Ayr
2.10
Maple Jack 9/2 365
Maple Jack has only had six runs,won a maiden last season as a 3yr old over 5fs at Musselburugh beating Ava Go Joe now rated 85 with Rory back in third that one although only rated 65 has run some good races this season in and out but if you just took that run at face value you'd have Maple Jack near mid 70s..That race though was wa back in April 2021,never ran again till january ths year at Southwell,didn't show much and then ran even worse at Swell another two weeks later,those races ran off 72 and 70,came out for first run on the turf since that win on the 18th of June at this track over 5fs in a 0-80..Didn't get a clear run in the last 1/2 furlong wouldn't have been to far off the winner,steps up to 6fs tomorrow,it looks like the ground will be gd/gdsft rain was forecast the horse probably needs it as well being out of Mayson.only a 0-65 tomorrow has been gelded since so wouldn't be overly confident but a repeat of that run in this 0-65 would have to run well..
Rain never came,so frustrating if they'd watered it wouldv'e been slower ground you couldn't make it up and the winner Little Muddy its penultimate run was the best form on good ground..
4.25
Captain Corcoran 20/1 ppower/sportsbook 4 places 16/1 generally 4 places
Have just checked the Ayr forecast and not sure the rain has hit,last night when i checked it had estmate of over 20mm,will be very irrutting as my other bet Maple Jack was relying on that as well not 20mm necessarily but at least need gd/gdsft,am just hoping there is enough because they won't water and if the rain diesn't come then it will be decent ground..Captain Corcoran is one you would just put a line through,rated just 50 running in a 0-55 5f sprint if the ground doesn't change then on previous form has very little chance,if it rains then it has an ew chance..It hasn't won since August 2020 but at least has form on softer ground,has had two runs so far this season 9/9 and 11/16 trainers out of form and jockeys on a nightmare run..It's also had two aw runs since its last turf runs from last season both well beaten,but its last three runs last season were all on gd/sft and soft it was 3/3/3 two of them 0-65s and a 0-60 went off 3/1 and 4/1 fav in two of those races but 20/1 tomorrow 16/1 elsewhere..if there's been enough rain and the going gets changed to gd/sft /soft it might just out run its prices..
And of course as soon as the stable realized the griund wouldn't be soft they took this out,it really is unbelievable 22mm if rain predicted they got less than when watered..
