After mondays card i would keep to very small stajkes again,total winning distances on monday were over 40ls and the winner to second was over 45ls it worked out 86% of the runners got beat 10ls and strangely a lot of the winners had no track form,the going they had as standard to slow probably about right but lots of horses with previous trajk form beaten out of sight..Usually happens when the colder weather gets into the surface,then it becomes a guessing game on which horses prefer the track riding slow,what it seems to do is horses that have run wel lthere with fast times don't run to the same form when its a lot slower,the appleby horse on monday in the maiden was a good example,running over 5 seconds slower than previous run over the straight 5fs which is just inexplicable even if track was on slow side..Had a few things marked off but prices really only just about worth token bets
Southwell 12.40
Boots n spurs 8/1 365
Boots n spurs i put up at catterick end of november 2017 at 33/1 won at 12/1,seems to have totally regressed hasn't even placed in 12 months and not run much for a horse that usuially races alot,only glimpse of recent form a 7th of 12 at chester off 65,so not much to recommend it.This will be its first ever 0-65 last time it ran at swell was off 70 in march,tomorrow off just 55 and thomas ladd takes off another 5 pound,has never been that consistent on the aw anyway only won three but scott dixon does have a habit of getting these older horses back into some sort of form,like sir geoffrey 13 now but he gets it back to winning races every season.Boot's n spurs is 9yr old now,it could only be a token bet on what its shown lately the slow surface might suit it and the betting will be interesting as been massive prices throughout the season may just have gone but worth a little bet to find out..if it doubles in price or doesn't halve then will probably reflect its chances..
1.40
Tricky dicky 8/1 ppower
Tricky dicky has never won over the 5fs here just the 6fs so a small negative to startt with,although its last two runs here has been 2nd to foolaad off 84 in a 0-105 and again end of august to moonraker off 84 again in a 0-90..it's winning form is over the 6fs here tomorrow drops into a 0-85 and although the 5f runs look rock solid those races have been run in fast times so there will be a ? over the surface presuming it's slow,claimer takes off 5 so down to 78 so marks ok..Am also not sure how the draw will work out either,didn't seem to be a lot in it on monday,appleby has the fav improving with decent sire stats and josephine gordon gets back on arzaak has decent record on it,appleby horse drawnj in the middle and tricky dicky and arzaak have two high draws 12,14 also jack taylor was looking exposed then ran a decent 4th in a 0-100- at epsom sires invincible spirit and again drawn next to the two highs 13 maybe some small forecasts,but its a very competitve race with a few that could improve for surface..
12.5 betfair.
2.15
Sylvia's mother 7/2 hills/skybet/365/lads/victor/corals/boyles/betfred/totesport 4/1 ppower
A nursery with not much to go on,think the johnston horse is well handicapped on its debut run,not as good since so impossible to weigh up and sire animal kingdom no stats on surface,ones already been backed sir ox,shown little but out of 119 rated oxbow on dirt so off a nothing mark could well figure and on right surface and different trip.Sylvias mother lot more experienced than most of these with eight runs,really only its last run when it won that showed its potential,winning at catterick over 6fs by 2 1/2ls high 60 horses behind so on the figures off 75 looks about right..Have looked at the other runners behind and they havn't gone on to do much,but the 2nd won a claimer in france then was 5th in a listed race,so maybe better than first appears also the time of the catterick race looked ok compared to the older horses rated upto 75 maiden was quicker although as mentioned the rest in the maiden havn't done much since.Sire of sylvias mother foxwedge has a 33% strike rate on the surface so could improve for it,although is drawn poorly in 10,just a small bet to see if it can back the last run up ior even improve..it's probably one to follow but that could be back on turf if it flops on the swell surface.I wouldn't give up on it if draw beats it as 33% sire stats do stand out,plus the very slow conditions will be a totally different test especially if misses the break..
9/2 generally..
