Bullace 16/1 generally 24s betfair
There has supposedy been a bit of rain it says soft on the going report,will be surprised it it's anywhere near soft by 4.30 or even start of racing as it's been decent weather,hopefully gd/sft so will just have a token bet on Bullace,very exposed and sire Toranado is a gd/fm sire very poor stats on soft and average 11% on gd/sft yet 30.8% on firm..
Last win was off 84 at Newmarket as a 3yr old in April 2021,then ran third to Mosthadaf and Highland Avenue on very soft ground in a listed race got a stinking rise of 13 pound for that run,then only even one respectable run was when 5th of 6 to Mosthadaf again beaten 5ls again on /heavysoft ground,just fading in the last 100 yards..Started this season on 102 did nothing till dropped to 90 then a strong finishing 2nd but only a class 3,ran another poor race 4th of 5 and then last time out a respectable 3rd at chester in a class 2..Non of this form will be good enough to win,so although am not going to take those two listed runs at face value am going to take the view gd/sft ground it may run a little better off 89 has only ever run twice on anything with soft in and those were the different class listed races,may just be regressing or unreliable but its last run was a big improvement..Brunch was also in that listed race and Bullace has a 9 pound turnaround for the 2 1/2ls it finished behind it,if you can take it at face value on desperate ground..
Going still looks very slow at Donny so would add Symbolize to that shortlist now,hasn't won too often but loves soft ground and run some great races at scot runner up to Aldarry twice last season on soft when the field was spreadeagled if grounds that slow looks obvious ew bet as well,i thought it wouldv'e dried out by now a bit annoying as i think my two wanted it just gd/sft at the very worst so a little saver ew on this at 8/1 as well.
Bullace got placed got 20/1 ew and git 7s 5s and 4s 3/4/5 places so will settle for thar nice drift on betfair,think Brunch need the run,an absolutely dire race for its class anfd ground didn't look that bad for the last race slow by 1.6 seconds plus Brunch beat Bullace in that Sandown race..I never took the long lay off into account,he seems to be pretty crap at placing this horse recently..
