurance in due course (no Guineas entry). The jockey initially gave the others first run then when she looked like quickening he took a pull and was happy to let her come home under tender handling.
 
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Overwatered ground again,no chance that grounds gd/fm fields spreadout like washing the nell gwyn a second slower than the hadicap yet the field were strung out behind a sure sign of false ground as per usual..would be laughable if they put some more water on..

Another 3mm put on after racing,laughable stuff this is worse than last seasons farce gd/fm ground never to be seen ever again...
 
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gigilo said:
Another 3mm put on after racing,laughable stuff this is worse than last seasons farce gd/fm ground never to be seen ever again...
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Dubawi lost his Guineas to an inferior horse because the ground was like a road. I had futile hopes of taking on his son in the hope underfoot conditions might be similar this year. Fat chance.

The Abernant looks a nice ew race. I'm chancing Yafta who had some nice pieces of form last year. The Hackwood he won worked out ok.
 
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Breath Of Air 1.05 , can be forgiven his last run on account of his inexperince in what was only his 3rd racecourse appearance and, though poorly drawn, the market hasn't missed his fairly obvious chance. His trainer (and both sides of his pedigree) indicate he'll probably improve again for today's faster ground and (imo) he looks a very well-handicapped horse. Might pay the value seekers to put him in a f/c to beat Moyassar which pays c14/1 as I write.
The Craven looks good for Royal Marine which Soumillon indicated only ran in Meydan for a warm-up, and already a gp1 winner, he ought to take this comfortably. Encouraging that CS again travels for the ride.
Another shortie but, as my old boss was fond of saying " You can only pee with the c*ck you've got''.:)
 
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I hope I haven't goofed (again) in the Abernant. I got stuck into Gifted Master yesterday evening as he's clear top rated on my figures and if Tommy Taylor's no-show yesterday is an indicator of the form of the Ryan yard Brando has to be opposed although I don't think that's the case myself. But now I'm worried about GM following the trainer's comments in his Weekender stable tour today:

...if he runs well he could remain in Group races, but he's already 1lb lower than when winning the Stewards' Cup and the Wokingham would be an ideal race...
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Another few pounds down the weights would make him a good thing at Ascot.
 
Newmarket 5:20. Self Assessment. He's been castrated, and it can make all the difference. Two each way singles & and an each way double.
 
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