Southwell 6.40
Bellevarde 25/1 victor
Not been in great form Bellevarde plenty of racing now as 7yr old 56 races so on downgrade,hasn't won since October 2019 when winning off 73 best run last turf season was 4th off 75 in a 0-85 at windsor and shown nothing since..Mark has tumbled down now to just 65,ran last night finishing 6th at wolves over 5fs,was passing horses on the bridle at finish then got hampered 1/2 furlong out,might've been third..I was hoping it would run again in this grade and get some massive prices,but Richard Price has him entered again at swell,so sort of forced into having a small bet on it,doesn't look the right race has won at swell but over 6fs won off 72 in January 2019,a weaker race than tomorrows' race and this is 5fs..
With the claimer taking off 7 down to just 58 tomorrow but running against 5f swell specialists and they are in form Mulzim,Fantasy Keeper and Mondammej,the most interesting runner in the race is Mondammej long term i think this could be half decent...On debut won at Newcastle over 6fs,that night beat two next time out winners hacking up,they are now rated 71 and 70 and the winning time was only .09 slower than Astro Jakk rated 85,that nights run suggested Mondammej could be anything..You couldv'e put it on 85 just based on that run on the times that night,since has just pulled its races away beaten in a two horse race and then last time out didn't get a great run although faded at finish in a 0-85..
Once they get this horse settled he will be far better than its current mark of just 81 looks thrown on that debut run,it might click tomorrow sire
stats aren't very high 11% but 17% over 5fs,seems strange that he hacked up on debut but last two races has not got home over 5fs or 6fs,i will be following this one through the turf season...even if it again bombs out as could yet be a turf horse.
