Newmarket 2.20 Saturday
Fearby 11/2 victor 4 places skybet 5 places
The £150,000 sales race for 2yr olds,Fearby has the best form 2nd in a group 3 and a 3rd and 4th in group 2s',won a listed race so far on softish grouns at Sandown in what looked a decent time...There is nothing in the race that has contested those sort of races so far although this race for some reaso rarely goes to form as previus seasons how,the ground looks like being soft maybe even slower,om sire stats that would be a big negative Havana Gold..Havana Gold is a decent sire over 5fs and good ground,on gd/sft sire is just 5% and on soft ground just 4% so would be unbackable on those stats,so 6fs and soft ground on stats then you are betting against them,the Sandown run suggests that softer ground is ok over 5fs but whther the combination of 6fs and sot will suit is a speculatve guess..It must be worth bet to find out at current prices,and the other runner looks like it miht be open ti iprvement Tatsumaki,has won 2/2 recently good time on debut at Newbury bear 83 rated Firth Of Clyde although that runer is still a maiden after five runs..Another weakish sire Charming Thought although has had 2/17 winners on soft griund ad at 7/1 looks like it should run well..A hug field last season the winner came up the middle while all the others came stands side from their 14 and 18 draws they have options in a huge field..might look through again see of there's a rag in this as always get big ptices hitting the frame.
3.50
River Nymph 7/1 skybet 6 places Aldaary 7/1 hills/victor 13/2 skybet 6 places
The eighteen runner heritage handicap,if the draw comes up high which is quite possile we are going to see some right prices,only one in the top secven of the betting in double figures,earlier in the season River Nymph won one of these c/d races off 100 that was in may and the low draws never figured although most of the runners finished up the middle and that was 27 runners..River Nymph still only 12 lifetime runs,has run twice since both good runs 4th to Kinross in a group 3 and then last time out finished on the bridle at Newbury in a listed race..returns here off 104 if the draw isn't a negative then obvious place chances at worst..
Aldaary only just 7 runs,three here over c/d a wi and then two fifths in huge fields on fast ground in the Buckingham Palace and the Moet and Chandon perfectly respectable runs and so far wins have come on softer ground,so a possibility that ground may have been too quick..Sire Territories best stats are on sooft ground at 25% so the more rain the better may suit..Horses like Escobar hardly ever runs a bad race closely matched with two of the favs on form and even Symbolize ran well in the listed race that River Nymph was unlucky in and could hit the frame at a big price as well..
