Wolves 7.30 Thursday prices up with hills
Dubai Elegance 16/1 365 12/1 betfred/betway/unibet/skybet generally
Dubai elegace was rated 80 whe with SBS then joined derek shaw,downward curve tll winning on tenth run for him off 48 o the turf even though that was a class 5 0-70 ran ok in a 0-75 two races later so looked like might be able to wi some more races in low grade races..Hadn't run since december then reappered over tomorrows c/d had poor draw in 11,race was lost straight awa as jock dropped straight out the back,got nowhere near first two in the race but was perfectly respectable run finishing fifth,that was a 0-60 tomorow a 0-55..Again has the same fate draw 11 of 13
so maybe same sort of result,although drops into a 0-55,another thats worth keeping in notebook if draw beats it,wouldn't surprise me of went off favourite even though drawn in the carpark,i was looking for some pace in the race as it looks like most of these are hold ups which also maybe against dubai elegance..But as i think it will probably be 5-6/1 later in the day may as well put it up now..only pace angle i could see was Brockley rise not well in with dubai elegance onlast run,but could get lucky and an easy lead..6/1 maybe in running lay.
Do some small ew multiples
7.0 Wolves Foxy forever 16/1 victor/hills
Bit of a veeran now Foxy forever,very rarely wins now only one win fro last 28 runs that ws in june off 79 and last aw win was october 2017
still running respectably in these sort of races even if not winning,back in october ws second over tomorrows c/d off 78 in a 0-85 and followed that up with a second at newcasle in a 0-80..Ran ok at kempton not getting a ru,then last time out different headgear,so back to tb tomorrow,realistically place chances if runs to october form..wighams not had much luck lately but in these aw handicaps has a 25% strike rate.
Southwell 4.0
Emojie 4/1 365/victir/hills/betfred(4 places) Fascinating spirit 28/1 hills/ppower/sportsbook/betfred
A terrible classified stakes race emojies not shown a lot in nine runs but best run was here over tomorrows c/d,not drawn great in 12 and jockey has had over 200 rides and just 10 winners,the thirds franked the form from the race behind clipsham tiger so hopefully miht be open to a squeak of improvement and olce chances..
Fascinating spirt,betting wil be interesting eleven runs and jut rated 44 has come from A j martins stable and joined marjorie fifes stable,even though rated 44 was second in a 0-65 in dundalk infront of a horse called Al batal in october, that came over here and beat some of tomorrows runners like favourite crazy spin.. Also ran ok in another 0-65 in that october again at dundalk,finishing 6th then joined marjorie fife came last at wolves,fly leapt the stalls and left,obvously has a bit to prve but on dundalk rns form coparitve to these and probably more interesting the sire
fastnet rock has an 18% strike rate on this surface..Trainer hardly has any winners she's on a very poo run jus 4/172 runners so would want to see loads of money for a stable totally out of form especially in such a poor race..
I put candesta up at a huge price last season and was backed like it couldn't lose for the last two seasons its won on the 20th and 21st of december in handicaps,this in theory is a weaker race than those races it won but been nearr last than first in every run recently,a leap of faith required trainers totally out of form but at 33s maybe worth some coppers as saver.
4.30
Liamba 7/2 ppower/sportsbook 100/30 hills Almurr 10/1 365/unibet
Liamba is one of those horses when i see it running i usually ignore it as rarely wins,has been very consistent i these races at swell recently so looks frame material again with others to ptove theselves on the surface,obvious ew chances.
Almurr poor profile 1/19 and that win was on the turf,was rated 81 in june now just 64 runs good races like some runs in 0-70s this season with places or close up but then disappointing when dropped into class 6s,will give it one chance with first time run on fibresand in a 0-65,sire dandy mans 14% on surface so could run well if anywhere near those 0-70 runs.
