Currency Advice

betsmate

betsmate

At the Start
Joined
Dec 7, 2004
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Would be grateful for any advice about the strength of the pound vs dollar and the short-term future.

I have just dragged my arse through to the latter stages of a MTT poker tournament and picked up a decent number (for me) of US Dollars. I now have these sat in my online poker account. It is 2 years since I have even looked at the exchange rate and was shocked at how few pounds a dollar will get you. In fact I noticed that Friday was a pretty bad day for the currency (on the back of the Iran/Oil stories?).

Now I know we are not talking great sums here, but is it worth waiting a little while until converting this to cash? The market appears in terminal decline, but perhaps had rallied slightly recently, before this latest dip?

Is anyone more knowledge about this than me? (surely :D :D :D ) Is there likely to be a recovery next week? Should I just bite the bullet? Is a horse-racing forum a bizarre place to ask this?

Any advice would be gratefully received. Ta.
 
I would expect a slight rebound next week.

Friday was a bad day with the Nigerian incident on top of everything else. US interest rates rose again this last week by a quarter percent and possible more on the horizon.

If I were you I hold on for a little while as I think the dollar will get a little stronger in the next week or so. Usually there is over selling on bad news and then a rebound follows.

My advice is free which is an indication of what it is really worth ;)
 
I would be a bettor that the Dollar will weaken in the medium term and I have seven main reasons to believe this.

1. Balance of trade Deficet is growing.
2. Balance of Payments deficet likewise.
3. Consumer confidence is lowering.
4. China artificially delating the value of it's currency.
5. Effectively a lame duck presidency with less of a clue on economics than foreign policy.
6. Interest rates are unlikely to be increased again in the short term.
7. New Chairman of the Fed is less capable than Greenspan.

I unfortunately also have dollar based assets and wish I had them converted to Euro.
 
The Treasury has said it won't stand in the way of a weaker dollar.

I think that the US has decided that its economy is in danger of weakening (mainly due to reason 3 mentioned by An Capall above). They understandably reckon that a weaker dollar might give the economy the kick up the arse that is sure to need.

As An Capall mentions, the China situation is very important also.
 
I have a fairly serious wedge (by my standards)coming to me at the end of next year.I am seriously considering investing it in the dollar -especially if its$2 to the pound at that stage.Am I mad.
 
At the end of the year you may not be mad.

I think you would be mad to do so now. I read a lovely quote this morning. It went something like:

"The US administrations will sit on the sidelines, giving a couple of quotes now and then that they still want a strong dollar, but really not mean it."

Sure, there may be a further hike in the Fed Funds rate this summer, but the gap between Asian and dollar interest rates should start to decline, and people are going to start looking at a seriously over-valued dollar.
 
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