Southwell 1.45
Silver Nemo 25/1 sportsbook/ppower/victor 22/1 betfred 22/1 20/1 generally Galeophobia 11/1 hills/betfred/betway 10/1 generally 12/1 365
An interesting little race,wouldn't like to discount anything,Swinton Noon so far the only runner guaranteed to get trip on this track has won over a mile here ,the fav switches to fibresand progressive,Woke Media is off a nothing mark not done much but out of Kentucky Derby winner Orb so switching to surface could be a big improver,the Johnson horse got behind when it ran against Swinton Noon..
I was hoping to see Silver Nemo in a race where it was an ew bet and bigger prices,i don't know what its best trip is likely to be or surface,ran ok here when 3rd over 5fs a weak looking 0-65 but that race was 1.19 seconds quicker than the 0-60 for older horses,Silver Nemo then stepped up in trip running over 6fs at Wolves..That race was a 0-70 got behind but looked like it was staying on then stopped in run and slightly eased finishing 7th possibility it was the 4th best horse in the race,those last two runs staying on has enabled it too be now dropped four pound to 54..It may not like the 7fs and not sure which surface suits best,the sire is desperate Markaz just 2/59 on the aw and strangely no runners on the surface..a decent top class sprinter but a sire with very poor stats..The only positive i can see for this surface is that the grandsire Dark Angel is 17% on surface,although it could turn out Silver Nemo is a 6f horse not a 7f horse,will have a small bet on it..Won't be crossing it off as off this mark looks like it will win a race and maybe at a bigger price,just too many ? in tomorrows race to have a great deal of confidence and could be running against horses well in.Plenty of opprtunities to run in lower class races off current marks..
With all books going at least 8/1 then maybe a nice little trade,plenty of 9s as well can see it going off 5/1-11/2 tops.
Looked like it was going to win,then switched and eased at finish the track is so different at the moment surface is desperate out and out stayers needed there with colder weather,it might stay 7fs if the track was running atandard today the race was slow by 6 seconds usually you'd expect that race to be 3 or 4 seconds quicker
Will try Silver Nemo again,it's back at swell drops back to 6fs which might be more suitable and the surface has been quicker last few meetings but has run again since and reared at Kempton finishing stone last,as said the sire is dire Markaz just 2/62 now..Has dropped another pound to 53,that wolves run i mentioned previously has still kept working out that it was an eyecather in,maybe give it one more chance if it shows nothing tomorrow as that was its best run by a long way at wolves and in a 0-70..pieces are taken off after running in them last time out.Desert Boots is 11/2 in this race yet Silver Nemo upsides it in that four horse race where it faded..Unless its a complete non trier i can't see why this should be going off bigger than 10-12/1 tops..based on its two runs at thew track..
The other Galephobia has shown very little two poor runs on the turf then got beat in a three horse race at swell after a 6 month break was beaen 4ls and faheys other runner was 25/1 and 2nd,so the form looks very weak..The horse looked in need of the run,looks to have plenty of scope and even though looked beaten 2fs out,lost no more ground at finish, it runs off 60 jock takes off three,the time of the race wasn't a lot slower than the 6f race Tashbeeh ran here thats 6/1 but at weights the Fahey horse would look well in with that one..Hard to get precise goings at swell as they see to be changing every otherday so i could be wrong but as it's so lightly raced will have a little bet on that as well off just 57 and the least exposed runner in the race..
