Dante Stakes

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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It's been 8 years since a Dante Winner won the Derby and by chance the horse is question was ridden by Frankie Dettori

History could/will :0) repeat itself on Thursday when Frankie puts the leg over the classy handicap winner Jack Hobbs.

The main danger and the form horse of the race is without a doubt the Racing Post winner Elm Park.

Under normal circumstances Elm Park would be a short priced fav for this but this Jack Hobbs is a monster

His performance at Sandown was like something out of the Book of Frankel the way he devoured the ground up.

I've seen races before like this where horses are made to look special when the opposition has been moderate but Sandown IMO wasn't one of them.

I don't know what AOB's plans are for John F Kennedy but if I were him I'd rather keep the money than pay the fare across the Irish Sea for this very ordinary overrated lump of lard.

AOB has worked miracles in the past and won the Dante several times but he's got more chance of turning the Irish Sea into red wine than JFK winning this.

JFK 7/2 is the lay of the decade............his form is very moderate and he certainly never beat what he beat anywhere nearly impressive enough to be even suggesting he's a Group horse.

I am firmly in the Jack Hobbs camp. He has that Zenyatta touch that gets the blood going and you just know he's all class.

I expect him to treat Elm Park & Co in exactly the same manner as he did the much weaker opposition at Sandown and hack up

Jack Hobbs 9/4 an absolute steal
 
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Would be nice to have a really good horse, especially as he's from a non-Northern Dancer line. He's already stayed 10f so the Dante should pose no problems. Will he stay 12f? Being by Halling should create few issues as long as there is enough stamina on the mare's side: but this is where I worry. The name I'm drawn to is Nagaika (his 5th dam), the dam of the tough colt Connaught who stayed 12f but was probably better at 10f. His half-sister was by Welsh Pageant and she was then sent to Main Reef (total Joel breeding) to give us Jack Hobbs' unraced great granddam. Welsh Pageant can't have increased the likelihood of stamina and while I have no problems with the stamina of Main Reef he was not a top-class horse or sire (though you can have a field day on that analysis with Elm Park). But the next move was Don't Forget Me, who was a miler through and through. I know the stamina quotient is pumped up by Nashwan's son Swain but if you look at JH's dam the best horse she has so far produced was more stoutly bred than JH but seemed suited to 9f and maybe 10f. I'd worry that he'd get a fast-run 12f.
Will be fascinating to see Elm Park against him on Thursday. Good luck.
 
Mum Swains Gold..even when the sire is stouter than Halling..doesn't get 12f horses..so i don't see Jack winning the Derby.

The 10.4f at York... with a slight rise to the finish line in the last two furlongs is a decent test..probably equates to an 11f level track test

this is no gimme for him..clearly he's a top horse..but its a race for watching given the test is outside what his breeding suggests is ideal against the level of horse he will face now running in a race more fitting with his ability.
 
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I'd love to say I was too young to remember Connaught Eleanora but I didn't need any assistance from google to remember Sandy Barclay riding him for Noel Mureless and Lester mowing him down on the brilliant Sir Ivor. At least my memory is still intact lol

While breeding is very important and you make a good point that there's a difference between getting the trip in a slow run affair and a fast run affair I have absolutely no worries with this fellow on that score.

At Sandown in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Postponed set a fair old gallop and he Western Hymn and Chanock Chase had a right ding dong battle up the straight.

They clocked a time of 2m 10.25s while Jack Hobbs with Frankie doing very little on board bar a shake of the reigns and a bit of hands and heels clocked a time of 2m 10.61s carrying only 1 lb less.

He did take a fair grip early doors using up a fair bit of energy which never does any horse any favours.

With that run under his belt Frankie should find it easier to settle him If they decide to go off in front on Elm Park all the better.

Elm Park is obviously useful but his form doesn't scream Derby winner to me as Aloft and Nagfaa don't look anywhere near top drawer.

So for me it comes down to the use of the eye and this Jack Hobbs looks pure class to me.

Right now there is only one Jack Hobbs to be found on Wikipedia by the end of the 2015 flat season I expect there to be two :)
 
I don't think his breeding suggests anything

The mare has only had 4 other foals and one of them won over 11 furlongs twice.

There's simply not enough evidence to suggest Jack Hobbs will or wont stay but the way he flew up the Sandown Hill I can't see York being a problem

The Derby is for another day and opinions are best reserved until after the Dante.
 
After reading some excellent analysis from Gigilo here I took 66/1 on Jack Hobbs to do the Sandown/Epsom double.Another 48 hours of dreaming then reality kicks in...
 
York clearly isn't stiffer than Sandown but my point was that at York..its against horses of his level..whereas at Sandown it wasn't. Obviously there is nothing concrete there and if he were 5/1 for the Dante i'd risk it...i'm not setting anything in stone re this horse particularly as i've been looking forward to him running since he ran its first race.

Don't get me wrong..this horse has been on the radar since its first win as far as clock watching is concerned..a very exciting prospect..particularly when you see the splits on the day

Your comparison with Western Hymm is the wrong one re time though..one aspect that had me scratching my head initially due to the poor figure and final speed figure Western Hymm earned after appearing to be involved in a race that should have given a big figure..but didn't

Its not untill I split the times into 3 segments did WH poor overall time for class explain itself.

These are the splits for all races that day..i have used Jack's race with and without him

0 to 2.66f2.6f to 8f
Master Apprentice36.769.926.30
Western Hymn35.568.826.00
Brandybend34.271.227.70
Jack Hobbs34.769.926.00
Rotherwick34.370.328.14

<tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]8f to Fin[/TD]

</tbody>

Western Hymm's race was a typical slow/fast/slow race where final time is damaged within the middle section by them travelling faster than even pace there..it looks visually like a true run race but then gets you scratching your head wondering why the final time is poor compared to abilty. One of the most famous one's was when Doyen won the KG.

The interesting comparison is with Master Apprentice..a race where the overall time tells you nothing at all....a race that was slow for 3 furlongs then near to par from then on.

Jack Hobbs ran 2 seconds quicker than that horse for the first 3 furlongs..ran the middle section the same..and then ran quicker late. Jack Hobbs has near on run even pace throughout.

thats impressive..Master A is a 105 horse on that run according to BHA ratings..so JH is clearly a good bit better to run so much faster early and still run faster later..with still some petrol left.

Jack Hobbs could be a monster..then again its probably just figure juggling nonsense.
 
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Good point Suny but Buick will know the time of day with the horse anyway

I had a look to see if there were any clues but the owners names as a group mean nothing to me

Anyone know who the owners Bailey, Hall & Hood are?

I was offered almost 10 times what I paid for a horse from the late Mel Smith but wouldn't have sold for 50 times what I paid.

Buying a horse is easy buying someone's dreams can be near impossible
 
Hood is Gosden's missus.

Only put up my opinion of the Jack Hobbs pedigree. Found it interesting with all the Joel horses in the tail line. Cecil will have trained 1 or 2 of them but they weren't any good.

Yes, would be good to have another Jack Hobbs in Wikipedia but he will not surpass the Master who's already there.
 
Elm Park looks more a Leger type than a Derby proposition, imo, and I'd be surprised if there aren't 1 or 2 too speedy for him here.
 
Dont Forget Me's dam won over 12f, admittedly at Tramore even if was on Oaks Day as a 4yo. He got a Belmont Stakes placed horse though is a better broodmare sire, Missunited being his best and she had no stamina worries.
So he might not be the limiting factor stamina wise for Jack !
That all three love to gallop has to be a plus.
 
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have antepost on JFK for the derby from last autumn so hoping he can bounce back on better ground
 
I'm hoping so too. Many of AOB's have needed their first run and it was desperate ground. That day's winner has shown it was no fluke


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I think its fair to say that JFK needed his run last year and this..also in general AOB's need the run. On my figures this is a race with no stand out. I get these figures for the main ones

Jack Hobbs 107+ ease of win?
Golden Horn 111
JFK 115?
Ol Man River 115
Elm Park 116

Gosden is really playing down Jack H and there has been support for Golden Horn..which surprises me..if JH is the real deal i would have expected GH to be 10s+ here.

The clear value bet for me is Ol Man River who is twice the price of the others and the AOB fto effect has been ignored this time due to the really poor showing.

A really good renewal of this race...i think AOB will have it probably with JFK but at the prices i'm happy to have a go on OMR...a race to watch more than bet in.
 
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Rock solid form, imo, and (if he's supplemented) the placed horses have no chance of turning around the form in the Derby. The 75k fee would hardly be much of a gamble, either.
 
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Certainly looks that way Reet.
Indeed i imagine Gosden would prefer the Derby entries for his first two were reversed.
Coolmore horses must not have trained on.
Will they redirect Gleneagles to Epsom?
Interesting times ahead for sure.
 
No chance Gleneagles go to Epsom

I think Elm Park is worth ago at 8s. He was too close to the pace today and tired in the last furlong.
 
I wouldn't be so sure about him getting the Derby trip or him beating Jack Hobbs again in a big field round Epsom. No chance is what costs punters fortunes

Everything bar the winner seemed to be running a touch too free and were racing way to soon.

At no time did Jack Hobbs himself have any cover Frankie taking him 3 wide and turning for home his head hug to one side for some reason.....still a bit green perhaps?

Once the winner has gone past Jack Hobbs seems to get the message head straightens up and runs on well.

You would still have to favour the winner but a different course, different trip and plenty of cover, get him relaxed early doors, could bring out a much better performance from Jack Hobbs

I certainly wouldn't be rushing to take 2/1 about the winner after winning what looked like a race that started falling apart after 2 furlongs in front of him
 
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